Early Predictions for the Best Picture Race at the Oscars

It was at this time last year that “Barbenheimer” stormed into theaters, thus beginning to shape the Oscar race. There is no major movie event like that this year, but there are still some likely contenders for Best Picture, though without any clear front runner. 

At this point, Sing Sing is generating the most buzz as a film that rocked the South by Southwest Film Festival last year, building momentum ever since with strong performances. This feels like the “little movie that could type of narrative”. It’s also a film from A24, which has been proven to be able to run several successful Oscar campaigns. 

Dune: Part Two is the only film that has been given a wide release thus far that has a great likelihood of grabbing a Best Picture nomination, much like its predecessor. However, as a sequel and with a third rumored to be coming, there is a chance that this could go much less recognized than the first film.

onclave released an amazing trailer recently, catapulting this film into the Best Picture conversation, which makes sense for a film made by Edward Berger (who helped bring his last film All Quiet on the Western Front into Best Picture nominations during its respective year. The filmmaker came very close to getting a Best Director nomination and the film won several technical awards, plus the Best International Feature Oscar. 

For several years in a row, the Palme d’Or winner at Cannes has also been part of the Best Picture nominations and, this year, Anora may also be there with director Sean Baker coming close to Oscar nominations in the past, but never sealing the deal.

Another film battle-tested by the Cannes film festival was Emilia Perez that came out with several awards for its cast and, while Netflix still may pick up another film for its awards play, this will most likely be the film they put all their chips on. Though the film is wildly unconventional, it is still highly likely to grab at least some Oscar nominations, including one for Best Picture. 

In addition to Dune: Part Two, there are two other sequels that are likely to be considered for Best Picture nominations, including Joker: Folìe a Deux and Gladiator II, both of which sequels to films that were nominated for Best Picture with the latter actually winning. It’s difficult to know if both of these films will actually measure up to their predecessors, but they deserve to be considered based on past success. It will be crazy to have three sequels in one slate of Best Picture nominations, but it’s definitely possible. 

Blitz is one of the biggest question marks of the season so far. It has had trouble finding a studio except for AppleTV+ and is going to premiere at the London Film Festival, which is not a festival for awards heavy-hitters. However, this is directed by Steve McQueen, who has experience directing a film to a Best Picture Oscar in the past with 12 Years a Slave. Blitz also has a cast that is no stranger to awards, especially Saorise Ronan, who is getting a great deal of buzz for her role. 

Nickel Boys is another film that many don’t know much about, but it being in front of the New York Film Festival has helped put it on the map, not to mention that the director is RaMell Ross, who previously directed the documentary Hale County This Morning, This Evening, who has the chops to make something emotionally effective. With a cast of rising stars and established veterans that could be the perfect blend of talent, look for it to make a run. 

A Real Pain has already been seen by many at the Sundance Film Festival and received a great deal of praise, with this film possibly being this year’s Past Lives, that iis the quiet film with a long enough campaign that makes it to Oscar season. 

Movies based on August Wilson plays have often been in the Oscar conversation, such as Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Fences, but never have they broken into the Best Picture race. While definitely coming close, it will be interesting to see if this year’s The Piano Lesson will be the first to reach such an accolade. 

There is often at least one international film that ends up in the Best Picture race and this year’s the likeliest candidate is another Cannes favorite, The Seed of the Sacred Fig. The film has the potential to have a solid narrative for director Mohammad Rasoulof, who has sacrificed a great deal for this movie.

Wicked is poised to be a tremendous box office hit and while the Box Office does not necessarily mean Oscar nominations, there are moments where those two crossover. It all depends on the quality of the film.

Director Mike Leigh is back with the film Hard Truths, who should always be taken seriously in the Oscar race, especially with him reuniting with Marianne Jean-Baptiste where the two had tremendous Oscar success through Secrets and Lies almost thirty years ago. 

Director Marielle Heller is also back with the film Nightbitch where Amy Adams is back on the Oscar buzz circuit. The performers in Heller’s films have done very well when it comes to Oscar nominations with her films, but the films themselves never quite make it into the Best Picture conversation. It will be interesting to see if voters will have the guts to select a film with this title, but as the Academy gets younger, it gets more open-minded. 

Musical biopics used to be the bread and butter of the Academy but have recently begun to fall out of favor. However, James Mangold has managed to bring popular films into the Oscar conversation in the past and his new Bob Dylan biopic, A Complete Unknown, could end up in the Best Picture conversation, especially with Timothee Chalamet at the center drawing a great deal of eyes on the film. 

With predictions being made this early, it is likely that something will swoop in out of nowhere and take the prize, but these seem to be the films that are making the most noise at this time.

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