From Gaius Bolling

This weekend marks the return of Jennifer Lawrence to the big screen after a bit of an absence with the release of the raunchy R-rated comedy, No Hard Feelings. Despite appearing in streaming efforts such as Don't Look Up (2021) and Causeway (2022) for Netflix and Apple TV+, respectively, Lawrence hasn't been on the big screen since 2019's X-Men misfire, Dark Phoenix. After that film was released, the actress took a bit of a break from acting because she felt unsatisfied with some of her projects and she became the subject of a bit of media scrutiny that sometimes accompanies performers when the media and the court of public opinion determines that have been a bit overexposed. During this time Lawrence married gallery director Cooke Maroney and she gave birth to their first son, allowing the actress to focus on her personal life rather than the next big project.

The choice of No Hard Feelings to return to the big screen is a bit of an interesting one for Lawrence and it's a gamble for more than one reason. The actress is no stranger to displaying comedic chops because you can see shades of her humor in films like Silver Linings Playbook, which earned her an Academy Award for Best Actress, and American Hustle, which garnered her a Best Supporting Actress Oscar nomination. No Hard Feelings is a bit of a different beast. The film, which features Lawrence as a down-on-her-luck young woman that answers a listing to date a shy 19-year-old in order to get him out of his shell prior to college, is more of a straightforward comedy that would be at home during a time movies like Superbad and The Hangover ruled the box office. At first glance, you wouldn't think Lawrence would take on a role like this and maybe due to that surprise, it could be an excellent move by the actress if it pays off. There is a big IF at play here because No Hard Feelings entered box office tracking expecting to open between $10-13 million, not a robust opening for a comedy that cost a reported $70 million to make. This tracking is in place because the raunchy R-rated comedy, let alone one with a female lead, hasn't lit the box office on fire in a few years. This means a lot is riding on Lawrence to get this film to break out because she's the name above the title and potentially the movie's biggest draw if the film's particularly hilarious trailers haven't convinced moviegoers this is one worth seeing.

So, how much of a box office draw is Lawrence? The actress has been lucky enough to be a part of tentpole releases that have made big books and even more prestige releases that generated legs at the box office because they became awards season darlings. After her big break in the 2010 drama Winter's Bone, which earned the actress her first Academy Award nomination for Best Actress and made her the second-youngest actress to earn that honor at the time, Lawrence landed her first high-profile release in the Matthew Vaughn-directed X-Men: First Class. The film served as a prequel to the X-Men film series and saw the actress taking on the role of the shapeshifting mutant Mystique, a role originated by Rebecca Romijn. At the time, the actress signed on for that film and two sequels, not knowing just how busy she was about to become due to other projects. X-Men: First Class ultimately became a hit, grossing $350 million worldwide and becoming her highest-grossing film at the point.

That success paled in comparison to what she would achieve at she took on the role of Katniss Everdeen in 2012's The Hunger Games. An adaptation of the first book in author Suzanne Collins' Hunger Games trilogy, the film would skyrocket Lawrence to international stardom after the movie grossed over $690 million globally, making it the top-grossing film featuring a female lead at the time. Later in 2012, Lawrence appeared as Tiffany Maxwell in David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook, a film that earned her that aforementioned Oscar for Best Actress. The comedy-drama was also a box-office hit, grossing $236 million worldwide on a slim $21 million budget.

Lawrence's box office reign continued in 2013 with the second Hunger Games release, Catching Fire, which proved to be an even bigger hit than its predecessor, grossing $865 million globally. The film remains her highest-grossing movie to date. Much like she did in 2012, Lawrence followed that up later in the year with another David O' Russell reteam in American Hustle. While the role of Rosalyn Rosenfeld was a supporting one, it still brought her significant acclaim and another hit that wasn't due to being derived from a big IP. The black comedy crime film ultimately grossed $251.2 million worldwide on a modest $40 million budget.

Between 2014 and 2016, Lawrence continued to appear in box office hits. 2014's X-Men: Days of Future Past outdid its predecessor with a gross of $748.1 million globally and while the final installments of the Hunger Games didn't match the gross of the previous film, Mockingjay - Part 1 and Part 2, each grossed over $650 million worldwide and maintained her position as a global star. It's after this that some cracks begin to show, however.

Lawrence reteamed with David O'Russell for a third time in the 2015 biopic, Joy. While she did earn another Academy Award nomination for Best Actress, the film was not as well-received as their previous collaborations. On a budget of $60 million, the film ultimately grossed $101.1 million worldwide, down considerably from her two previous films with the director.

In 2016, Lawrence returned as Mystique again in X-Men: Apocalypse but it would be another outcome of diminishing returns. The film didn't earn the rave reviews received by Days of Future Past and the box office was down to $543.9 million globally, a respectable figure but considered a disappointment at the time of release. 2016 also saw Lawrence joining the $20 million club when she starred in the science fiction romance Passengers alongside Chris Pratt. The actress received top billing over her male co-star but that meant she took the brunt of the film's underwhelming reviews and so-so box office considering its massive $150 million budget ($303.1 million worldwide).

2017 saw Lawrence leading Darren Afronofsky's psychological horror film, Mother! The movie was a hugely polarizing film with audiences and critics, earning a very rare "F" CinemaScore before grossing a not-so-great $44.5 million worldwide on a $30 million budget. Lawrence followed this up in 2018 with the spy thriller Red Sparrow, a release that received a decidedly mixed response from critics. The box office was ok compared to its $69 budget, grossing $151.6 million globally but it was far from the highs of her early hits. 2019's Dark Phoenix would be her last appearance on the big screen up until now and this would turn out to be a total disaster, although she can't be blamed for it. The problems with the film were far beyond her reach and she ultimately did the film as a favor to her friend Simon Kinberg, who was stepping up to the director's chair after writing several X-Men installments. At the end of the time, Dark Phoenix was a total bomb, grossing $252.4 million a massive $200 million budget.

On paper, No Hard Feelings feels like a safe bet. It's not a big-budget extravaganza and it's not a prestige release that needs to ride on stellar reviews. As of this writing, the film is 63% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, and the reviews, even the more negative ones, praise Lawrence for her comedic turn and for holding up the film on her back. A series of fun trailers make this look like a must-see comedy and that probably would've been the case ten years ago but this particular brand of comedy hasn't shined much at the box office lately. If you're looking for a hit with a female lead in this arena, you have to go back to Amy Schumer's 2015 comedy Trainwreck, which grossed an impressive $140.8 million on a $35 million budget. That was once a period when films like Knocked Up, Superbad, and Neighbors were no-brainer hits but in the rise of the streaming era, these types of films have shifted mostly to those platforms. Director of No Hard Feelings, Gene Stupnitsky, did score a raunchy R-rated hit with Good Boys in 2019 ($111 million global gross on a $20 million budget) but that film possessed the appeal of sixth-graders using foul language. The movie had a hook. In the case of No Hard Feelings, Jennifer Lawrence has to be the hook.

There is no denying the talent of Jennifer Lawrence. Her accolades alone prove that. It seems like Sony Pictures has faith in Lawrence and No Hard Feelings since they positioned it as a summer release and likely believe that moviegoers are starving for a raunchy good time at the movies. My hope is that the movie defies its low tracking and breaks out with audiences. What I do know is that, once those numbers come in, no matter which way they go, Lawrence will be at the center of those stories discussing the film's success or failure. After a bit of an absence, the actress is in a position to prove herself once again.

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