Examining The Likely Best Director Nominees - Awards Outlook
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Examining The Likely Best Director Nominees
Since the Best Picture category expanded to ten nominees, the Best Director nominations have often eclipsed Best Picture with the occasional surprise. In several categories, there are three films which that are obvious frontrunners, the Best Director category being no different. Unless something changes in a huge way, the following are the definite locks for nominations:
Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon
Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things
While it may be a bit too early to predict the winner for Best Director, it seems likely to be one of these three front runners with Christopher Nolan being the likely top pick; Oppenheimer is likely to win several categories. There is a narrative of Scorsese being due for another win as it has been a while since his win in The Departed, but Nolan not having a single Oscar is a bit more of a glaring absence than not winning for 17 years. Lanthimos is most likely in third currently with a film that is predicted to have a sensational amount of nominations with Best Director being an obvious addition through that positive emotion.
After these three, there are two slots left that are fairly up for grabs, but will most likely go to two of the following directors:
Greta Gerwig for Barbie
Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest
Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall
Bradley Cooper for Maestro
Alexander Payne for The Holdovers
Celine Song for Past Lives
Barbie will clearly be nominated for several Oscars ,but as it is being considered the more commercial success, it may not be taken seriously enough to get Greta Gerwig a Best Director nomination. It’s such an ambitious project there, though, that there is a chance she will be honored for the accomplishment.
Over the past few years, there has been one Best Director nomination reserved for an International Film. There was Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car in 2021, Thomas Vinterburg for Another Round in 2020, Bong Joon-Ho for Parasite in 2019, and Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War and Alfonso Cuoron for Roma, both in 2018. Last year was a slight exception where Triangle of Sadness was not an international feature but was from an international director in Ruben Ostlund. Also, with the exception of last year, there has been a trend of nominating a female director. This year there are two directors of International films with Triet and Glazer and, with Triet being a woman, that would check off two of the Academy’s perceived boxes. However, the Director’s branch does not care about checking off boxes and therefore Zone of Interest is much more likely to garner a nomination for this category, especially to honor the return of Glazer, someone who has not received a nomination yet.
Bradley Cooper was criminally snubbed back in 2018, not being nominated for his stunning directorial debut in A Star is Born. He should at least get a makeup nomination for his new film Maestro, which is also getting a great deal of positive buzz, especially along with his performance for which he is the clear frontrunner.
The two longest shots on this list are Alexander Payne and Celine Song, both directing very quiet movies that are more about characters and their emotions than movies that dominate technical nominations. These movies are also accomplishments by the director and so there is a chance either could end up being nominated.
There could be some arguments made for other directors, but most of them feel so much like long shots that it is more likely to be five directors from this list of nine.