Oscar Analysis: Animation, Documentary, International and the Shorts 

International, Animated, Documentary, Animated Short, Documentary Short, and Live Action Short are six categories that frequently run to the side of the rest of the Oscars with very little overlap in nominations. However, lately, with a more international Academy, International Feature has begun to show itself in several other nominations and that is no exception this year.

The basic rule with the International Feature category is that the film nominated for Best Picture is the winner for the International category with All Quiet on the Western Front, Drive My Car, Parasite, and Roma all being recent examples. Therefore that leads to an Oscar win in this category for The Zone of Interest, which not only has the Best Picture nomination but also nominations for Director, Screenplay, and Sound. The only thing working against The Zone of Interest is that it's just now becoming available to audiences and while this fact doesn't always matter, as the Academy obviously gets screeners, it's still something that could make a difference. However, Society of the Snow has been on Netflix for a bit and this is a well-liked accessible film from a feature director with the power of Netflix, so there is the slightest chance for an upset, but the nominations that The Zone of Interest has gives it way more momentum. 

The Animated feature category is a two film race and interestingly enough neither of them are affiliated with Disney. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron are battling it out for the top spot. The Golden Globe win gives The Boy and the Heron an edge but the popularity of Spider-Man has a chance to pull off the win as well. However, this category has not been kind to sequels with the two Toy Story sequels being the only winners. Neither of these films have other nominations which could help give one the edge so it will be interesting to see who could win in March. 

The Documentary category loves to always pass up the nomination to the front runner making a much more interesting race. This year Still: A Michael J Fox Story and American Symphony were the two front runners and unsurprisingly both were passed up for nominations, leaving a wide open race. Most of the documentaries are unknown and so any one of them could snatch up the win, but 20 Days in Mariupol seems like the most important film and the most powerful. With Four Daughters and The Eternal Memory able to tug at the heartstrings, they could possibly capture the hearts of voters. 

The three short subject film categories are the hardest to predict as they are the least known by the general public and do not have their finger on the pulse of the culture. In the past few years, one of the general patterns is that if the short film is on a streaming service it has more of an advantage as it has more eyes and more financial backing for a campaign. 

This year, not only is there a nomination that is from a streaming service but it is also directed by past nominee Wes Anderson. There is very little doubt that The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar will win the Oscar for the Live Action Short Film Category. There is a narrative that Anderson is due for a win and with the backing of Netflix and several stars in the film it will be put much more on a voter’s radar. The After is also streaming on Netflix with star David Oyelowo but is not as popular. 

There is not a clear front runner for Best Documentary Short Subject. The ABCs of Book Banning is covering a very prescient issue which could easily cause that to win with the other front runner being The Last Repair Shop, which is available on Hulu and Disney+; it also has been winning many of the preliminary awards and probably had the best chance of winning.  

Of the short film categories, Animated is the hardest one to pick as there is absolutely no standout. This award would often go to a Disney or Pixar short, however, there is not a short film from that studio, leaving the field a bit more open. Letter to a Pig has received the most precursor wins and seems like the potential winner, but War is Over! has a chance to upset with it being made with Weta Digital and therefore Peter Jackson is involved in this film and with him campaigning there’s a chance this could win as well. 

These are sometimes the most fun and unpredictable categories but they are still important because even if they are not as popular they showcase unsuspecting filmmakers and unsuspecting films. 

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