Box Office Report: ‘The Little Mermaid’ Swims To #1

Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.

Updated 3-Day & 4-Day Weekend Studio Estimates:

The Little Mermaid (Disney) -- $95.400 M 3-Day / $117.500 M 4-Day
Fast X (Universal) -- $23.010 M 3-Day / $28.610 M 4-Day
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Disney) -- $20.379 M 3-Day / $26.100 M 4-Day
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal) -- $6.300 M 3-Day / $8.360 M 4-Day
The Machine (Sony / Legendary) -- $5.000 M 3-Day / $6.000 M 4-Day
About My Father (Lionsgate) -- $4.300 M 3-Day / $5.350 M 4-Day
Evil Dead Rise (Warner Bros.) -- $1.050 M 3-Day / $1.300 M 4-Day
Book Club: The Next Chapter (Focus) -- $870 K 3-Day / $1.130 M 4-Day
John Wick: Chapter 4 (Lionsgate) -- $501 K 3-Day / $631 K 4-Day
Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret (Lionsgate) -- $371 K 3-Day / $486 K 4-Day

4-Day Weekend Box Office Report: May 26th - May 29th, 2023

Disney's The Little Mermaid led the way over the Memorial Day weekend holiday frame with respective estimated three-day and four-day debuts of $95.50 million and $117.50 million. The Rob Marshall directed live-action reimagining of Disney's classic 1989 animated film opened just under the lower end of pre-release expectations, but could potentially still inch up towards the lower end of consensus four-day expectations by the time actuals are released on Tuesday. The Little Mermaid registered the fifth largest four-day Memorial Day weekend debut of all-time. In addition, the four-day start of The Little Mermaid was just ahead of the $116.81 million four-day Memorial Day weekend start of the live-action reimagining of Aladdin back in 2019. It was extremely important for The Little Mermaid to get off to a good domestic start this weekend, given the film's expensive price-tag and that The Little Mermaid is performing weaker internationally than domestically (more on that in a bit). The Little Mermaid stars Halle Bailey, Jonah Hauer-King, Melissa McCarthy and Javier Bardem.

The Little Mermaid was off to a promising start on Friday with $38.00 million (including an estimated $10.3 million from Thursday preview shows that began at 3PM and select early access shows on Wednesday). The film took in $30.00 million on Saturday, which was down a significant 21.1 percent from Friday. Saturday's hold was concerning for a family film, though The Little Mermaid skewing heavily towards female moviegoers also factored into the daily hold on Saturday. The Little Mermaid is estimated to decline 8.3 percent on Sunday to take in $27.50 million and estimated to decrease 20.0 percent on Monday to take in $22.00 million. While The Little Mermaid had a very similar four-day holiday start to Aladdin (2019), at the same time The Little Mermaid displayed more initial front-loading over opening weekend than Aladdin did. With that in mind, going forward it will likely be difficult for The Little Mermaid to match the holding power of Aladdin. As mentioned, The Little Mermaid skewed heavily towards female moviegoers (68 percent). The film's audience also skewed 32 percent male, 50 percent under 25 and 50 percent over 25. Family audiences made up an estimated 42 percent of the film's overall audience this weekend. On the average, critical reviews for The Little Mermaid have been somewhat mixed, but more so positive than negative. The film looks to be going over better with audiences, as The Little Mermaid received a strong A rating on CinemaScore and currently boasts a 95 percent Verified Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes.

While The Little Mermaid was off to a healthy domestic start this weekend, the film's international start was underwhelming, though that had been widely expected heading into the weekend. The Little Mermaid grossed an estimated $68.3 million internationally from 51 international markets through Sunday. That places the film's global launch through Sunday at $163.8 million. Estimated international debuts for The Little Mermaid by international market this weekend included $8.5 million in Mexico, $6.3 million in the United Kingdom, $4.7 million in Italy, $4.0 million in Australia, $4.0 million in Brazil, $3.6 million in France, $3.6 million in Spain, $2.8 million in South Korea, $2.5 million in Argentina, a lackluster $2.5 million in China and $2.4 million in Germany. Globally, The Little Mermaid has grossed an estimated $8.5 million from IMAX screens through Monday, with an estimated $7.0 million of that total coming from domestic IMAX screens.

Universal's Fast X placed in second this weekend with respective estimated three-day and four-day grosses of $23.02 million and $28.69 million. Over the three-day frame Fast X declined a sharp 65.7 percent, while the film's four-day performance represented a 57.2 percent decrease from last weekend's three-day gross. Back in July of 2021, F9 declined 67.2 percent to take in a nearly identical $23.01 million in its second weekend, which fell over Independence Day weekend (F9 had a second weekend four-day holiday gross of $29.10 million). Through Monday, Fast X has grossed an estimated $113.63 million through eleven days of domestic release. That is 7.0 percent behind the $122.21 million eleven-day gross of F9. It should be noted that Fast X had to deal with much more sizable new competition this weekend in The Little Mermaid, than F9 had to deal with in its second weekend (The Boss Baby: Family Business & The Forever Purge).

