Predicting The Limited Series Nominations At The Emmys - Awards Outlook
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Predicting the Limited Series Nominations at the Emmys
The category of Best Limited Series has been one that goes more for popularity than quality in the past few years, but once in a while the two descriptions intersect (like last year's Beef) and that looks like the same will happen this year. The category could go several different ways now that Shogun shifted to Drama series, but the lead contender is becoming more and more likely to be the unsuspecting but absolute hit, Baby Reindeer. There is a slight controversy about the woman it’s based off of taking legal action against Netflix and the show, but that has not deterred the momentum in the slightest.
The show's greatest threat will be the fifth season of the anthology series Fargo which will definitely get a nomination and was the front runner for a while before Baby Reindeer’s popularity surged; it was hailed as a return to form for the beloved series.
Lessons in Chemistry was a show that made the occasional strange choice creatively, but is definitely beloved by audiences and is catching momentum through Brie Larson’s great central performance and star power. Another series propelled by a huge performance from a leading lady is Jodie Foster in True Detective: Night Country which received love from the critics, yet divisiveness from audiences; sometimes the middle could lead to a nomination.
The fifth nomination is a bit more up for grabs. Ripley was another Netflix series praised by many with Fellow Travelers being beloved, but criminally underseen. Masters of the Air is coming off of the popularity of the previous shows, Band of Brothers and The Pacific, which could give it that momentum.
Ryan Murphy often creates shows that lead to Emmy success and many performances in Feud: Capote vs the Swans could lead the series grabbing a nomination. The Sympathizer is another late-surging series that could see some recognition because of some of the standout performances that will be nominated.
Baby Reindeer is expected to dominate in several categories, including Best Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie with Richard Gadd giving a fantastic performance and also taking advantage of what was a more ambiguous race until the series took hold. Otherwise, John Hamm is expected to be nominated for his lead performance in Fargo and Andrew Scott will be nominated for Ripley.
Tom Hollander is the stand out playing the iconic Truman Capote in Feud: Capote vs the Swans and therefore he will also be nominated. Matt Bomer has been nominated in the past for revolutionary characters and this is likely to give him a nomination for his performance in Fellow Travelers.
While the five nominees are fairly obvious, there are a lot of potential surprises that could knock one of them out. While few people saw the TV movie Mr. Monk’s Last Stand, Tony Shaloub frequently gets Emmy consideration, including for this character, and so it is likely that he will receive another nomination.
The Sympathizer has been praised for its key supporting performance and its unique direction, but everyone is in agreement that the best discovery was Hoa Xuande and so this breakthrough performance could likely be honored. Michael Douglas was a crazy casting for the lead in Franklin as Benjamin Franklin, which years ago would be a lock of a nomination, but there has been an evolution that doesn’t always rely on star power.
Austin Butler and Callum Turner could see nominations for their performances in Masters of the Air, but would likely cancel each other out. Very few people heard of A Gentleman in Moscow, but there are past performances from Ewan McGregor that won from shows that no one heard of (see Halston).
There are some clear leaders for Best Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie, but also plenty of prospective nominations right on the outside that could definitely upset. Jodie Foster is a solid front runner for True Detective: Night Country, but a clear threat to her win is Brie Larson, who carries the show Lessons in Chemistry, and Juno Temple who sheds her comedic Ted Lasso with an impressive dynamic performance in Fargo.
Sofia Vergara will definitely be honored for her work in Griselda where she stands out and puts her whole passion into the series. Kate Winslet frequently achieves Emmy success and her performance in The Regime will be no different, but with the muted reaction to the series, she is less likely to win and is even on the bubble when it comes to a nomination.
The women that are knocking at the door for nominations are all legendary stars in projects that aren’t as well known. Naomi Watts has the best chance with a huge standout performance in Feud: Capote vs the Swans. Nicole Kidman is another performer that could achieve Emmy success even in a series like Expats that flew under the radar.
The television movie The Great Lillian Hall was loved by critics and seen by no one, and while the legacy of Jessica Lange could result in her being nominated, it’s not terribly likely. Mary and George is trying hard to campaign for awards and while it’s proving to be fruitless in most categories, Julianne Moore is the most likely to be nominated.
There are not a lot of potential nominations for Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie and so there is not a great deal of potential surprises, yet Robert Downey Jr is a clear front runner for his eye-catching performance of many different facets in The Sympathizer. There is no clear performance that is going to dethrone him, but still several potential nominees.
Lewis Pullman is being praised for his performance in Lessons in Chemistry along with Jonathan Bailey in Fellow Travelers. Joe Keery takes on a very different role in Fargo and will likely be honored. John Hawkes has a surprising performance in True Detective: Night Country.
Treat Williams recently passed and will likely receive a nomination that honors his work with what was a prominent performance in Feud: Capote vs the Swans. Finally, Hugh Grant will round out the nominations for his brief, but effective appearance in The Regime. There are other potential nominees, but this category already seems to have trouble getting to a list of seven.
Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie has a much larger pool of performances which leads to a great deal of potential upsets and combinations of seven nominations. Like other categories, it is likely that Jessica Gunning will be winning this category for Baby Reindeer and there is also that chance for a revolutionary and deserved nomination in the same series for Nava Mau.
Fargo is going to be a huge catalyst for many performances to be nominated, especially Jennifer Jason Leigh. Kali Reis had the difficult task of going toe to toe with the legendary Jodie Foster in True Detective: Night Country and she is up to the task, which will lead to her likely receiving a nomination.
There are many nominations that could go to the ladies of Feud: Capote vs the Swans with Diane Lane being the most likely to get a nod, but Chloe Sevigny also could grab a potential nomination. Elsewhere, Aja Naomi King has been getting a great deal of praise for her performance in Lessons in Chemistry and Sandra Oh will likely get a nomination for The Sympathizer.
The series throughout all these nominations that is a fairly big question mark is Under the Bridge. It is clear that its best chances for nominations are for Lily Gladstone and Riley Keough, who are no stranger to awards consideration and both give outstanding supporting performances, but the show could otherwise miss out.
The Emmy nominations are coming soon and it will be interesting to see what can change and turn around before then, but regardless there is a great crop of limited series to pick from.