Golden Globe Nominations Reactions After Sitting With Them For A Week - Awards Outlook
Photo from CBS
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
After several different critics awards and more independent groups have begun to shape the Oscar race, one of the most prominent awards groups has named their nominations. The Golden Globes have begun to officially solidify and, in some cases as per usual, erode the landscape of this year’s Oscars. Even after rising above all of their past controversies, the Golden Globes have not been stellar at predicting the Oscars race, but they do manage to be able to draw and even predict a few patterns throughout.
Challengers has been one of the more perplexing films of this awards season as it has been on numerous top ten lists, but somehow has not had any momentum in the awards race. The Globes gave it nominations in Best Picture Comedy and Best Actress for Zendaya, both of which are both signs of life for the film, and while it will be a tough uphill climb, this is definitely a positive.
Best Actor in Drama will likely be the same lineup as Best Actor at the Oscars with most of the Comedy nominations in that category being more fun than serious, but there could be the potential for some of them to potentially sneak a nomination someone like… Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice?
Sebastian Stan is a standout actor with two key performances in films that have either been avoided due to subject matter we wish would go away, in The Apprentice, and a film that has not been nearly as popular in A Different Man. Still, he was nominated for both at the Globes, will these mean Oscar success? it is still not likely, but a bit more probable.
If there was a movie that was the most victorious from these nominations, it is The Substance which is right on the bubble in several categories, but with it receiving two performance nominations, a nomination for Picture and a nomination for Writing and Directing, it seems more and more likely that it could see some Oscars success.
Saoirse Ronan and Blitz seem to be in the most trouble as popularity of the film is waning and its last chance would have been a Globe Nomination. Ronan missing a nomination for this film and her less popular film The Outrun shows that a nomination for her is much less likely.
Even with its poor reception from the internet reactions, Emilia Pérez will not be denied with it receiving more Globe nominations than any other Musical/Comedy before and, therefore, it is likely to grab the Best Picture in that category. This will lead to several more nominations and ultimately awards come Oscar time.
Wicked is some of the main competition for Emilia Pérez, but that movie will definitely be getting the Box Office award, so Emilia Pérez could win for Musical to likely share the wealth. Wicked also has the drawback of missing out on a nomination for director Jon M. Chu, which was not a definite nomination, but still one that could have helped the film’s momentum.
Anora did expectedly well with their nominations, but one of the key misses that stood out was a Best Supporting Actor nom for Yura Borisov who has been getting a great level of momentum and becoming more and more likely for a nomination at the Oscars.
The Brutalist is definitely fitting the role of the more artsy film as it began to win many critical awards, but the film breaking into several of the Globes nominations, while not a surprise, all but confirms that this film will likely be nominated for the Oscars.
Conclave did incredibly well with nominations and so it will be very successful when the Oscar nominations come out. Specifically, Isabella Rosellini, who definitely was on the bubble with such little screen time, is now much more likely to achieve Oscar success with at least a nomination. However, the lack of a nomination for Stanley Tucci in Supporting is definitely a setback, if not for the film, for specifically that actor.
One of the most egregious snubs is Danielle Deadwyler missing out for Best Supporting Actress in The Piano Lesson which was a film that got entirely ignored. Deadwyler seemed like a Supporting lock and could still be nominated, but the lack of attention for the film and now this performance is definitely a problem.
Nickel Boys and September 5 received sole nominations for Best Picture, which definitely leaves gaps for potential awards success, but definitely not as much. However, Hard Truths got blanked, which is definitely a problem for both the film and the lead actress Marianne Jean-Baptiste who genuinely should be on here to lead to a nomination for at least her.
One of the other big disappointments is Sing Sing which has been having trouble with its Oscar campaign since its poor theater distribution in the summer. Only receiving a nomination for Best Actor for Colman Domingo definitely does not help its already fledgling Oscar campaign.
A Complete Unknown looks like it will very likely get Oscar nominations for Picture and Actor as the reactions are overwhelmingly positive and the film was also nominated for these two awards in the Globes. It also was nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Edward Norton, which is beginning to become more and more likely for the Oscars. Elle Fanning and Monica Barbaro have been getting some light buzz for Best Supporting Actress, but neither of them getting a Globe nomination throws a bit of water on their chances.
The Globes are not the end all be all when it comes to predicting the Oscars, but this definitely reinvigorated some races and put the nail in the coffin of other campaigns.