Fast X remained far stronger internationally this weekend with an estimated $87.3 million from 84 international markets. That brings the film's international total to $399.3 million and the film's global haul through Sunday past the $500 million mark to $507.3 million. Estimated totals for Fast X by international market through Sunday include $110.1 million in China, $28.4 million in Mexico, $17.2 million in Brazil, $14.7 million in Japan, $13.7 million in India, $13.0 million in France, $12.9 million in the United Kingdom, $12.5 million in Indonesia, $11.6 million in Germany, $10.9 million in South Korea, $10.5 million in Italy, $9.5 million in Spain and $9.4 million in Argentina. Fast X, which split IMAX screens with The Little Mermaid this weekend, took in an estimated $6.5 million from global IMAX screens over the four-day frame. Through Monday, Fast X has grossed an estimated $32.0 million from global IMAX screens; $23.8 million internationally (including $12.0 million from China) and $8.2 million domestically.

Disney and Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 took third place with respective estimated three-day and four-day weekend grosses of $19.95 million and $25.30 million. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 held up very nicely this weekend, as the film declined 38.4 percent over the three-day frame and the film's four-day take represented a decrease of just 21.9 percent from last weekend's three-day performance. Back in 2017, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 declined 39.7 percent over the three-day Memorial Day weekend frame to take in $20.91 million (the film's four-day holiday weekend gross was $27.19 million). Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will pass the $300 million domestic mark on Monday, as the film's 25-day estimated domestic total through Monday stands at $304.78 million. That is a reasonable 10.5 percent behind the $340.51 million 25-day haul of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. This coming weekend Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will face new direct competition from Sony's highly anticipated Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

This weekend also saw Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 surpass the $700 million global mark. The film grossed an estimated $25.1 million internationally this weekend from 52 international markets. Through Sunday, respective totals for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 stand at $431.6 million internationally and at $731.0 million globally. Estimated totals for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 by international market through Sunday include $79.8 million in China, $39.8 million in the United Kingdom, $33.7 million in Mexico, $30.2 million in South Korea, $26.6 million in France, $20.0 million in Germany, $18.3 million in Australia, $17.2 million in Brazil, $11.4 million in Italy, $10.8 million in Spain, $9.2 million in Indonesia and $9.0 million in Japan.

Universal, Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Bros. Movie placed in fourth with respective estimated three-day and four-day takes of $6.27 million and $8.33 million. The film's three-day gross was down 34.7 percent from last weekend, while the film's four-day gross was down a slim 13.2 percent from last weekend's three-day take. Through Monday, the 55-day domestic total for The Super Mario Bros. Movie stands at $560.94 million. Internationally, The Super Mario Bros. Movie grossed an estimated $13.1 million this weekend from 81 international markets. That brings the film's international total to $717.8 million and the film's global haul through Sunday to a massive $1.277 billion. This weekend saw The Super Mario Bros. Movie gross an estimated $4.2 million in Japan (where the film has grossed $73.7 million to date) and debut with an estimated $2.4 million in Poland (including previews).

Lower profile new releases occupied places fifth through eighth this weekend.
Sony and Legendary's The Machine led the bunch with respective estimated three-day and four-day fifth place starts of $4.90 million and $5.82 million. The Peter Atencio directed action comedy stars Bert Kreischer and Mark Hamill. While The Machine ultimately came in on the high end of expectations (after looking like it might exceed expectations after Friday's promising $2.22 million opening day performance), The Machine was able to outpace fellow new release About My Father this weekend, a film which had been widely expected to finish slightly ahead of The Machine in this weekend's box office rankings. The Machine performed especially well on Thursday night with an estimated $0.85 million in preview grosses, which were aided by a live pre-show event that featured Kreischer.
Lionsgate's About My Father started out in sixth place with respective estimated three-day and four-day grosses of $4.25 million and $5.25 million. That was in line with the modest pre-release expectations for the comedy, which was directed by Laura Terruso and stars Sebastian Maniscalco and Robert De Niro. Critical reviews for About My Father have been lackluster, but the film looks to be going over better with audiences after receiving a solid B+ rating on CinemaScore.

Open Road and Briarcliff's Kandahar took seventh place with respective estimated three-day and four-day grosses of $2.41 million and $3.00 million. The Ric Roman Waugh directed action thriller starring Gerard Butler opened in line with the very modest expectations for the film. Critical reviews for Kandahar have been mixed, but like About My Father, Kandahar looks to be going over better with audiences than with critics after also receiving a solid B+ rating on CinemaScore.
In semi-wide release, A24's You Hurt My Feelings started out in eighth with respective estimated three-day and four-day grosses of $1.39 million and $1.77 million. Given that You Hurt My Feelings was a smaller release playing in a modest 912 locations this weekend, the film's start was quite respectable. The comedy was directed by Nicole Holofcener and stars Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Tobias Menzies. You Hurt My Feelings has received very strong acclaim from critics.

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