The Oscar Race Is On: Best Supporting Actor - Awards Outlook
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
The Oscars Race Is On: Best Supporting Actor
Much like Best Supporting Actress, there are several options in the race of Best Supporting Actor. Unlike Best Supporting Actress there is a very clear front runner with several other prospects that all feel very strong.
At this point, this award is Rober Downey Jr’s to lose. His performance in Oppenheimer was a stand out for sure, but also that narrative for Robert Downey Jr is one that many can side with. The actor had a tremendous comeback and also then became huge in the superhero corner and will ultimately be honored for a successful and distinct career. In addition, when the SAG-AFTRA strike finally ends, he will prove to be a terrific campaigner and therefore Academy voters will love him personally (if he hasn't already generated plenty of goodwill). The only thing standing in his way is the amount of time between the film’s summer release and when the Oscar nominations will be announced.
It seems more and more likely that Barbie is going to be a heavy Oscar favorite and while there are plenty of uncertainties within the nominations, one that is the most clear is Ryan Gosling giving a comedic performance. These types of performances are not as prevalent in nominations which is all the more reason why this might be there and he was easily the stand out. This could also be a makeup nomination for the snub in his other comedic performance, The Nice Guys. It will be very difficult to determine if both Barbie and his performance will end up being considered too silly, but that does not seem to bother the Academy as of late.
Poor Things did tremendously well throughout the festivals and has been buzzed about for various nominations in above and below the line categories. Mark Ruffalo seems like a definite lock for his quirky performance in the film. There is also a chance this film could grab a second nomination for Willem Dafoe in a category for which double nominations could frequently occur, but of the two Ruffalo feels like he is getting much more buzz for his performance.
Killers of the Flower Moon is going to be an intense Oscar heavy-hitter with several different performance nominations being very likely. Robert De Niro seems to be one of the most likely to receive a nomination for this performance from his legacy.
In May December, a Todd Haynes movie where Juliane Moore and Natalie Portman are acting their hearts, out it seems almost entirely unlikely that the lesser known Charles Melton would be getting the most praise and the most buzz, but here we are. He is the most likely to receive a nomination from amazing reaction from most of the film festivals.
Colman Domingo is a very solid contender in the Best Actor race. However, the Best Actor race is proving to be a tremendous challenge and there are scenarios that have been drawn up where he could miss out on a nomination in that category. He may then end up nominated for Best Supporting Actor in The Color Purple as a make-up, which could be a film that dominates throughout the nominations.
Matt Damon getting nominated for Oppenheimer is probably the biggest longshot on this list but there is a chance that if Oppenheimer over performs in nominations, Damon could sneak in.
The usual disclaimer at the end of these articles is that there can always be some other surprise that comes out of nowhere and reaches the top, but this year really does feel like these will be the names but I will be happy to eat my words for a fun surprise.