Box Office Predictions: ‘The Flash’ Set To Speed To The Top
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: June 16th - June 18th, 2023
Warner Bros.'s The Flash is set to lead the box office upon arriving in theatres this weekend. The latest installment of the DC Extended Universe (DCEU) was directed by Andy Muschietti and stars Ezra Miller, Sasha Calle, Michael Shannon and Michael Keaton (returning as Batman). The Flash is playing in 4,234 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. While on paper The Flash should have a lot going for it when it comes to generating demand at the box office, at the same time the film is also dealing with a very crowded marketplace this weekend (including fairly direct competition from Sony's Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse), the fact that The Flash isn't an upper-tier comic book character in terms of popularity when it comes to more mainstream audiences and the fact that audiences appear to have lost at least some interest in the DCEU as it continues to inch closer to transitioning into the upcoming DCU (see the performance of Shazam! Fury of the Gods earlier this year). With that in mind, The Flash likely won't be one of this summer's top domestic films, but could be looking at an opening weekend performance in the same neighborhood as the $67.00 million start of Black Adam this past October. On the average, critical reviews for The Flash have been fairly mixed, but more so positive than negative. The Flash should get a bit of a boost on Sunday from the Father's Day holiday. Beyond this weekend, there is still hope that the film will hold up well for a comic book based film, especially if Keaton helps bring in older Batman fans. As for this weekend, BoxOfficeReport is predicting a debut of $67.5 million for The Flash. With the Juneteenth holiday on Monday, The Flash could be looking at a four-day start of $76.0 million.
Also arriving in theatres this weekend is Disney and Pixar's Elemental. The computer animated film was directed by Peter Sohn and features the vocal talent of Leah Lewis and Mamoudou Athie. Elemental is playing in 4,035 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. Critical reviews for Elemental have been good, but at the same time aren't as strong as usual when it comes to Pixar's lofty critical standards. As an animated romantic comedy, Elemental may not play quite as strong as usual for a Pixar film with family audiences, especially with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and fellow Disney release The Little Mermaid both still having a significant presence in the marketplace. Back in March of 2020, just before the temporary closing of domestic theatres, Disney and Pixar's Onward debuted with $39.12 million. Since then, with three films debuting on Disney+ and last year's Lightyear being a box office disappointment, Pixar has yet to regain its footing at the box office and that appears likely to continue with Elemental. Elemental could debut in second place with $34.5 million over the three-day frame this weekend. For the four-day holiday frame, Elemental could start out with $40.0 million.
Sony's Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is coming off a strong second weekend performance in which the critically acclaimed computer animated sequel declined 54.0 percent to gross $55.51 million. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse has continued to stabilize during the midweek this week and on Wednesday the film grossed $6.45 million, which was a 41.9 percent decline from the previous Wednesday (when the film was still playing on IMAX screens). The added presence of The Flash and Elemental in the marketplace will have an impact on Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (and holdovers in general) this weekend. At the same time, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse looks to have enough momentum at the moment to have a good hold this weekend, especially since the film should get a significant Father's Day boost on Sunday. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse could decline a very respectable 44.2 percent over the three-day weekend to gross $31.0 million. And with the film also potentially being a strong performer on Juneteenth Monday, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse could gross $38.0 million over the four-day frame.
Paramount's Transformers: Rise of the Beasts outpaced expectations last weekend with a first place debut of $61.05 million. However, the film has displayed some initial front-loading during the midweek this week and in general, Transformers films tend to experience sharp second weekend declines. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts will also take a hit this weekend from losing IMAX screens to The Flash. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts does look to be going over well with audiences after receiving a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore and like some of this weekend's other films, is likely to have a nice hold on Sunday thanks to Father's Day. Look for Transformers: Rise of the Beasts to decline 64.8 percent over the three-day weekend to place in fourth with $21.5 million. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts could take in $25.0 million for the four-day holiday frame.
After declining 44.1 percent last weekend to take third with $23.15 million, Disney's The Little Mermaid has continued to further stabilize during the midweek this week (the film's Wednesday performance was down only 29.4 percent from the previous Wednesday). However, some of that momentum will be lost this weekend by The Little Mermaid playing in 840 fewer locations than it has over the past three weeks. In addition to the location count loss, fellow Disney release Elemental should provide new direct competition for The Little Mermaid this weekend. With that said, The Little Mermaid should still be able to hold up fairly well this weekend. A decline of 38.2 percent would transfer into a fifth place three-day take of $14.3 million for The Little Mermaid. A potentially strong performance on Juneteenth Monday could give The Little Mermaid $17.5 million over the four-day frame.
This weekend also sees the release of Lionsgate's The Blackening. The R-rated horror comedy was directed by Tim Story and features an ensemble cast that includes Grace Byers, Jermaine Fowler, Melvin Gregg, X Mayo, Dewayne Perkins, Antoinette Robertson and Sinqua Walls. Likely due in part to the amount of competition in the current marketplace, The Blackening is opening in 1,775 locations this weekend. Thursday previews for The Blackening start at 6PM and the film also had select early access shows on Wednesday. Critical reviews for The Blackening have been good and the film will look to get a boost from opening over Juneteenth weekend. For the three-day frame, The Blackening could start out in sixth place with $8.0 million (for a very respectable per-location average of $4,507) and with a likely strong performance on Juneteenth Monday, The Blackening could gross $9.7 million over its first four days of release.
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