Predicting The Drama Nominations At The Emmys - Awards Outlook
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Predicting the Drama Nominations at the Emmys
The Drama categories of this year’s Emmys were essentially deserts post-Succession with The Crown coming out the winner by default due to lack of competition. Since then, the meteor known as Shogun announced two new seasons and exploded into the race, blowing up almost every category with the show now being the frontrunner in multiple.
The Best Drama Series Emmy is almost certainly and deservedly going to Shogun for numerous reasons, including quality and popularity and the fact that it was leading the Limited Series race up until those additional two seasons were added. The Crown was the previous frontrunner and will definitely still receive a nomination.
The Morning Show and The Gilded Age are both high on the scale of popularity and so both will definitely be nominated, especially with The Morning Show being a past nominee in this category and a past winner in others. However, both are decried as ridiculous shows by the critics, which could affect Emmys, but often does not.
Slow Horses has entered its third season and has yet to be nominated for any Emmys, which seems absolutely insane to think about, but with this being a weak category, the series is finally getting its due with potential nominations in several categories. The Curse and Mr. and Mrs. Smith are two huge series that had their first season and, while they skirt the line between comedy and drama, they will likely be nominated here.
This leaves one more open slot that will likely go to one of three big-budget science fiction projects. Fallout is the most likely of the three to be nominated as it is the most popular and has been the most well received. The first season of Loki received several technical Emmy nominations and this season is also getting buzz, but it does not have the same buzz the first season had. Still, the series could be nominated for the collective two seasons of the series. Finally, there is 3 Body Problem which has an uncertain future and was fairly heady, which could affect its nomination chances.
Unlike Comedy, there are six slots for the lead performance awards, including Best Actor in a Drama Series with Hiroyuki Sanada of Shogun being a slight frontrunner, but plenty of competition nipping at his heels. These include Gary Oldman in Slow Horses, who is finally and definitely going to be nominated this season, and is the best challenger for Sanada. While he may not be a frontrunner, Cosmo Jarvis has also stood out on Shogun and will likely get a nomination as well.
It was a tremendous snub last year for Dominic West not to be nominated for The Crown, not just for the performance itself but because The Crown always leads to nominations and wins to most of the performers. Therefore, this year there is no doubt that West will be nominated.
Mr. and Mrs. Smith is very likely to receive several nominations and Donald Glover frequently gets nominated for his performances and so it is very likely that he gets nominated here. Sugar was definitely a series that caught people's eyes, but also turned people off with its ridiculousness. Regardless of how people have felt, however, everyone has loved Colin Farrell on this series, where he is likely to be nominated.
While the above six prospective nominations are the most likely, Fallout and The Curse are two huge breakouts in the drama category that are likely to be nominated for several Emmys. They also contain two lead performances that are celebrated from Walton Goggins and Nathan Fielder, respectively. Goggins is heavily made up in his role, but he has an interesting dynamic where he can be an upset nomination. Fielder is not often taken seriously as a performer, which hinders his potential for a nomination here, but it is still very likely.
The category of Best Actress in a Drama Series does hinge on if The Morning Show will be taken seriously or not, which it probably will, thanks to Jennifer Anniston and Reese Witherspoon being previous nominees. The Gilded Age is the other genuinely strange show that will be a huge awards heavy-hitter; Carrie Coon is beloved in the industry and does give a wonderful performance in the series, so she is likely to be nominated.
It should be no surprise that the frontrunner in this category that is from Shogun with Anna Sawai giving the best performance of the year and definitely the one that grabs the most attention. Like West, it was quite surprising that Imelda Staunton was not nominated for her first season of The Crown for the same reasons as dictated before. Meanwhile, Emma Stone is having a great year for awards after winning her second Oscar and having a sensationally dark performance in The Curse, which will be deservedly receiving a nomination.
As already dictated in this article, Mr. and Mrs. Smith is likely to be an Emmy heavy hitter and therefore Maya Erskine could be nominated, another past nominee for her hit show Pen15, but never for her performances which it would be great if she could be celebrated for it.
Even those that have disliked The Morning Show have all agreed that Billy Crudup and his performance is the best part. This is the only category where this show has won an Emmy and so while the show had lost a lot of favor, Crudup is probably the leading contender in the category of Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series. While this season was mocked, Jon Hamm was also a standout performance on The Morning Show and will probably get a nomination, as well. Mark Duplass has previously been nominated for his performance in this series and therefore is likely to also repeat with another nomination.
This is one of the few categories where Shogun is not likely in the lead, but Tadanobu Asano will definitely be getting nominated for his performance. If momentum swings for Shogun, there is potential for an upset win, but the other chance for an upset is Jonathan Pryce for The Crown. Like a majority of the cast of the show, Pryce was not nominated for the first season, but will definitely be nominated this year. It would be crazy if The Crown doesn’t get something and, with this being a relatively open category, it is likely Pryce could surge. The other actor in The Crown that gives a fascinating performance is Khalid Abdalla, who has been getting enough buzz that may take him to a nomination.
The Gilded Age is likely to over-perform at this year’s Emmys. With that, Nathan Lane could get a nomination purely on momentum and his legendary status even though his performance is as ridiculous as the show and yet his character is so damn lovable. Another series that could possibly over-perform at the Emmys is Slow Horses with Jack Lowden potentially catching a stray nomination in this category.
There are few long shots that do not seem likely, but could receive a surprise nomination. If Loki does as well as some people think it might, then there is a slight chance that Ke Huy Quan could get a nomination, but this feels unlikely. Takehiro Hira is not the most standout performance in Shogun, but if that series does as well as it is slated to do, then he could potentially grab a nomination. Finally, The Curse will be getting a great deal of nominations and Benny Safdie seems like he could snag a nomination.
The most successful actor in this two-season iteration of The Crown was Elizabeth Debecki who received a nomination last year and lost to The White Lotus’s Jennifer Coolidge. This will be her year to win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series. Lesley Manville is just another performance on The Crown that has yet to be recognized, but will receive buzz this year.
If The Gilded Age is slated to get as many nominations as it is looking to receive, then Cynthia Nixon and Christine Baranski have to also be considered likely nominations; while the series is bonkers, it would be great to see both of them get recognized. Then there is The Morning Show, which has a tremendously large cast of both newcomers and veterans to awards season. This year will most likely see Greta Lee and Holland Taylor both nominated, covering both ends of that spectrum.
It’s been decried several times that Slow Horses is long overdue to be praised by the Emmys and this feels like the season that some recognition could be coming.
This category is going to be the most difficult for Shogun and, while it may see some deserved nominations for Moeka Hoshi and Fumi Nikaido, neither of them are locks. Unfortunately they’re not definite to win, but once again if Shogun launches with so much maintained goodwill, there is a slim chance of the upset.
There is less than a month until the Emmy Nominations are announced and we will see how close these prospective nominations will come to being honored.