Oscars Analysis: Examining The Performance Categories - Awards Outlook
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Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Oscar Analysis: Examining The Performance Categories
These four categories include a number of performances deserving of praise with the two supporting races having a definite front runner and the lead races being a bit trickier. However both races are beginning to take shape.
Best Supporting Actor is all but locked up for Robert Downey Jr in Oppenheimer with the actor winning the majority of the precursor awards while having a satisfying narrative of both a comeback and being due for recognition. To that end, none of the other nominees come close at all.
Best Supporting Actress is fairly certain to go to Da’Vine Joy Randolph for her performance in The Holdovers. The Holdovers is a beloved film and Randolph has won many precursor awards. Her momentum only grew with her most recent BAFTA win which is all the more impressive given the BAFTAs’ usual lack of diversity. At this point there is no other performer in the category with a clearer path.
Best Actress is way too close to call with Lily Gladstone from Killers of the Flower Moon and Emma Stone from Poor Things. Emma Stone has a slight lead as she has the bigger performance and is wonderful at campaigning while being beloved by the Actor’s branch. However, while there is still a lot of juice behind Lily Gladstone who is more under the radar with her performance, you could feel the importance in the room when she won the Golden Globe.
The BAFTA won’t help with a prediction in this category as Gladstone is not even nominated for reasons explained before, however Emma Stone did still grab the win and that can only help her momentum. With Stone and Gladstone fighting neck and neck for the Oscar, there is a small rumor that Annette Bening could end up slipping into the win for Nyad as someone who has been campaigning hard and is due in the eyes of many. She has been getting huge reactions to lifetime achievement awards she’s been receiving this year. This upset it highly unlikely but still an interesting theory.
The Best Actor category is also a two man race with Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer and Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers. Both films are universally loved and both actors gave great performances and have been campaigning to much success, yet both actors are also very humble and therefore are not great at selling themselves. There is a world where Oppenheimer dominates but there is another world where the wealth would want to be shared and Paul Giamatti would win. Cillian Murphy picked up the BAFTA and it will likely be Paul Giamatti that picks up the SAG award to continue the dead heat, but if Murphy can keep the streak going it looks like he will be a shoe-in.
Like the Best Actress category, there is a universe where these two frontrunners cancel each other out and then Bradley Cooper could upset to grab the top prize for Maestro. This is very unlikely, but Cooper is due for an Oscar, beloved in the industry, and also does an exceptional job campaigning. He is also the most heavily made-up character in the category and from a cynical observation that usually leads to an Oscar win, although that might not be likely this year.
Even though the Oscars ceremony is getting closer and closer, there are still a great deal of precursor awards that will help shape the races. Odds are it will be pretty exciting and unpredictable for some of the categories come ceremony night!