The Oscar Race Is On: Best Supporting Actress - Awards Outlook
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
The Oscars Race Is On: Best Supporting Actress
Lily Gladstone moving to Best Actress for her performance in Killers of the Flower Moon was a huge bit of awards news over the past few weeks as she could have been the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress. While the move leads to some interesting updates to the lead actress race, it also makes everything wide open and less predictable for Best Supporting Actress. At this point there are six names that are very likely nominations and, while one of those people will eventually be passed up for a nomination, it's difficult to see who that will be at this time.
One of leading prospects is Da’Vine Joy Randolph who has delivered several great performances over the past few years and is due for a nomination, even though she hasn’t been on the scene long. She is a standout in The Holdovers, matching potential nominee Paul Giamatti and, while the director Alexander Payne has not been in the Oscar spotlight for some time, he has always been great at getting nominations for supporting performances.
Christopher Nolan is infamous for his poorly-written female characters, but Emily Blunt’s character in Oppenheimer is a slight course correction, though this is definitely due to her powerful performance (especially through her classic Oscar scene later in the film). Emily Blunt had a huge awards year in 2018 with both Mary Poppins Returns and A Quiet Place and, while the latter gave her a SAG award, neither led to an Oscar nomination. Blunt is more due for an Oscar nomination than anyone on this list. In addition, Oppenheimer is still the Oscar front runner for many categories and with that will come many nominations, including a likely one for Blunt.
The Color Purple is easily the biggest mystery of this Oscar season as this film has yet to be seen by major groups and, if it promises to be the explosive Oscar play of the season. From the trailers we see Danielle Brooks, reprising her role from the Broadway musical, as well as previous nominee Taraji P Henson; both seem like they will be easy nominations and, while it can be difficult for two actresses to be nominated in the same category, it is still plenty possible.
Before Nyad was released in the fall festival circuit it seemed like a tremendous opportunity for Annette Benning to finally win her Oscar in the Lead Actress category. However, in an ironic twist of fate, Jodie Foster seemed to stand out more, putting Benning more on the bubble.
May December was given a somewhat lukewarm-to-positive reception from some of the early film festivals, but Julianne Moore is often a sure-thing for nominations. It is also true that performances in Todd Haynes films frequently are paths to many nominations. However, Charles Melton is getting a huge amount of the attention for his performance and, while it’s possible for there to be two nominations, especially in different categories, there is a chance that his performance could overshadow the rest of the cast.
While the above mentioned performances are fairly solid locks, there are quite a few longshots that could end up surprising in the coming months.
Saltburn has proven to be quite divisive in its reception, but everyone agrees that Rosamund Pike is a treat in the film and could grab a nomination. It will be interesting to see where Ferrari could end up in the Oscar race but Penelope Cruz is a solid stand-out and always a popular awards choice.
Sandra Huller is pretty close to a lock for Best Actress in Anatomy of a Fall, but she is having quite a year in general, also starring in Zone of Interest (another likely Oscar heavy-hitter). The momentum from both her and the film could lead to a nomination.
It’s difficult to know if Academy votes are going to remember the film Air at all, but if they do it will likely be for Viola Davis’s performance, a standout of the film.
Barbie is definitely going to be able to snatch up several different nominations and maybe even some for performances. For instance, America Ferrara is responsible for delivering the film's key speech, which definitely could lead to a nomination, and yet it still seems fairly unlikely.
The common disclaimer of these articles and predictions is that they are subject to change quite a bit. However, the women listed above seem like they have the best chance at the moment.