Golden Globes Reactions - Awards Outlook
Photo from Golden Globes
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Golden Globes Reactions
The first main attraction of the awards season has been the Golden Globes which starts the momentum for some campaigns, kills others, and sometimes is strange enough to create the narrative for some fun surprises.
Lately the Golden Globes have not been the most reliable in their Oscar predictions with Best Picture especially being different in the past several years (with the exception of Nomadland in 2020). Also in the last few years, the Globes have been marred in controversy lacking diversity and accepting bribes. They have since made steps to correct those issues and there is a chance that the Globes have officially established the frontrunner.
Oppenheimer was already the front runner for several Oscars but its winning of Best Picture Drama, Best Original Score, and Best Director to a grateful Christopher Nolan have all but solidified this film as the frontrunner for those particular Oscars and potentially many others.
Another award that Oppenheimer was expected to win was Best Supporting Actor for Robert Downey Jr. who is the front runner currently in that category. However, there are many people nipping at his heels like Charles Melton for May December and Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things, the latter from a film that also had a good night and could be a formidable threat. Downey Jr. was genuine in his speech ,which always helps, but he has been the front runner for a long time which can tend to be a problem.
Da’Vine Joy Randolph was also a front runner for a supporting performance and definitely has a very easy path to win after this victory. She is a part of a movie that is truly beloved by everyone and could win several other awards in The Holdovers. Also, with the exception of Danielle Brooks from The Color Purple there are not many intense competitors… and The Color Purple looks to be getting less and less popular in the awards season, so Randolph is a very solid contender.
Oppenheimer’s biggest surprise was when Cillian Murphy won for Best Actor beating out Bradley Cooper for Maestro. This probably puts Murphy as a lead contender for the category, however last year a heavily made-up Brendan Fraser lost the Globe and then won the Oscar for The Whale, so there is a possibility that the tide could change because frequently when someone is in makeup that tends to lead to an Oscar. Paul Giamatti also won for Best Actor in a comedy and, while he might not be the front runner, this does help solidify his position as one of the five nominations and, like Randolph’s win, this is evidence of a possible upset for The Holdovers.
Sunday night’s Globes also helped confirm that the Best Actress race is a two woman race with both Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone winning. Both received wondrous receptions for their wins and were both very grateful. However, you could feel the importance within the room for Gladstone’s historic win, which will definitely be kept in mind when the Academy votes. The one thing against Gladstone is that her performance is quite subtle while Stone’s is a lot louder. There is nothing wrong with that… in fact that she was my personal preferred performance, but the Academy tends to go for the one more noticeable.
Another pleasant surprise were the wins from Anatomy of a Fall, especially for Best Screenplay. This film beat out several screenplay-heavy hitters especially Barbie and Poor Things. This not only rockets the film to the top of the list for Best Original Screenplay but also solidifies it as a definite Best Picture nominee for which it was probably on the bubble until this revelation. Ironically it also won for Foreign Language Film which it will not be eligible for at the Oscars as France selected a different title.
For the films of 2018, it was the Golden Globes that started a tremendous under dog campaign for Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse for Best Animated film, so it was almost definite that its sequel Spider-Man: Across the Spider Verse was going to win and yet Miyazaki ended up grabbing the prize for his film The Boy and Heron. With that win that win this category became a two film race. However, the Globes have historically picked animated films that are somewhat conventional, such as Missing Link over Toy Story 4 for 2019.
Many are painting the narrative of Barbie being a loser on this night having only expectedly winning Best Original Song and the strange new category of Best Box Office Hit. This probably won't slow down its momentum too much.
Next week will be the final predictions for the Oscar nominations and easily many nominations have been solidified.