Early Predictions For The Best Actor Race At The Oscars - Awards Outlook
Photo from Searchlight Pictures
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Early Predictions for the Best Actor Race at the Oscars
At this point in the year it is looking like Best Actor is a very limited race with some interesting prospects, but not many. As a result, there is plenty of opportunity for someone to show up out of left field and change the narrative.
When the trailer for A Complete Unknown arrived last week, Timothée Chalamet shot up to the top of the rankings as a definite nominee and possible winner when many experts of Bob Dylan saw that he replicated his voice perfectly. There are still some that are rolling their eyes at this idea, especially because musical biopics used to be the bread and butter of the Oscars, but this type of film has lately not been as popular. The genre often leads to a nomination, but doesn't often lead to a win.
Before that trailer was released, Colman Domingo was and essentially still is the favorite to win for his performance in Sing Sing. The film has been getting a lot of buzz since it premiered at festivals last year and Domingo has been the lead of all of it. There has been a lot of talk about how he is due; his first nomination was last year for Rustin and him getting a win this year will be greatly deserved, plus a solid narrative.
Conclave is full of actors that have either never been nominated or were nominated a long time ago. Ralph Fiennes is in the latter camp and this seems like the perfect opportunity for him to be recognized.
Joaquin Phoenix won the Oscar for the first Joker film and so it is only natural that he will be considered for a nomination once again for his work in the sequel, Joker: Folìe a Deux. It’s not clear yet if the sequel will be the Oscar heavy-hitter that the first was, but it’s definitely on the radar for awards buzz including for Phoenix.
Gladiator II is another sequel where its predecessor received a great deal of awards attention, including a Best Actor win for Russell Crowe, and yet Ridley Scott has been having less luck in the awards department lately for his films. With Paul Mescal being around the race more, however, he is likely to grab a performance nomination for the film.
As said in previous columns, films based on August Wilson plays often have success in nominations for performance awards, such as Chadwick Boseman and Viola Davis for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Denzel Washington and Davis for Fences, where the latter won an Oscar. John David Washington is leading The Piano Lesson with a cast that is also inviting a lot of buzz and he could catch a nomination as well, especially if the film ends up over-performing in nominations.
Finally, A Real Pain has the chance of being the awards darling from Sundance and with Jesse Eisenberg both starring and directing the film, a nomination for Best Actor would be a way of honoring all of his accomplishments for the film.
There must be more out there jockeying for position and possibly grabbing a nomination, but at this time, these are the likeliest contenders.