Trying To Make Sense Of The Reactions Out Of Cannes - Awards Outlook
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Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Trying To Make Sense Of The Reactions Out Of Cannes
The Cannes Film Festival wrapped a few weeks ago and some films left with praise while others were eviscerated. Many more, though, received fascinating and divisive reactions… and with that we now begin to wonder, will any of these films end up in the Oscar race come next January?
Since 2019, the winner of the Palme d’Or has either won or been nominated for Best Picture with the exception of the year of Titane, a fairly unconventional film in all fairness. While this statistic does not guarantee Oscar success for the Palme d’Or winner, Anora will definitely be an Oscar heavy hitter. Anora received a positive reception from the jury and critics alike and director Sean Baker has received a narrative of which he is fairly due as a beloved filmmaker of very small films that have received only some Oscar attention. Not only will Sean Baker likely receive a great deal of Oscar Buzz, but Mikey Madison, who has been on the sidelines in a number of great films in the lead role, could definitely end up receiving a Best Actress nomination for this film.
At the exact opposite of expectations is Megalopolis, Francis Ford Coppola’s return to Hollywood, which seemed to get fairly panned by the critics and at this point does not even have distribution in the United States. The film seems entirely unmarketable; a movie like this had the potential to maybe pick up a technical award, but at this point this is one likely heading into an Oscar desert.
There were many other established directors that returned for films this year, from Kevin Costner who was also panned for his Western epic Horizon to Paul Schrader directing Oh Canada and David Cronenberg directing The Shrouds… receiving fairly lukewarm reception and therefore most likely to pass by the Oscar season without much of a mention.
The Apprentice is buzzed about quite a bit for being about former President and convicted felon Donald Trump and him taking legal action against the film, but at this point the reaction was fairly muted and resulting in no major studio backing the film. A movie with this type of controversy needs to be very good in order to be successful so this probably won’t make it to the Oscars.
Kinds of Kindness is the return of Yorgos Lanthimos, yet no longer with his writing partner Tony McNamara, so this will be earlier Lanthimos which is more like Dogtooth and The Killing of a Sacred Deer, both of which are not his most awards-friendly films and yet he now has a spotlight on him after his past few entries. Jesse Plemons also received the award at Cannes for his acting which will definitely keep the buzz going, yet this is an anthology film that covers various stories and these often end up missing out on Oscars attention.
Emilia Perez on paper sounds like an utterly crazy film but it was beloved by almost everyone and additionally bought by Netflix which means it will have a decent deal of awards attention. The entire cast won Best Actress because Cannes can do whatever they want, but this does mean they will all likely be considered.
The Substance will have the most interesting award trajectory as the reaction was some of the most positive, but this is also body horror which never ends up being considered by the Academy. However, the Oscars love a big time return for a major star and a come back narrative and Demi Moore would be perfect for that this year, potentially ending up in the Best Actress race.
One guarantee at this year’s Oscars is that Iran will not be submitting The Seed of the Sacred Fig for the Best International Film as the director was basically forced to flee due to this film, which exposes one of the flaws of the way that category is handled. However, the director, Mohammad Rasoulof, could likely get a great deal of awards and praise in other categories, and possibly be the international Best Director nominee which has been a common trend in recent years.
Andrea Arnold directed Bird and received a great deal of positive reception at the beginning of the festival but was then forgotten about by the end. However, with Barry Keoghan starring in the film, it is likely to catch some attention. Another film that could be in contention in the Best Animated Feature category would be Flow, which is not from a popular studio but with many animated films being sequels there is a chance that this could sneak in the same way of Robot Dreams this past year.
Like almost all of these articles, making predictions this early can always be a silly endeavor, but the Cannes Film Festival is where Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest ended up on the radar at this time last year so it can’t hurt to start thinking about it.