Box Office Predictions: ‘Flight Risk’ Poised To Lead A Slow Weekend As ‘Mufasa’ Sails Past $600mil
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: January 24th, 2025 - January 26th, 2025
In what looks to be another slow overall frame at the box office, Lionsgate's Flight Risk should be the weekend's top new release. The action thriller was directed by Mel Gibson and stars Mark Wahlberg, Michelle Dockery and Topher Grace. Flight Risk is playing in 3,161 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. Thus far, critical reviews for the film have been largely negative. For years Wahlberg had been a consistent draw at the box office, but in more recent years Wahlberg hasn't been the box office draw that he was in the past. Last year the Wahlberg led Arthur the King (also a Lionsgate release) debuted with $7.63 million. Another opening weekend comparison for Flight Risk may prove to be the Gerard Butler led Plane, another Lionsgate release, which had a three-day opening weekend of $10.27 million back in January of 2023. Flight Risk could debut with $9.8 million this weekend, which might be just enough to hold off Mufasa: The Lion King for first place over the frame.
Disney's Mufasa: The Lion King pulled off a surprise victory for first place last weekend with respective three-day and four-day grosses of $12.06 million and $15.43 million. Over the three day frame, Mufasa: The Lion King was down a slim 15.2 percent from the previous weekend. Mufasa: The Lion King has continued to hold up well during the midweek, as the film's Wednesday performance was down just 26.1 percent from the previous Wednesday. Family fare in general may also get an additional boost this weekend from audiences wanting to catch up on family films before Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Dog Man enters the marketplace next weekend. Mufasa: The Lion King should continue to hold up very well this weekend and could decline 22.0 percent to place in a close second with $9.4 million. In other box office news for Mufasa: The Lion King, on Wednesday the film passed the $600 million global mark.
Sony's One of Them Days is coming off of a nice second place start with respective three-day and four-day opening weekend grosses of $11.81 million and $14.00 million. The R-rated comedy starring Keke Palmer and SZA has gone over very well with critics and also looks to be going over well with audiences after receiving a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore. Initial daily percentage holds have also been encouraging for One of Them Days, and this weekend the film looks to be holding onto a high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend. Look for One of Them Days to decline a very solid 34.8 percent this weekend to place in third with $7.7 million.
The rest of this weekend's top five will likely be rounded out by family fare. Over the four-day frame last weekend, Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Disney's Moana 2 took fourth and fifth place with respective four-day grosses of $11.06 million and $7.77 million. On Wednesday, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was down 30.9 percent from the previous Wednesday, while Moana 2 was down a very slim 12.4 percent. Those holds both point towards Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Moana 2 continuing to hold up well this weekend. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 could decline 25.6 percent to remain in fourth place with $6.4 million and Moana 2 could decrease 16.6 percent to remain in fifth with $5.0 million.
This weekend also sees the wide releases of NEON's Presence in an estimated 1,750 locations and Angel Studios' Brave the Dark in 2,230 locations, as well as A24's semi-wide expansion of The Brutalist (the critically acclaimed Brady Corbet directed film will be playing in 1,118 locations this weekend – fresh off of receiving 10 Academy Award nominations on Thursday). Presence, a supernatural thriller directed by Steven Soderbergh, has gone over well with critics and could debut with $3.8 million. In comparison to previous Angel Studios releases, there doesn't appear to be as much interest in the Damian Harris directed Brave the Dark, which could debut with a modest $2.6 million this weekend. With the significant expansion and additional buzz from the recent Oscar nominations, The Brutalist could increase an impressive 61.5 percent from last weekend to take in $3.2 million this weekend (which would move the film to just under $10 million to date domestically).
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