Predicting This Year’s Oscar Nominees - Awards Outlook
Photo from The Hollywood Reporter
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Due to fatherhood and other excuses to placate my laziness, I have not been writing as many columns and therefore, along with predictions of all of the nominations, here is an analysis of each Oscar category. Let’s go!
Best Picture
At this point there are eight absolute locks for Best Picture and this includes The Substance, which seemed like it would be too crazy to be a Best Picture nomination, but keeps on becoming more and more popular the closer we get.
Anora
The Brutalist
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
A Complete Unknown
The Substance
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
After those eight, there are three probable movies that could fill in the last two spots. A Real Pain seems like a very likely nomination, especially with it being a front runner for Best Screenplay and an even more likely win for Best Supporting Actor thanks to Kieran Culkin’s performance.This would also be the Sundance darling of the year, of which which there is always at least one from each year.
Sing Sing and Nickel Boys are the two films that are battling for this last spot, both of them being genuinely loved by critics and getting attention at several precursor awards, but both being held back by limited theater showings that kept them out of the conversation.
Best Actress
Best Actress has been one of the most crowded races of this year with the top four being essentially locked in as follows:
Mikey Madison for Anora
Karla Sofia Gascon for Emilia Pérez
Demi Moore for The Substance
Cynthia Erivo for Wicked
After these four, the remaining spot could go to either Angelina Jolie for Maria or Nicole Kidman for Babygirl, but there is a possibility that they both are passed over for two different long shots. Fernanda Torres is getting a lot of traction for her performance in the film I’m Still Here while Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths is trying to pick up momentum with enough time.
Best Actor
Like Actress, Best Actor has four nominations that are set with one opening that is up for grabs. The four likeliest nominations are as follows:
Adrien Brody for The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown
Ralph Fiennes for Conclave
Colman Domingo for Sing Sing
It seems most likely that Daniel Craig will take the final spot for the fifth nomination, but there is potentially some push back with Queer not getting any love from any other category; this should not limit a performance, but sometimes does. The other three performances that will step in place of Craig are much more unlikely longshots in Sebastian Stan for A Different Man, Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain, and Hugh Grant for Heretic. These are all still likely to surprise, but definitely could not happen.
Best Supporting Actress
There are five very likely nominations for Best Supporting Actress:
Ariana Grande for Wicked
Margart Qualley for The Substance
Zoe Saldana for Emilia Pérez
Isabelle Rossellini for Conclave
Felicity Jones for The Brutalist
Felicity Jones is easily the shakiest contender and has the potential to be upset by Danielle Deadwyler for The Piano Lesson to make up for the rough snub for Till a few years ago. Also, Selena Gomez definitely still has the potential to sneak in for Emilia Pérez, especially with the popularity of that film.
Best Supporting Actor
This category has six very likely nominations, which means that one one has to go:
Guy Pearce for The Brutalist
Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain
Yura Borisov for Anora
Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown
Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing
Denzel Washington for Gladiator II
Sing Sing has been having trouble staying in the spotlight with a fairly middling campaign, but the actors are definitely doing the best so Clarence Maclin has a chance. Meanwhile, Gladiator II had a lukewarm reception, but the standout of the film is Denzel Washington, so it is probably a battle between those two.
Best Director
The director race is all but sealed up with the following films and their prospective directors:
Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez
Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
Sean Baker for Anora
Edward Berger for Conclave
Coralie Fargeat for The Substance
Fargeat would definitely be the biggest surprise, but seems like a solid pick in covering the base of an international and female director. The only directors nipping at her heels would be RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys which is not popular, but beloved critically, and Jon M. Chu for Wicked which is probably too popular for this category, like Top Gun: Maverick or Barbie.
Best Original Screenplay
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
The Substance
There are four definite locks for Best Original Screenplay that seem unshakable, but the final slot could be anyone's guess. Hard Truths has been having trouble getting nominated anywhere but Mike Leigh is a regular in this category. All We Imagine As Light could also be nominated to make up for its ineligibility in the International Film category.
Best Adapted Screenplay
There is not a lot to say for this category, there are not many other prospects so these five seem like fairly solid locks:
Conclave
Sing Sing
Nickel Boys
Emilia Pérez
Dune: Part Two
Best Cinematography
There are three definite nominations in this category listed below, but after that it can be anyone’s race:
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys
Unfortunately, Nosferatu is not going to be the Oscar juggernaut that it deserves to be, but if it’s getting nominated for anything this is its likeliest category. Conclave will be an Oscar heavy hitter and this is one where it could also be nominated. Emilia Pérez will likely be the most nominated movie come nomination morning, so it is also likely to sneak in above one of these two with Maria also being the type of movie that can upset.
Best Original Score
This is one of the many categories of which there was a shortlist a few weeks ago which makes the narrowing down much easier. The five mentioned below are the likeliest nominations with Challengers definitely surging in popularity since its Golden Globes win. There is a chance that Wicked ends up nominated instead, which would just be there to cause frustration, but it's not likely.
