Will Any Film Upset ‘Oppenheimer’ For Best Picture? - Awards Outlook
Photo from Universal Pictures
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Will Any Film Upset Oppenheimer for Best Picture?
To answer the question the title of this article offers… NO! Oppenheimer will be winning the Oscar for Best Picture and Best Director. The narrative for Christopher Nolan is too strong and the film is beloved by so many. It was a part of a huge cinema weekend and over-performed at the Box Office. It is also the frontrunner for several other Oscars, so there is really no doubt this will win the top prize.
That being said, it is really tough for a Best Picture frontrunner to stay the frontrunner for more than a month, with the exception of last year’s Everything Everywhere All at Once and Nomadland prior, the Best Picture frontrunner has been dethroned by a more unsuspecting film: CODA over Power of the Dog, Parasite over 1917, and several films over Green Book. Therefore, even with the expectation of Oppenheimer dominating in March, there are several films that have the chance to perform a major upset. They will be presented in the order of likelihood of an upset.
Anatomy of a Fall was the greatest surprise when the nominations came out with an expected Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Actress nomination but also receiving a surprise Best Director nomination for Justine Triet. The key nomination for this film was getting into Best Editing and, while this film is not the nomination leader, it is one of the most likely films to take the Original Screenplay Oscar, which could draw a line to Best Picture.
Another Editing nominee is The Holdovers, which missed out on the director nomination for Alexander Payne, but the lack of a Best Director nomination has not stopped films from winning Best Picture before. With this film being another likely winner of Best Original Screenplay, a definite winner in Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and another probable win for Paul Giamatti (with Cillian Murphy threatening), this could win many top awards that will cause it to possibly catch momentum and win Best Picture.
American Fiction was another film that performed unexpectedly well on nomination morning with expected nominations for Best Picture, Actor, and Screenplay but also with surprise nominations for Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Score. It’s also one of the leading contenders to win Best Adapted Screenplay, which could lead to an upset for Best Picture.
Barbie is the other film likely to win Best Adapted Screenplay and with its eight nominations and overwhelming popularity, plus the possible backlash to missing Director and Actress nominations, it could turn into a potential Best Picture winner. However, the popular film that saves cinema usually ends up with just a nomination and maybe the occasional technical win (see Top Gun: Maverick).
Killers of the Flower Moon and Poor Things both have a great deal of nominations with ten and eleven, respectively. However, Killers of the Flower Moon missed out on a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination which was surprising and could potentially be a momentum killer for that film. Meanwhile, Poor Things might be the victim of being too weird and offbeat for the Oscars and ,while this is one year after the strange film Everything Everywhere All at Once dominated, that happening two years in a row is unlikely.
The Zone of Interest and Maestro are among the least likely to win Best Picture. Both of these films got many crucial above the line nominations, but their narratives have the most struggle. The Zone of Interest will easily grab the win for Best International Feature and is definitely the most challenging watch. Maestro meanwhile has lost a lot of steam losing out on a Best Director nomination with an audience reaction that was fairly muted.
Finally, Past Lives is the least likely to win as it is this year's Women Talking only getting a nomination for Best Original Screenplay and Best Picture. While the Screenplay nomination is fairly up for grabs, that won't be enough to give this the momentum to win.
It needs to be reiterated that it is very unlikely that any of these movies will be able to take out Oppenheimer for either Best Picture or Best Director, but it's interesting to see possible pathways and if narratives will shift in the next month.