4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions: May 26th - May 29th, 2023

Disney's The Little Mermaid looks to be in store for a very nice domestic start over the Memorial Day weekend holiday frame. The live-action reimagining of Disney's 1989 animated film was directed by Rob Marshall and stars Halle Bailey, Jonah Hauer-King, Melissa McCarthy and Javier Bardem. The Little Mermaid is playing in 4,320 locations this weekend and will be sharing IMAX screens with Fast X. Thursday preview shows for The Little Mermaid start early at 3PM (the film also had select early access shows on Wednesday). On the average, critical reviews for The Little Mermaid have been good, but not great. Due in part to the long reputation of 1989's The Little Mermaid as an animated classic, 2023's The Little Mermaid is one of this summer's more anticipated films. Given the film's expensive price-tag and that The Little Mermaid isn't expected to be as relatively strong internationally as it will be domestically, it's especially important for The Little Mermaid to get off to a good start domestically this weekend.

Over Memorial Day weekend back in 2019, Disney's live-action reimagining of Aladdin started out with respective three-day and four-day weekend grosses of $91.50 million and $116.81 million. The consensus feeling is that The Little Mermaid will outpace the opening weekend performance of Aladdin (though whether or not The Little Mermaid can match the strong holding power of Aladdin remains to be seen). A closer three-day opening weekend comparison for The Little Mermaid may prove to be the $103.26 million debut of the re-imagining of The Jungle Book back in April of 2016. Further break-out potential for The Little Mermaid could be limited slightly this weekend by the film's average showtimes per location not looking to be quite as high as those for most other $100 million openers in recent years, due in part to the amount of overall competition in the marketplace this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Little Mermaid will debut with $131.0 million over the four-day frame, with $104.0 million of that total coming from the three-day weekend. The film's potential three-day start would represent the fourth largest opening weekend of 2023 to date. The film's potential four-day start would represent the third largest four-day Memorial Day weekend debut of all-time.

Universal's Fast X is coming off of a first place debut of $67.02 million last weekend. The tenth film of the Fast & Furious series (and eleventh film of the overall franchise) looks to be going over fairly well with audiences, as it received a B+ rating on CinemaScore. Back in 2021, F9 declined 67.2 percent to gross $23.01 million in its second weekend (with the film taking in $29.10 million over the four-day Independence Day weekend frame). While The Little Mermaid will provide tougher new competition than that faced by F9 in its second weekend (The Boss Baby: Family Business & The Forever Purge), that could be offset by Memorial Day weekend typically being more movie-going friendly than Independence Day weekend. Fast X could decline 64.9 percent over the three-day weekend frame for $23.5 million. Over the four-day frame Fast X could take in $29.5 million, which would represent a 56.0 percent decrease from last weekend's three-day start.

Last weekend saw Disney and Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 decrease 47.7 percent to place in second with $32.41 million. Back in 2017's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 declined 39.7 percent over the three-day Memorial weekend frame to take in $20.91 million (the film's four-day holiday weekend gross was $27.19 million). With tougher new competition this year than back in 2017, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 likely won't hold up quite as well over Memorial Day weekend as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 did. A decrease of 42.9 percent would give Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 $18.5 million over the three-day weekend frame. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 could gross $23.8 million over the four-day weekend, which would take the film's domestic total past the $300 million domestic mark.
Universal, Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Bros. Movie is coming off an excellent hold, which saw the film decrease just 23.9 percent to take third with $9.60 million. Even with the new competition for family audiences from The Little Mermaid; The Super Mario Bros. Movie will still likely be in store for another strong hold this weekend, thanks in part to continued strong word of mouth, the film holding onto most of its average showtimes per location from last weekend and the Memorial Day weekend holiday frame. The Super Mario Bros. Movie could decrease 29.2 percent over the three-day frame to gross $6.8 million. For the four-day holiday frame, The Super Mario Bros. Movie could gross $9.0 million.

This weekend will also see the release of four other significant films, with none of the four expected to light the box office on fire.
Lionsgate's About My Father is a comedy directed by Laura Terruso, which stars Sebastian Maniscalco and Robert De Niro. The film will be playing in 2,464 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 3PM. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and four-day opening weekend grosses of $4.3 million and $5.3 million for About My Father.

Sony and Legendary's The Machine is an action comedy directed by Peter Atencio, which stars Bert Kreischer and Mark Hamill. The film will be playing in 2,409 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM (there is also a live pre-show event with Kreischer that will be playing at 6PM Pacific / 9PM Eastern). BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and four-day opening weekend grosses of $4.1 million and $4.9 million for The Machine.

Open Road's Kandahar is an action thriller directed by Ric Roman Waugh and stars Gerard Butler. The film is playing in 2,105 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and four-day opening weekend grosses of $2.9 million and $3.6 million for Kandahar.

A24's You Hurt My Feelings, a comedy directed by Nicole Holofcener, which stars Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Tobias Menzies, is opening in semi-wide release. Thursday preview shows for the critically acclaimed film start at 4PM. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and four-day weekend grosses of $1.25 million and $1.50 million for You Hurt My Feelings.

Read more at BoxOfficeReport.com.