The Brutalist
Conclave
The Wild Robot
Challengers
Emilia Pérez
Best Original Song
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
“Kiss The Sky” from The Wild Robot
“Harper And Will Go West” from Will & Harper
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
The majority of these predictions are fairly obvious. The two songs from Emilia Pérez are definitely locks and there always needs to be a space reserved for a Diane Warren song, which this year is from Six Triple Eight. “Kiss the Sky” has been quite popular and would cover a song from an animated film. The final nomination could likely go to Kristen Wiig’s song from Will and Harper, but it might be too comedic and silly to garner the nomination, so it could instead go to “Compress/Repress” from Challengers as a companion nomination to the score for the film. However, it could also go to Elton John for his concert film as he is no stranger to the Oscars. Kneecap could surge in popularity in the International Film category, which could leak into this category. It could also go to Disney movies Moana 2 and Mufasa: The Lion King, the latter of which was composed by Lin-Manuel Miranda who has been chasing that EGOT.
Best Editing
Dune: Part Two
Conclave
Anora
The Brutalist
Emilia Pérez
This category is frequently synonymous with Best Picture and so the majority of the Best Picture frontrunners are likely to be the nominated.
Best Production Design
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
The Brutalist
Gladiator II
Conclave
Nosferatu
Wicked seems like the most obvious pick for this category as you are transported entirely to a fantastical world, which is also the case for Dune: Part Two. Gladiator II also pays close attention to the sets and, while it will not be getting attention for the above the line categories, it will likely be served in the craft categories (especially this one). Like movies about fashion designers getting attention from the Costume category it seems only right that a movie about an architect will be available for production design, so The Brutalist may sneak in. That last spot will either go to Conclave or Nosferatu and, while Nosferatu very likely deserves the nomination, it will probably go to Conclave for a noble effort of set design and as a much higher Oscar frontrunner than Nosferatu.
Best Costume Design
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Maria
Nosferatu
From science fiction and fantasy to period pieces, these seem to be the films that will stand out the most for this category. There is a chance that Conclave could sneak in over Nosferatu because of its popularity, but it does not seem terribly likely.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
A Different Man
The Substance
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Substance and A Different Man are obvious contenders and are the likeliest of winners for this category. Meanwhile, Emilia Pérez and Wicked are going to be nomination leaders and their respective momentums will help them with this category as well, even though one of them required the complexity of… green paint. There are numerous films that could take the final nomination including The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Maria, Dune: Part Two, or Nosferatu, but this category also loves to give nominations to films no one has heard of and so Waltzing with Brando could jump into the mix.
Best Sound
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
Musicals are often popular in this category and so Wicked and Emilia Pérez will likely be in the mix along with A Complete Unknown, which has multiple musical scenes. Dune: Part Two and Gladiator II will be the likely nominees for the sake of their action scenes, but The Wild Robot or Alien: Romulus could sneak in there as well.
Best Visual Effects
Dune: Part Two
Wicked
Twisters
Alien: Romulus
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
There are five likely nominations but, with the exception of Dune: Part Two, none of these feel like locks and could easily be replaced by Better Man, Gladiator II, Civil War, Deadpool and Wolverine, or Mufasa: The Lion King. This is one of the more unknown categories, which makes it fun!
Best International Feature
Even with a shortlist, this category manages to throw in a few surprises that no one will expect:
Emilia Pérez from France
The Seed of the Sacred Fig from Germany
I’m Still Here from Brazil
Flow from Latvia
Vermiglio from Italy
How to Make Millions before Grandma Dies from Thailand
Kneecap from Ireland
The Girl With the Needle from Denmark
Dahomey from Senegal
The most definite nomination is Emilia Pérez and after that I’m Still Here and The Seed of the Sacred Fig are very likely nominations. Flow is continuously rising in popularity and could sneak in here, while Kneecap is loved by anyone that sees it which means it could end up as a nomination. Dahomey, The Girl with the Needle, How to Make Millions before Grandma Dies or Vermiglio are also likely to grab one of the remaining nominations.
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out 2
Flow
The Wild Robot
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Memoir of a Snail
This is the most boring category. It will very easily be these five nominations and there is no potential for surprise. The only competition here is Moana 2 which does not seem to have a chance against any of these.
Best Documentary Feature
The Documentary category is just as difficult to decipher as International Feature with no real frontrunner available at this time:
Dahomey
The Bibi Files
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Daughters
Will & Harper
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane
Union
Will and Harper is the most popular film on this list but this could easily lose the nomination as the documentary branch hates films that focus on celebrities and also frequently hates the front runner nomination. The Bibi Files and No Other Land handle some intense hot button issues which people may be too worried about selecting with the feat of controversy. Daughters and The Remarkable Life of Ibelin are the heartwarming films that will likely tug at heartstrings and end up getting nominated. Dahomey is likely to double dip in both the documentary and international film categories. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat is working with found footage which sometimes does not make it, but other times works wonders. Union and Sugarcane are also focusing on important issues that could garner the attention of the branch.
The nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 23rd, 2025!