Happy Fall Film Festival Hangover! - Awards Outlook
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
While there are plenty of other film festivals that will be taking place over the next few months, the big ones that often shape various Oscar races, either through the accolades or from the reactions from both audiences and critics alike, have cemented the films to watch. The following is not a precise exercise, but more an interpretation of the ebb and flow of several narratives during this year’s awards season.
Usually the audience award winner at the Toronto International Film Festival and the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival lead to some modicum of Oscar success, but this year those two films were The Life of Chuck and The Room Next Door respectively and neither have a high amount of buzz for the Oscars at this time. The Life of Chuck was not one of the standouts and, as this article is being written, it does not have a current distributor. The film will likely end up on Prime Video as director Mike Flanagan has a partnership with Amazon’s streaming service. Meanwhile, The Room Next Door did not get panned, but also received a fairly muted reaction and is considered to not be director Pedro Almodovar’s best. However, winning the Golden Lion in Venice seems like just a way to honor the career of Almodovar more than the film.
The sequel to the Venice and Oscar hit, Joker: Folie à Deux, received some pretty tough reactions from critics and audience members alike where even the fans of the first movie seemed to be let down by this one. The Oscar hopes of this film may end up being dashed with the exception of possibly Lady Gaga, but she reportedly doesn’t have a great amount of screentime and therefore probably does not stand out for a potential nomination.
Emilia Pérez seemed like it was going to be far too radical and weird for typical audiences, but the more eyes that have seen it, the more it has been loved and has become the one of the awards frontrunners for Netflix.
Saturday Night received some great reactions from audiences at several festivals and yet, because it is a film directed by Jason Reitman, the critics (by law) have to hate it. However, the reaction from the critics has essentially been mixed positive, but with audiences loving the film this will easily be the type of film that hits the heights of Oscar while continuing to divide the critics. Another film about television that definitely started to get a great deal of momentum through the festival circuit is September 5 and, this is a bit of a long shot, but the Oscars do love a journalism movie and this one is pleasing to both critics and audiences alike.
Everyone seemed to like Conclave, not love Conclave, and there was an agreement that it was a fun enough watch that it seems like it will be a “middle of the road” Best Picture nomination. This cast seems like it would be rife with Oscar buzz, but the supporting characters reportedly don't stand out enough. Ralph Fiennes has the best chance of a nomination with the others still a possibility but not as likely.
While Maria got decently positive reviews, it still isn’t receiving some of the most glowing reactions. The one bit of praise that everyone can agree on is the performance of Angelina Jolie being magnificent; she will be able to ride on that high for what seems like a very probable nomination.
The film that was barely talked about before the festivals, but through some of the most glowing reactions now might be at the top of everyone’s list, is The Brutalist. This is a three and a half hour period piece (aka Oscar catnip) and it was also recently purchased by A24. This could be the studio’s primary focus and could lead to at least several nominations including performance nominations for Adrien Brody and Guy Pearce, at the least.
Another film purchased by A24 which is getting more divisive reactions is Luca Guadagnino’s second film of the year, Queer. However, while critics and audiences are divided about the film, everyone is agreeing that Daniel Craig’s performance is worthy of a nomination, which is getting more and more likely.
The Piano Lesson is another film from a long line of August Wilson plays which frequently lead to several performance nominations, but not many nominations for the actual film. The film is getting some great reactions that could lead to a potential Best Picture nomination, especially in a field of ten. The performances are also being considered, especially John David Washington and Danielle Deadwyler, the latter of which was criminally snubbed a few years back for Till. Samuel L Jackson was one of the larger front runners for a performance award, but the festivals showed that his performance is a bit more muted, which often does not lead to Oscar success.
Anora premiered back at the Cannes Film Festival to a great deal of acclaim and success and has also been traveling through the most recent batch of festivals. The reactions from both critics and audiences alike has been nothing but praise and so at this point, this film is the front runner for several awards including Picture, Screenplay, Director, and Actress. None of these races are sewn up, but they all definitely have their leaders right now.
Nicole Kidman is frequently in the awards conversation and with her latest film, Baby Girl, she once again being considered with what is being called a dazzling performance. It could likely lead to at least a nomination in what is a fairly stacked Best Lead Actress category.
Heretic was getting some very decent reactions for a genre film at film festivals and probably won’t lead to much Oscar success, but Hugh Grant is definitely on the Oscar buzz radar for his supporting performance; it’s a very overt performance that could catch the eye of the Academy.
There were plenty of other films that were being talked about throughout the festivals, but the films above seem to be where the main narratives shifted. There are also films that are going to be widely released after the festivals which could also be Oscar heavy hitters, suh Gladiator II and A Complete Unknown. With the exception of trailers, these are complete mysteries.