Checking In On The Oscar Race For Best Picture - Awards Outlook
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Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Checking In On The Oscar Race For Best Picture
It’s been a while since Best Picture has been examined in this column, if at all, and the race has shaped up to have a solid ten nominations with a number of alternates that could all easily be upsets.
Several of these films have been talked about tirelessly, but there are a few that are on the bubble and so i’ll look at them with the most in-depth examination. The following films are solid locks in the Best Picture nominees.
Solid Locks
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
The Holdovers
Maestro
These films are heavy hitters with legendary Oscar veterans behind them and have been praised by audiences and critics alike. At this point, it would be an incredible snub if any of these five would be left out.
These next five films are very likely to be nominated but are definitely on the bubble for various reasons.
On the Bubble
Barbie
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
The Zone of Interest
American Fiction
Barbie will most likely be this year’s Top Gun: Maverick, a well-received film that is a huge box office success, but there is still a contingent of the Academy that will feel it to be too silly. Past Lives is the little film that could and while that is not necessarily an impossible feat to receive a Best Picture nomination, there is a chance this film loses steam.
Over the past few years there has been an unofficial spot reserved for an international film, with some examples being Drive My Car, Parasite, and Roma. Last year, Triangle of Sadness was not exactly an international film, but was created by international director Ruben Ostlund. Both Anatomy of a Fall and Zone of Interest could both be considered the international film nominated this year and both of them also have a great deal of spoken English which will make them much more popular to the majority of the Academy, those that may be turned off by subtitles. Triangle of Sadness was also the Palme d’Or winner this year and there has been another recent trend of those winning that Cannes Film Festival award to also be Best Picture Nominees. Following that logic, this year’s winner of Anatomy of a Fall could definitely be nominated.
The film most likely of these five to receive a Best Picture nomination is American Fiction which has had a meteoric rise in the past few months, starting with its audience award win at Toronto International Film Festival, which has almost always led to a nomination in the top category. It's still relatively unheard of and will still be interesting to see the audience reaction once released.
The next ten films are much less likely to be nominated but still have a very solid chance to manage an upset over a few of the previous ten mentioned.
Next Ten Alternates
The Color Purple
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Saltburn
Air
Napoleon
Rustin
All of Us Strangers
May December
Ferrari
Priscilla
The Color Purple could easily end up on the list of Best Picture nominations, but the reservations come from the film not having been seen by anyone yet and it having a Christmas release date which has proven to be problematically late in past years. Rustin is being considered a fairly paint-by-numbers biopic and, while that could be considered a turn off, that’s exactly what some Academy voters gravitate towards.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse shook the world when it was released with a tremendous audience and critical response, keeping it as the front runner of a very competitive animated race. It has been a while since an animated film ended up in the Best Picture nominations.
Emerald Fennell’s first film, Promising Young Woman, was a huge Oscar success and, while Saltburn was given a much more divisive response, it should still be given a great deal of attention. While Ferrari has not been given a great deal of Oscar buzz, the reactions coming out of the festivals have been outstandingly positive and there is a chance that the return of Michael Mann could get some Oscar attention.
At this time, All of Us Strangers is getting a great deal of Oscar buzz for Andrew Scott in Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay but at this point it seems like it will be on the outside looking in. However, with all of that in mind there is still a high chance for a great deal of momentum to shift and this ends up in the Best Picture nominations.
A movie like Napoleon, a historical epic from Ridley Scott, would normally be an Oscar front-runner easily, but this one is not getting as much attention mainly because no one has seen it yet. Ridley Scott is also the only one campaigning and he can be a bit prickly in interviews.
Todd Haynes films rarely have luck with Best Picture and yet this could mean that he is due and so there is a chance that May December could sneak into the nomination lists. Like Past Lives, Air was a film released very early and that could be its detriment but this is from a studio that is giving equal compensation to all behind the camera, which is something most important this year and could lead to many Academy members voting for it. Also, when the SAG AFTRA strike ends, Ben Affleck and Matt Damon campaigning together for this film will easily lead to a great deal of success.
Priscilla is being hailed as the best Sofia Coppola film since Lost in Translation, which was her most successful film in terms of Oscar with a win for screenplay and a director and Picture nomination.
It’s been a fun and stressful year for predicting the Oscars and, even though there are some solid and obvious picks in the Best Picture race, this is still a wide open race.