The Oscars’ Best Actress Race Is Annette Bening’s To Lose - Awards Outlook
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
The Oscars’ Best Actress Race Is Annette Bening’s To Lose
Like Best Actor, the category of Best Actress in a Leading Role has started to form a solid list of prospects with the chance of a few surprises. However the majority of those receiving buzz have not been seen yet and so a clear front runner relies more on narrative than reaction to the performance itself.
In terms of which actress has the best narrative this year, it seems to belong to Annette Bening who is at Glenn Close levels of snubbery and has definitely earned this Oscar as the role she is playing is a reflection of her career in the film Nyad. This film has a lot of pull as it has buzz beyond just the Best Actress category in that it is the first narrative feature being directed by Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi who previously won for the documentary Free Solo.
The one thing holding back Bening is the controversy behind the real person she is playing who has had the tendency to embellish her accomplishments and has some controversial views. However, from early reviews it seems like she is portraying the character with warts and all and this is not a film that is depicting the character as a hero.
Another actress who has been considered due for a while now but not as long as Bening is Carey Mulligan, who either grabs nominations for her performances, or surrounds the season with buzz. It seems that she is going to be given quite the showcase in the new film Maestro as she has been given credit over Bradley Cooper in the poster. Not to mention, Cooper’s previous directorial effort led to several nominations for the entire cast, and the Academy loves a biopic.
It is difficult to see how Past Lives is going to end up doing at the Oscars as it was an audience and critical favorite in the first half of the year but fairly quiet with an early release date and the small nature of the film there is a chance it may underperform. Regardless, it seems like Greta Lee has a solid chance of a nomination as she is quite the stand out.
Like Past Lives, it's difficult to predict where Barbie will be in the Oscar race but for the different reason of it being a much more popular film and it being a fairly goofy comedy, but Margot Robbie delivers a performance both complex and radiant even with the silliness throughout. Robbie is no stranger to getting nominated and while it's not a sure thing, it would not be a surprise.
Sandra Huller is the festival darling of the year starring in two huge Cannes hits in Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall, both of which are being strongly considered Oscar contenders. With this great year there is not doubt that she can carry the momentum toward a nomination which seems like Anatomy of a Fall would be her best.
As a singer, Fantasia Barrino is not exactly someone who has frequented the awards conversation when it has come to performances but the musical adaptation of The Color Purple seems to hold a lot of promise for many performers including and especially her.
The reviews for Poor Things have just come out and they are absolutely stellar, including for Emma Stone’s crazy performance. Like Robbie in Barbie this looks like a very unconventional performance in a very strange film which could turn off some academy voters regardless of how deserving it is.
Director Todd Haynes has led many performances to getting nominated in his films and May December seems like another film that has some premier performances from Julianne Moore and Natalie Portman where Portman could easily be an upset in the Best Actress race.
There is always the chance of a fun surprise by the time nominations are announced in January but there is a solid race beginning to take shape and these ladies are the most likely.