Box Office Predictions: ‘The Equalizer 3’ Looks To Top The Labor Day Weekend
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
4-Day Labor Day Weekend Box Office Predictions: September 1st, 2023 to September 4th, 2023
Sony's The Equalizer 3 appears set to comfortably lead the Labor Day holiday frame upon arriving in theatres this weekend. The third installment of the action thriller series sees the return of star Denzel Washington and director Antoine Fuqua. The Equalizer 3 is opening in 3,965 locations this weekend (which represents a significant increase over the opening weekend location counts of each of the previous two Equalizer films), will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. On the average, critical reviews for The Equalizer 3 have been good and furthermore The Equalizer 3 has been the best reviewed of the three Equalizer films. The previous two Equalizer films had very similar box office runs, as The Equalizer debuted with $34.14 million in September of 2014 and went on to gross $101.53 million domestically, while The Equalizer 2 opened with $36.01 million in July of 2018 and went on to gross $102.08 million domestically. It appears that there is a similar amount of opening weekend interest for The Equalizer 3, though opening over a four-day weekend could lead to the three-day start for The Equalizer 3 being just below those of the film's two predecessors. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Equalizer 3 will open with a healthy $40.0 million over the four-day Labor weekend holiday frame, with $33.0 million of that figure coming from the three-day weekend frame. That would represent the second largest Labor Day weekend opening ever; behind only 2021's Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.
Warner Bros.'s Barbie placed in a close second last weekend with $15.10 million. Barbie declined just 28.2 percent last weekend, thanks in part to National Cinema Day taking place last Sunday. Labor Day weekend is historically a strong frame for summer blockbusters still in theatres, though percentage holds in general likely won't be as strong as usual this year, due in part to last Sunday's grosses being inflated for most films due to the mentioned National Cinema Day and in part to The Equalizer 3 entering the marketplace this weekend. Barbie will no doubt take second place this weekend, which would represent the third consecutive second place performance for the film (on the heels of four consecutive first place performances). Over the three-day frame, Barbie could hold up a bit better this weekend than it did last weekend, as a 23.9 percent decrease would transfer into $11.5 million for Barbie this weekend. For the four-day holiday frame, Barbie could be in store for $14.5 million, which would represent a slim decline of 4.0 percent from last weekend's three-day frame. Barbie will zoom past the $600 million domestic mark this weekend, as the film continues to pad its new status as the highest grossing release of 2023 domestically.
Meanwhile, it could prove to be a very close three-way race for third place this weekend between Universal's Oppenheimer, Sony's Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story and Warner Bros.'s Blue Beetle. It wouldn't be terribly surprising if the order of finish of the three films this weekend isn't the same for the three-day and four-day frames. Last weekend Gran Turismo debuted in first with $17.41 million, Blue Beetle declined 51.4 percent to place in third with $12.16 million and Universal's Oppenheimer decreased 23.4 percent to follow in fourth with $8.22 million. This weekend Oppenheimer should easily have the best hold of the three films, due in part to both Gran Turismo and especially Blue Beetle having experienced significantly stronger National Cinema Day boosts than Oppenheimer last Sunday. Gran Turismo will also have to deal with last weekend's opening being inflated by the film's pre-Thursday early access grosses and with losing a fairly high amount of its average showtimes per location from last weekend. Oppenheimer could decrease only 18.5 percent from last weekend to take in $6.7 million over the three-day frame (and increase 2.2 percent to gross $8.4 million over the four-day frame), Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story could decline a sharp 62.1 percent to gross $6.6 million over the three-day frame (and decline 52.3 percent to take in $8.3 million over the four-day frame) and Blue Beetle could slow 46.5 percent over the three-day frame to gross $6.5 million (and decrease 32.6 percent to register $8.2 million over the four-day frame).
After last weekend's strong platform launch, MGM and Orion's Bottoms will expand to semi-wide release this weekend. The Emma Seligman directed R-rated teen comedy grossed $461,052 last weekend from 10 locations in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Austin, for a per-location average of $46,105. Bottoms is expanding to 715 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows at new locations beginning at 4PM. Critical reviews for Bottoms have been especially strong and have no doubt helped strengthen the film's platform performance this week. While it won't be expanding quite as wide in comparison this weekend, it appears that Bottoms will still have a good chance of outpacing the second weekend expansion of last year's Bodies Bodies Bodies, which grossed $3.13 million in its second weekend (from 1,290 locations). Bottoms could be in store for respective three-day and four-day grosses of $4.1 million and $4.9 million this weekend. That would place Bottoms in seventh place among all films this weekend (behind Paramount's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, which could be in store for respective three-day and four-day grosses of $5.4 million and $7.0 million).
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