Predicting The Comedy Nominations At The Emmys - Awards Outlook
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Predicting the Comedy Nominations at the Emmys
For the next few weeks, the Emmys will be the main focus of this column with each week focused on a different subsection of categories. This week will be devoted to the Comedy category, which obviously faces controversy with issues differentiating whether or not the likely winner, The Bear, is truly a comedy (which was explored in a previous article).
There are eight nomination slots available for Best Comedy Series with five of them being definite locks. The Bear is the ultimate front runner with Hacks and Abbott Elementary nipping at its heels and hoping to take advantage of possible narratives of category fraud and Season 2 being released almost a year ago. To date, neither argument has slowed The Bear down in its first season and probably won’t slow it down here, either. An “old reliable” in nominations would be Only Murders in the Building which isn't bringing anything exciting in its third season, but still keeping the masses happy. Curb Your Enthusiasm will also definitely be honored for its twelfth and final season, the end of an era.
After those five definite nominations, the field is wide open for the last three slots. What We Do in the Shadows had been beloved by the Television Academy in the past, but its nominations have not been as prevalent in the past few seasons. Is the series losing its magic or will it have a resurgence? Time will tell, but it’s a likely nomination.
Palm Royale was panned by critics but beloved by audiences and that kind of mix could mean a potential nomination, especially with this cast likely getting some love… which could in turn cause some momentum for the series. Meanwhile, I’m a Virgo is also getting a great deal of awards buzz and is praised for its revolutionary and giant swings, but might be deemed too weird to grab a nomination.
It is both insane and unforgivable that Reservation Dogs has not been nominated for a Comedy Series Emmy; as it concludes with its third season, this is the last chance for the Emmys to do the right thing and therefore its likely to get a nomination. Another series that has inexplicably evaded a nomination is The Righteous Gemstones which has not missed a step in its first three seasons, but still manages to never be popular enough to get on the Emmys radar, which seems fairly strange.
The Gentlemen was one of the biggest surprises of the year and that response could easily lead to a nomination. This is Netflix’s only comedy unless you count Girls5Eva which is a much longer shot for the nomination even though its been given a lot of good will as a hit comedy.
The new season of The Boys might not be eligible this year, but its spinoff Gen V is. While it is possible, this show pales in comparison to The Boys and thus it doesn't have as easy of a path. The original Frasier was an Emmy darling back in the nineties and early aughts, but reboots don’t exactly do as well as their predecessor and this will probably be treated the same.
There are only five nominations available for Best Actor in a Comedy Series, but unfortunately that is all that is needed because even though there is some potential for upsets, the five nominations are pretty close to being set in stone. Jeremy Allen White is definitely set up for a win for The Bear with Martin Short and Steve Martin being reliably nominated as much as their show Only Murders in the Building. Larry David will also almost definitely be nominated in a way of honoring him both starring in and creating Curb Your Enthusiasm. Theo James was nominated last year for The White Lotus and therefore is on the radar for a series that is garnering quite a bit of buzz in The Gentlemen.
I’m a Virgo is a big question mark when it comes to Emmy nominations this year, but with Jharrel Jerome leading the series there is a chance that he could be an upset nomination after he won a few years ago for When They See Us. While the return of Frasier isn't a guarantee to be loved by the Emmys, Kelsey Grammar’s return performance could see a nomination for the sake of old times.
There is a solid chance that Reservation Dogs will be nominated for Best Comedy Series and perhaps it could overperform with a few other nominations as a make up for its past snubs. Therefore, maybe D’Pharoh Woon-A-Tair could be nominated, but it's not likely. While What We Do in the Shadows has gotten a ton of Emmy praise throughout its run, Kayvan Novak and Matt Berry have shamefully never been nominated for their performances. Thoulgh it does not seem likely this year, they will and should always be considered.
The category for Best Actress in a Comedy Series is going to be an absolute bloodbath with the three leading contenders all having won an Emmy recently and also all having never competed with each other. Ayo Edeberi in The Bear won in the Supporting category last year and Quinta Brunson won in the lead category last year for Abbott Elementary; now those two are facing off with a returning double-winner in Jean Smart from Hacks. All three are incredibly likely to win and, while The Bear is the frontrunner in most awards, these two are its greatest threat.
