Oscars Analysis: Looking Below The Line - Awards Outlook
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Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Oscar Analysis: Looking Below The Line
Some categories at the Oscars are called the “below the line” categories, also known as the technical awards. They are often the awards that you see within the middle of the ceremony and only true cinephiles know who will win (let alone what they even mean). However, they are the little things that make up a movie and are therefore always some of the most important.
The constant narrative for most of these awards is that Oppenheimer plans to dominate and there is still no doubt of that happening in just about all of the categories it’s nominated for, above and below the line.
Best Cinematography is most likely going to Oppenheimer with Hoyt Van Hoytema finally winning for a collaboration with Christopher Nolan. Poor Things however has won some of the precursor awards for cinematography and its inventive visual style could definitely stand out. Rodrigo Prieto also had a huge year with his cinematography of both Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon with the latter being nominated and therefore there is a chance he is honored for his work this year.
When it comes to Original Score, there really isn’t much of a race as Oppenheimer has the greatest chance of winning. If there was going to be one challenger it would be Killers of the Moon getting an emotional posthumous win for Robbie Robertson who did some tremendous work interweaving the culture.
The most certain prediction one can make this year is that Barbie will be winning the Oscar for Best Original Song, but the matter of choosing which of the two that is nominated is much more complicated. “I’m Just Ken” has become a cultural touchstone and was one the occasional precursor award. However, this branch does not often go for the more comedic song and therefore “What Was I Made For?” will probably win the Oscar, especially since it just won the Grammy for Best Song.
Best Editing is frequently a tricky category that often runs parallel to the Best Picture and yet that hasn’t been the case over the past few years. This year it seems like that will be the case with Oppenhiemer winning and not many other nominees coming close.
Of all of the categories below the line, Production Design is easily the most difficult to predict with almost all of these films having potential. Barbie created an entirely different world and easily stands out with Poor Things also being a contender for its otherworldly nature. Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer both also have chances as they both were responsible for creating entire towns, which was a tremendous feat. If I had to pick one it will probably be Poor Things but at this point it’s anyways guess.
One of the most interesting categories this year is Best Costume Design with what is probably a neck and neck race between Barbie and Poor Things. Many are putting down Barbie because those outfits have already been developed, but they should still be commended for their attention to detail. However, Poor Things is looking at costumes that are far more inventive and will probably get the win, but do not be surprised if Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Napoleon to possibly sneak surprise wins for costumes that also work.
In any other year, Maestro would be an absolute lock for Best Makeup and Hairstyling and still is quite the front runner, but coming up along its heels is Poor Things which also has a great deal of obvious visual makeup and the potential of a performance win (with Emma Stone) which often coincides with the Makeup award. However, Maestro checks a great deal of boxes with a film that portrays a real person causing the actor to be unrecognizable.
Best Sound is another very easy win with little doubt that Oppenheimer takes the lead. The only insanely small sliver of an upset would be The Zone of Interest where the sound is so prominent in the film, but there really is no way Oppenheimer loses this category.
While Sound is fairly obvious, Visual Effects is far more up in the air category with Oppenheimer being absent and thus leaving a massive crater. The Creator and Godzilla Minus One are two small films that are basically at the top of the list with The Creator being natural and unsuspecting and Godzilla Minus One being the wholesome standout. Mission Impossible’s award for this category is finally being nominated while Marvel does not have great luck at the Oscars and especially this category, leaving Guardians of the Galaxy out. Napoleon had a tremendously surprising showing at the Oscars in the technical categories and would be a very welcome and possible old school type of win in this category making this the most difficult to predict with a potential win for The Creator.
While narratives are beginning to rise for these lesser known categories, there are still plenty of weeks to cause things to change with some of the guilds yet to release their wins and the BAFTAs being a tremendous momentum shift or possible confirmation of momentum.