Predictions For The Comedy Categories At The Emmys - Awards Outlook
Photo from GQ
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Predictions for the Comedy Categories at the Emmys
Much like the previous season, the comedy series categories will all be dominated by The Bear and, while it is the likely winner in several of these categories, there is a chance of it possibly seeing some upsets.
Best Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary
The Bear
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Hacks
Only Murders in the Building
Palm Royale
Reservation Dogs
What We Do in the Shadows
The Bear is the leading contender to win in this category, but it faces an uphill battle as the public outcry of it actually being a comedy becomes louder and louder. While The Bear is currently up for its second season, the lukewarm reception from the third season could possibly negatively impact its chances, much like last season’s chances increasing positively upon the second’s release. The one thing that is helping The Bear is that there is not really a possible stand out in second place right now. It seems almost strange that Abbott Elementary has not won Best Comedy, especially considering it's the only way to honor classic network comedies. Hacks and Only Murders in the Building could not get out from under Ted Lasso and both of them have been due for the big win for quite some time. Reservation Dogs and What We Do in the Shadows have been riding in the back seat for a while, but have finally gotten some more above the line nominations and, while the chances of either winning are low, there is still a chance of an upset with that increase in momentum.
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows)
Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)
D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (Reservation Dogs)
Jeremy Allen White will probably be winning once again for The Bear, but the concerns for that series that were listed above are definitely still solid issues and, therefore, there will be even more room for the potential upset. Martin Short has gotten a great deal of praise for his performance in Only Murders in the Building and could squeak in a win if The Bear doesn't keep up its momentum. There also could be one final chance to honor Larry David as he concludes his series, Curb Your Enthusiasm, but that doesn't seem too likely at this point.
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)
Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building)
Maya Rudolph (Loot)
Jean Smart (Hacks)
Kristen Wiig (Palm Royale)
This category is going to be a straight up bloodbath with three past winners in Quinta Brunson, Ayo Edeberi, and Jean Smart, who have never actually competed against one another, all having solid justifications for winning this year. It seems like it will probably be Jean Smart for another great season of Hacks, but Edeberi could also win depending on the trajectory for The Bear and which direction the wind will blow. It’s also likely for Brunson to pick up a second win as she is the most recent winner in this category. There is probably a slight edge to Jean Smart, but it's truly anyone’s category at this point.
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Lionel Boyce (The Bear)
Paul W. Downs (Hacks)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear)
Paul Rudd (Only Murders in the Building)
Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary)
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)
With the enthusiasm for The Bear slightly waning for the reasons listed above, Ebon Moss-Bachrach winning for his performance in the second season might not be as solid of a slam dunk as was predicted before. However, there is no real challenger for Moss-Bachrach and so he is likely to coast to a win. Paul W. Downs could possibly win as a way of honoring his writing on Hacks or Tyler James Williams could win as he has been due with his performance in Abbott Elementary.
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Carol Burnett (Palm Royale)
Liza Colón-Zayas (The Bear)
Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)
Meryl Streep (Only Murders in the Building)
There is no major frontrunner in this category with Sheryl Lee Ralph being the only previous winner for her role in Abbott Elementary, but with the lack of a front runner this seems like a great opportunity for Hannah Einbinder to finally win for a performance in Hacks. She has definitely been due to win since the beginning of the series so she is the winner that seems the most likely.
The big night of the Emmys is inching closer and closer and there are more and more possibilities for the comedy categories, and while there are major frontrunners throughout, there are still plenty of opportunities for exciting upsets.