Examining The Likely Nominations For The Best Original Screenplay Category At The Oscars - Awards Outlook
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
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Last week, Adapted Screenplay was explored, a category with five very solid locks, three of them being the front runners for several above the line categories (picture, screenplay, director, and actors). This leaves Original Screenplay fairly wide open without a true front runner and several different options that could come formulate into a top five.
The Holdovers is going to be an awards heavy hitter in many different categories, but the one where it has the best chance of picking up a win is in Best Original Screenplay. While the film is not written by Alexander Payne, it definitely still has his style and therefore Academy voters will probably give it the nomination to indirectly honor him.
Past Lives is a small film that came out much earlier in the year and with that there is a chance it will get passed over for many deserved nominations like Best Picture and Best Actress, but at the present moment it is still hanging in there with buzz. Even if it falls short for those nominations, however, there is a solid chance that it will still grab a nomination and possibly be the winner of the Original Screenplay Oscar which can sometimes go to the more quiet, unsuspecting film.
Anatomy of a Fall is going to be another huge Oscar player with a very probable nomination for lead actress Sandra Huller. It’s also probable for Best Picture and with that, a nomination for Original Screenplay is definitely in the cards.
Barbie shocked the world with its move to Best Original Screenplay instead of the Best Adapted Screenplay category for being based on the toy, but the Academy seems to be okay with the switch as they have not yet intervened. It’s difficult to determine where this film will be when it comes to many above the line nominations, but its clever and inventive screenplay almost definitely will put it in play for Original Screenplay
The early reactions for Maestro have put Bradley Cooper close to the top for Best Actor and have also helped put the film safely in Best Picture contention, as well as Best Director. The screenplay has not been raved about as much as those other elements, but it could catch a nomination based on the film's momentum throughout the season.
Todd Haynes has strangely only been nominated for one Oscar and that was for writing Far From Heaven, therefore some would argue that he is due for much more praise and May December may be that ticket to a nomination for Best Original Screenplay. It’s a film that is considered a lot funnier than his usual work, but comedies have the potential to thrive in either screenplay category, especially in Original.
Emerald Fennell received an Oscar for the writing of her debut film Promising Young Woman, which received the win despite a fairly divisive reaction, and her sophomore film Saltburn seems to be even more divisive. This could prove to continue to be a difficult road to a nomination, but it’s in the mix.
There is a world where the film Air, despite it’s early release date, still manages to dominate by the time nominations are announced in January, although this feels like the most unlikely prospect of a nomination. It could probably easily happen in a year with weaker contention, but like Maestro the film could ride on the coattails of other multiple nominations.
The Original Screenplay category is a bit more wide open than Adapted and there could be another film that sneaks in like Iron Claw, which no one has seen yet, but at this time it has pretty much taken shape with the above films.