Oscars Category Dissection: The Technicals - Awards Outlook
Photo from CNN
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
The Oscar nominations were released last week and they were of course met with derision, which began to reach levels of utter chaos in both reaction and perception. Instead of diving into what was snubbed and what was a surprise, a deep analysis of the predictions seems to be warranted, beginning with the Below the Line categories.
First up is Best Original Score which brings about what might have been the most unforgivable snub, which in turn ends up making the race fairly clear. Challengers was definitely a type of front runner for this category after its success at the Golden Globes. It seems that its lack of a nomination will clear the way for The Brutalist. The Wild Robot could potentially ride on its good will and Conclave seems to be losing steam, while Wicked and Emilia Pérez don't seem to have stand out scores, even though the latter has the chance to overperform regardless of its poor public reaction.
Even though it may not win for Best Original Score, Emilia Pérez will definitely be winning for Best Original Song and likely for “El Mal” as that song is basically the face of the film. Even those that are not fans of the film seem to enjoy that scene, at least.
From the results of the Golden Globes, the theme of this Oscars season will likely be The Brutalist vs Emilia Pérez and Best Cinematography is a category where the two will clearly clash. The edge will probably go to The Brutalist as that film is more the technical giant. Nosferatu is definitely the audience favorite, but it doesn’t have enough juice, so the nomination is the win itself.
Best Production Design will be one of the most interesting categories as it could go to any of the nominated films. Wicked is probably the likeliest to win as it takes the characters to a fantasy world and all of the backgrounds are made with limited CGI, but The Brutalist could edge out a win as it is literally about an architect (which is similar to the films about fashion designers winning Best Costume Design).
Like Best Production Design, Best Costume Design will probably go to Wicked as it has some of the more intricate designs for the fantasy world, but this is a fairly wide open category with few of the actual films being front runners to Best Picture and therefore it could go in numerous directions.
For the past few years the Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar has also been won by a performance Oscar and so if this pattern continues that leaves Emilia Pérez, Wicked, or The Substance. It seems that the most likely win will go to The Substance, which will also lead to a win for Demi Moore and the makeup in that film has been what people have talked about the most.
Dune: Part Two seems to be a likely lock for Best Visual Effects, especially as there is not an underdog favorite like Godzilla Minus One this year.
Best Sound should also go to Dune: Part Two, but this award also frequently goes to a musical and so it can additionally go to Wicked or Emilia Pérez, and even A Complete Unknown which involves musical performances.
The statistic of Best Film Editing being synonymous to Best Picture has not held as much as it used to, but the two frontrunners for Best Picture are both nominated in this category so it is likely a battle between The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez. It will likely go to Emilia Pérez as that film has the faster pace and the shorter runtime. This could also lead to an upset win for Anora if that film receives Best Editing, which could lead to several above the line wins which would cause the film to possibly sneak in and win Best Picture, which is probably more hopeful thinking, but still possible.
As the season progresses, some of the categories are likely to become more and more clear, but for now this is the way the board looks.
The Oscars air on ABC and Hulu March 2nd, 2025.