Predictions For The Drama Categories At The Emmys - Awards Outlook
Photo from FX
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
This is the final entry of the Emmy categories predictions and, like Comedy and Limited Series, there is a clear front runner. Unlike the other two, however, this front runner is not even close to being brought into question, where Shogun is clearly going to dominate.
Best Drama Series
The Crown
Fallout
The Gilded Age
The Morning Show
Mr. and Mrs. Smith
Shogun
Slow Horses
3 Body Problem
Since Shogun moved into Drama series, it has been the clear frontrunner as there really wasn’t much of one before that. The only series that has the potential to possibly make some noise is the final season of The Crown, which probably was going to win before Shogun’s arrival, but more because the category was fairly weak. Also, even though this was the final season of The Crown, it has still won Best Drama for a past season and therefore has already received its flowers. Shogun also hasn’t received any controversy of category fraud or libel suits like the other two front runners in Comedy and Limited.
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)
Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age)
Maya Erskine (Mr. and Mrs. Smith)
Anna Sawai (Shogun)
Imelda Staunton (The Crown)
Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show)
The standout in this category is Anna Sawai for Shogun and is the likely winner as she both deserves it and will likely catch the momentum of the show’s praise. The Morning Show was very popular in all of these performance categories and the two leading ladies of Jennifer Anniston and Reese Witherspoon have yet to win for this, but they will have other chances. Imelda Staunton could also creep in to the win as this is her first time being nominated for her role in The Crown and her last chance to win, but all the smart money leads to Sawai.
Best Actor in a Drama Series
Idris Elba (Hijack)
Donald Glover (Mr. and Mrs. Smith)
Walton Goggins (Fallout)
Gary Oldman (Slow Horses)
Hiroyuki Sanada (Shogun)
Dominic West (The Crown)
This is probably getting repetitive, but this will definitely go to Shogun as well. Hiroyuki Sanada is a legendary actor who has been in the business for decades and deserves this honor for his career and an exceptional performance. It was great to see Gary Oldman finally get a nomination for Slow Horses and that series is finally getting its due in terms of award nominations, but this show’s popularity is still climbing and could only do better from here. Dominic West, like Staunton in The Crown, is getting his first nomination for his performance and his last chance to win, but this is not a strong enough narrative to push Sanada out of the top spot.
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Christine Baranski (The Gilded Age)
Nicole Beharie (The Morning Show)
Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
Greta Lee (The Morning Show)
Lesley Manville (The Crown)
Karen Pittman (The Morning Show)
Holland Taylor (The Morning Show)
This is easily the most boring category thanks to an abundance of nominations from The Morning Show, which does not feel like a serious competitor at all. Therefore there doesn't seem like a clear front runner for this category and so it seems like Elizabeth Debecki’s prize to lose. For the past two seasons, she has been scary accurate toward the depiction of Princess Diana and lost last year to Jennifer Coolidge in The White Lotus, so this feels like an easy win for her and one she deserves.
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Tadanobu Asano (Shogun)
Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
Mark Duplass (The Morning Show)
Jon Hamm (The Morning Show)
Takehiro Hira (Shogun)
Jack Lowden (Slow Horses)
Jonathan Pryce (The Crown)
While Shogun is a shoe-in for most of the drama categories, this might be the only one where it is not a slam dunk. Tadanobu Asano is the likely contender with a stand out performance in the series, but Takehiro Hira could take away some votes and cause the two of them to split. However, it does not seem likely that anyone else could win this award. The Morning Show seems like the series that will always have numerous nominations, but never sink a win, except for Billy Crudup who is on here once again and could take the top prize. However, this seems like Shogun’s to win.
The Drama categories are a bit more cut and dry then the others with a show that is worthy of all of the commendations it will likely receive in Shogun. Next week will be the final and official full list of Emmy predictions.