Oscars Analysis: Examining The Categories For Best Picture, Best Director, And The Screenplays - Awards Outlook
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Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Oscar Analysis: Examining The Categories For Best Performance, Best Director, And The Screenplays
The Oscars are only two short weeks away and next week i’ll have my final predictions in every category. However, the last four categories that have not been examined in depth are the big ones: Best Picture, Best Director, and the two Screenplays: Original and Adapted. At this point, Picture and Director are all but sewn up and there are clear front runners in the screenplay categories, but still plenty of chances for other wins.
Best Picture and Best Director are easily going to go to Oppenheimer and Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer, respectively. There are theories that because of ranked choice voting there could be a potential upset like Anatomy of a Fall, American Fiction, or others. However, because there is not a clear underdog in the second place slot and given that Oppenheimer has not wavered in popularity, it will be very steadily winning the top prize. Even if there are some very slight rumblings of Oppenheimer being upset for Best Picture, there is absolutely no way that Christopher Nolan will lose out on Best Director with no one clipping at his heels.
It seems probable that Anatomy of a Fall will be winning the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay with the only real threat being The Holdovers as it is easily beloved by general audiences. However, Anatomy of a Fall has the BAFTA and Golden Globe under its belt, as well as several key nominations including Best Director for Justine Triet, so it seems fairly locked in for the win.
Best Adapted Screenplay is a bit harder to predict. The BAFTA winner was American Fiction and this is probably the front runner as the screenplay award frequently goes to a new and exciting writer like Cord Jefferson. Additionally, this film over-performed with its Oscar nominations showing it gaining popular at the right time. The real competitor in this category is Barbie which did not compete against American Fiction at the BAFTAs, as it was rightfully considered Original. Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach crafted a very creative screenplay and are quite established in the industry and due for a win. However, it does not look like it is gaining the momentum necessary. Poor Things is another film that has the same sentiments as Barbie but is much stranger which this category often gravitates toward, but Poor Things seems to be losing momentum as we hurdle toward the Oscar ceremony.
It’s getting more and more exciting as we creep closer and closer to the big night with next week being the final predictions.