The Fall Festival Hangover - Awards Outlook
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
The Fall Festival Hangover
You wake up in your bed with a dry mouth and a headache, fully clothed and not knowing how you got there. You have the faint memory of a strange Emma Stone and a grumpy Paul Giamatti and you have a text from Annette Benning not realizing you made plans with her to go for a swim. You have a false nose on your face and you're not sure why? In your pocket are a bunch of crumpled up one dollar bills and popcorn kernels and a post it note that says American Fiction with a question mark. Yes. You are currently dealing with the fall festival hangover and even if you were not fortunate enough to go, the buzz is still hanging in the air much like the faint smell of chlorine from a disappointed pool man who is suddenly in bed next to you.
There are still some prominent films that have yet to be released to the public but the reaction from these festivals speaks volumes. One of the biggest surprises is the TIFF Audience Award winner, American Fiction, which is a film that went from hardly even being heard of, to now being a lock for a Best Picture Nomination due to the audience award practically being an automatic bid. It will be interesting to see if that buzz can continue for Jeffrey Wright in Best Actor which is going to be a tough road as that race is fairly locked at this point, but has had a lot of goodwill in the industry and has a performance that easily stands out.
Alexander Payne has been away from the spotlight for quite some time and his movies have been getting a lower amount of reception every time but The Holdovers seems to be a return to form. It was an audience favorite loved by many festival goers with nominations for Paul Giamatti and Da'vine Joy Randolph seeming very probable.
Before the festival season began, Poor Things was considered an outside long shot but after the reception at the Venice Film Festival, and the awarding of The Golden Lion, it seems like it will be the weird film of the year. It’s sure to bring about a definite Best Picture nomination, a definite Best Actress nomination for Emma Stone, with several technicals along with Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe also getting a great deal of buzz.
It’s difficult to see how Priscilla will be received as a whole and Sofia Coppolla has only had her luck with Lost in Translation when it comes to awards attention. Cailee Spaeny won massively at Venice and is therefore well on her way to a Best Actress nomination which definitely was not as expected a few weeks ago but is very likely now. Even for those who disliked Rustin for its reliance on the formulaic genre, everyone agrees Colman Domingo is sensational and will definitely solidify himself in the Best Actor race.
The Boy and the Heron has to deal with buckets of hype from being a Hayao Mayazaki film and are buckling under that hype as it is received in a positive manner but isn’t considered his best which is crazy levels of unfair, as there are classics that can never be surpassed in quality that have been made by Miyazaki. This film will easily be a part of the Best Animated Feature but it probably won’t go much further than that.
Bradley Cooper was another director who is getting undeserved muted praise for his new film Maestro and how it may not measure up to his previous A Star is Born, but still has gotten a pleasant enough reception where there is no doubt the film will be a heavy awards hitter.
Nyad should be a clear path for Annette Benning’s first and long overdue Oscar but her reception was squelched by the scandals of the film’s subject. Meanwhile, Jodie Foster is stealing a lot of the buzz of the spotlight for the Best Supporting Actress buzz which will be an interesting return narrative.
All of Us Strangers has some of the most up and coming promising actors in past nominee Paul Mescal and Andrew Scott. It’s a film that everyone left the theaters with tears in their eyes over and so this is a huge chance that could be an upset. Richard Linklater’s comedy Hit Man does not seem like the typical Oscar like movie, but it was of the most fan favorites and there is no doubt this could grab a possible screenplay award.
Carrie Coon, Nathash Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen have shamefully been on the outside looking in when it comes to awards but His Three Daughters had been heavily praised as so they also have the chance at an upset for some possible performance nominations.
We all learned a few years back not to count Anthony Hopkins out of a race and his performance in One Life seems like a great opportunity for awards. The only drawback is that the film is about the holocaust and there is another film in Zone of Interest that is more of a front runner. There’s no rule that there can only be one film about a subject nominated but it could create some cancellations of votes.
There were many more films at the festivals, more festivals that haven't happened yet, and other films outside of the festivals that have buzz so there is plenty of room for surprises and plenty of time for new and exciting prospects but the race keeps getting closer.