Box Office Predictions: ‘Joker: Folie à Deux’ Set To Ride A Ride Of Negativity To A Muted #1
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: October 4th, 2024 - October 6th, 2024
Warner Bros.'s Joker: Folie à Deux is set to lead the way at the domestic box office this weekend. However, the follow-up to 2019's Joker isn't expected to come anywhere close to the $96.20 million break-out debut of Joker. Joker: Folie à Deux sees the return of Joker director Todd Phillips and star Joaquin Phoenix, and also features Lady Gaga as Harleen Quinn this time around. Joker: Folie à Deux is playing in 4,102 locations this weekend, is playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM (the film also had early access shows this past Monday). With Joker: Folie à Deux coming across as at least somewhat of a departure from Joker, due in part to having musical elements this time around, there doesn't appear to be as much mainstream anticipation for the film. On top of that, critical reviews for Joker: Folie à Deux have been negative on the average, which isn't going to help, especially when it comes to the portion of the potential audience that was already on the fence about the film. While merging the Joker fanbase with Lady Gaga's fanbase initially felt like a can't miss idea, at the end of the day it appears that Joker: Folie à Deux won't equal the sum of its parts at the box office. And perhaps more than anything, the performance of the original Joker may have been one of those catching lightning in a bottle box office performances that isn't easy to duplicate. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Joker: Folie à Deux will debut with $51.0 million this weekend. It should be noted that Joker: Folie à Deux is widely expected to perform stronger internationally than it likely will domestically.
Universal and DreamWorks Animation's The Wild Robot is coming off of a promising first place start last weekend which saw the film debut on the high end of expectations with $35.79 million. The computer animated film has gone over very well with critics and audiences alike (The Wild Robot received a strong A rating on CinemaScore). As a family film, The Wild Robot isn't likely to be affected much by the addition of the R-rated Joker: Folie à Deux in the marketplace. The Wild Robot will lose its IMAX screens to Joker: Folie à Deux this weekend, though The Wild Robot was already splitting IMAX screens with Megalopolis this past week, so that shouldn't make a huge impact either this weekend. The Wild Robot could decline a very solid 41.3 percent this weekend to place in second with $21.0 million. And given the overall lack of major new family fare entering the marketplace over the next month and a half, The Wild Robot is highly likely to further stabilize after this weekend as well.
After stabilizing last weekend to decline a solid 37.5 percent for a second place take of $16.22 million, Warner Bros.'s Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will have a great chance of holding up even better this weekend. Even with the new competition from fellow Warner Bros. release Joker: Folie à Deux, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is holding onto a high percentage of both its locations and showtimes from last weekend. That factor, in combination with continued strong word of mouth, the continuing lead-up to Halloween and a non-breakout start from Joker: Folie à Deux, will likely transfer into a very strong hold for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice this weekend. Look for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice to decline just 27.9 percent from last weekend for a third place gross of $11.7 million.
Last weekend Paramount's Transformers One declined a sharp 62.8 percent to land in third with $9.16 million. With the film's loss of IMAX screens and the debut of The Wild Robot both out of the way, the well-received Transformers One should begin to stabilize this weekend. However, that potential stabilization will be limited somewhat this weekend by the film playing in a significant 864 fewer locations this weekend than last weekend (for a total of 3,106 locations). Transformers One could decrease a respectable 43.2 percent to place in fourth this weekend with $5.2 million.
Universal and Blumhouse's Speak No Evil held up very nicely last weekend, as the R-rated thriller declined only 26.6 percent to place in fifth with $4.26 million. With continued strong word of mouth and the film holding onto a very high percentage of its showtimes per location this weekend, Speak No Evil will likely hold up well again this weekend to remain in fifth place. A decline of 24.8 percent would transfer into a weekend gross of $3.2 million for Speak No Evil.
Read more at BoxOfficeReport.com.