The last two slots have fairly likely contenders. Palm Royale might be a question mark for many Emmy nominations, but one of the most likely is Kristen Wiig for her role, who is flexing some new muscles and is achieving a great deal of goodwill. Selena Gomez had been famously snubbed and not nominated for her performance in Only Murders in the Building and ,with a weaker field than usual, she is likely to finally be nominated for this series.
There are only two potential upsets with Maya Rudolph getting a great deal of attention for her lead performance in the series Loot. She is often nominated for supporting and guest performances, but this is her chance to shine; she delivers in her role and a nomination would be a great way to honor her.
The other possible upset nomination would be Devery Jacobs for Reservation Dogs, though this would once again depend on if there is a tremendous amount of goodwill for a series that has consistently been passed over and ends up over-performing with makeup nominations.
In each supporting category there are eight spots open with the common trend over the past few years being the opportunity for one show to have several nominations in a way to honor the cast. That will be the case for Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series for The Bear. Count on Ebon Moss-Bacharach getting a nomination following his win and Oliver Platt also definitely getting a nomination coming up from the previous season of being the guest on the series. Two other actors from The Bear that are likely to get nominations but could still be considered long shots are Lionel Boyce and Matty Mattheson, neither of which have been nominated yet and both are deserving especially with Mattheson also being a producer on the show.
While Ebon Moss-Bacharach will probably be the winner for this category, Tyler James Williams will definitely pose the greatest threat for his third season performance in Abbott Elementary. Also on Abbott Elementary is Chris Perfetti who has been frequently circling a nomination, but has been unsuccessful and, while it has to eventually happen, this still might not be the year.
Only Murders in the Building has been described in this article as reliable for nominations and Paul Rudd could benefit. Curb Your Enthusiasm doesn't often feature in the supporting categories, but with this being its last season, JB Smoove could be here as a culmination of the work on his character or Richard Lewis who will be honored for his work after his recent passing. However, this is a crowded field and neither of those seem likely.
Carl Clemons-Hopkins has been nominated in the past for Hacks and, while his performance is definitely worthy, his character was sidelined quite substantially this year. Yet Paul W Downs has been given way more in terms of comedy on the same series and also often receives buzz, receiving several nominations for writing and creating the series, but never for his performance.
Saturday Night Live frequently sees performers in this category, but lately they have not been garnering as much attention from the Emmys. The two performers that are most likely to get this type of nomination are past nominees Bowen Yang and Kenan Thompson with Yang getting the edge, even though both are long shots. Harvey Guillen has been given a great deal of buzz for Emmy favorite What We Do in the Shadows, but much like most performers in this show he will most likely and unfortunately not be lucky.
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series is one of the rare categories where there really isn't a clear frontrunner, yet there are plenty of potential nominations. With things looking wide open, this could finally be the chance for twice-nominated Hannah Einbinder to finally win for her performance in Hacks, but her biggest competition will be series newcomer Meryl Streep to Only Murders in the Building. This will be the ultimate case of star power versus someone who has earned the win, no disrespect intended for Streep who deserves to be on the list, but Einbinder has put in the time.
Of most of the people being buzzed about in this category, the only past winner is Sheryl Lee Ralph in Abbott Elementary, who will undoubtedly be nominated again in addition to her co-star and past nominee Janelle James. The real question mark is whether or not Lisa Ann Walter from the same series will finally be nominated as she had been unjustly passed up numerous times.
With Ayo Edebiri ending up in Lead Actress, there is an opening in this category for supporting performances in The Bear with Abby Elliot and Liza Colon-Zayas being the most likely nominated. Molly Gordon is also a potential nomination, while every other performance category is going to see a win for The Bear, this will be the one category where it probably won’t succeed.
Another comedy series that could potentially still have multiple nominations is Allison Janney and Carol Burnett for Palm Royale. It is still going to be very curious to see how this series is received but these two actresses are legendary enough to be nominated on reputation alone.
Several other long shots in this category would be Ego Nwodim for Saturday Night Live, which is a series that has the potential to actually see no nominations for its performers. As stated before, Curb Your Enthusiasm frequently skips over its supporting performers for nominations, but Susie Essman could be nominated to honor her career on the show. While Paul W Downs has the potential to be nominated for Best Supporting Actor in Hacks, it seems a shame that his frequent scene and writing partner Meg Stalter might not get nominated as well as she deserves it and it would make sense from a narrative standpoint.
The nominations for the Emmys will be out in about a month and there are plenty of different opportunities, so we will see who will officially get nominated, with great excitement.