Box Office Predictions: LFG! ‘Deadpool And Wolverine’ Set To Retake Number One
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: August 23rd, 2024 - August 25th, 2024
With not much expected from this weekend's new wide releases, Deadpool & Wolverine, Alien: Romulus and It Ends With Us are set to take the top three spots at the box office this weekend.
After spending the previous three weekends at the top of the domestic box office, last weekend saw Disney's Deadpool & Wolverine place in second with $30.00 million. That represented a 44.2 percent decline, which was quite respectable given that the blockbuster sequel lost the remainder of its IMAX screens and showtimes to Alien: Romulus. With the opening weekend of Alien: Romulus now out of the way, Deadpool & Wolverine is likely to hold up significantly better this weekend than it did last weekend. In general, the last few weeks of the summer moviegoing season also tend to be good for event films still in theatres, as audiences catch up with what they may have missed (or go back for an additional viewing). A decline of just 31.7 percent would transfer into a fifth weekend take of $20.5 million for Deadpool & Wolverine, which would likely be good enough for the film to move back into first place this weekend.
Disney and 20th Century's Alien: Romulus is coming off of a solid first place debut of $42.00 million. While Alien: Romulus has displayed significant initial front-loading thus far, the film has gone over well with critics and audiences alike (Alien: Romulus received a B+ rating on CinemaScore). Alien: Romulus will also get a boost this weekend from holding onto most of its IMAX showtimes (The Crow will be getting a limited amount of IMAX showtimes this weekend). 2017's Alien: Covenant declined a very sharp 70.6 percent in its second weekend (to gross $10.61 million), while 2012's Prometheus decreased 59.4 percent in its second weekend (to gross $20.71 million). With all factors considered, it feels like Alien: Romulus should have a second weekend hold much more along the lines of Prometheus than that of Alien: Covenant. Look for Alien: Romulus to decline 57.1 percent this weekend to place in second with $18.0 million.
Sony's It Ends With Us placed in third last weekend with $23.81 million, which represented a second weekend decline of 52.4 percent. The second weekend hold for It Ends With Us was very solid for an adaptation of a novel with a large built-in fanbase. It Ends With Us also looks to be holding onto a higher percentage of its average showtimes per location this weekend than the film did last weekend, which should lead to further stabilization this weekend. On Monday, It Ends With Us passed the $100 million domestic mark and on Wednesday the film passed the $200 million global mark. As for this weekend, It Ends With Us could decline a solid 34.9 percent to hold steady in third place with $15.5 million.
The weekend's three new wide releases are Amazon MGM Studios' Blink Twice, Sony's The Forge and Lionsgate's The Crow. As mentioned, none of the three films are expected to make a major impact at the box office this weekend.
Blink Twice will be receiving the widest release of the bunch. The Zoë Kravitz directed thriller starring Naomi Ackie and Channing Tatum is opening in 3,067 locations and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. On the average, critical reviews for the film have been good. With the wider launch and at least some fans of Tatum likely to show up, Blink Twice will probably be this weekend's top new opener. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Blink Twice will debut with $7.0 million this weekend (which would place the film in a close race for fourth place with Universal's Twisters).
The Forge is the latest faith-based drama from the Kendrick Brothers and represents a spin-off to the 2015 surprise hit War Room. The Forge was directed by Alex Kendrick and stars Karen Abercrombie, Cameron Arnett, Aspen Kennedy and Priscilla Shirer. The Forge is playing in 1,818 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. While the Kendrick Brothers have been very consistent at the box office over the years; five years having passed since Alex Kendrick's last film as a director (2019's Overcomer) could lead to there being less interest in The Forge. With that said The Forge will likely be the most back-loaded of this weekend's three new wide releases beyond this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Forge will start out with $6.4 million this weekend.
The Crow is opening in 2,752 locations, is receiving a limited amount of IMAX showtimes and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. The reboot of the comic book based film series was directed by Rupert Sanders and stars Bill Skarsgård, FKA Twigs and Danny Huston. It feels like there has never been much buzz around the new version of The Crow, as there just doesn't appear to be much demand with audiences for another version of the 1994 film. On top of that, critical reviews for the new version of The Crow have been largely negative thus far. The Crow could open with $5.4 million this weekend, which would likely place the film in eighth place for the frame (behind the second weekend performance of Fathom Events and LAIKA's 15th Anniversary re-issue of Coraline).
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