Box Office Report: ‘The Hunger Games’ Take Gold While ‘The Marvels’ Makes History

Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.

Weekend Estimates Update - November 17th, 2023 to November 19th, 2023:

Lionsgate's The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes opened in first place this weekend with an estimated $44.00 million. That was quite similar to the $46.11 million launch of The Marvels last weekend. Like The Marvels, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes didn't come anywhere close to duplicating the opening weekend success of its predecessor (2015's The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2, which launched with $102.67 million) and hadn't been expected to do so prior to release. However, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes was significantly less expensive than The Marvels was and in all likelihood will hold up better than The Marvels, and perhaps significantly so after The Marvels experienced a historic second weekend decline this weekend (more on that later). There were a number of factors that limited potential for The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes this weekend, including the young adult genre being far less popular now than it was a decade ago, the film's run-time of 157 minutes (especially in a crowded marketplace), mixed critical reviews and the lack of series star Jennifer Lawrence as part of the film. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes was directed by Francis Lawrence (who directed the last three The Hunger Games films) and stars Tom Blyth, Rachel Zegler, Hunter Schafer, Jason Schwartzman, Peter Dinklage, Josh Andrés Rivera and Viola Davis.

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes started out with $19.10 million on Friday (including an estimated $5.75 million from Thursday preview shows that began at 3PM), declined a reasonable 21.5 percent on Saturday to gross $15.00 million and is estimated to decrease 34.0 percent on Sunday to take in $9.90 million. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes had an estimated opening weekend to previews ratio of 7.65 to 1, which is an encouraging sign for the film going forward. With a solid B+ rating on CinemaScore, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes looks to be going over somewhat better with audiences than it has with critics. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes grossed an estimated $4.1 million from domestic IMAX screens, which represented 9.3 percent of this weekend's overall domestic gross. Internationally, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes grossed an estimated $54.5 million this weekend from 87 international markets. That places the global launch for the film at $98.5 million. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes grossed an estimated $3.2 million from international IMAX screens (including $0.70 million from China), for a global IMAX start of $7.3 million.

Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Trolls Band Together was off to a nice second place start with an estimated $30.60 million. With the inclusion of early access shows back on Saturday, November 4, the total gross for Trolls Band Together increases to $31.77 million (officially, the early access grosses are being separated from the film's opening weekend gross). Trolls Band Together opened on the high end of consensus expectations, which had tended to be in the high-twenty million range to low-thirty million range heading into the weekend. Trolls Band Together didn't approach the $46.58 million start of 2016's Trolls, but hadn't been expected to do so. The second Trolls film, 2020's Trolls Word Tour, only received a very limited theatrical release as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, before famously arriving on PVOD. Trolls Band Together started out with $9.35 million on Friday (including an estimated $1.30 million from Thursday preview shows that began at 2PM), increased a healthy 31.3 percent on Saturday to gross $12.28 million and is estimated to decrease 27.0 percent on Sunday for a daily take of $8.97 million. Critical reviews for Trolls Band Together have been mixed, but the film looks to be going over far better with audiences after receiving a strong A rating on CinemaScore. The audience breakdown for Trolls Band Together skewed heavily towards female moviegoers (71 percent) and towards moviegoers over the age of 25 (59 percent). Trolls Band Together will look to hold up well throughout the holidays, though the film will face new direct competition for family audiences beginning on Wednesday from Disney's Wish. Trolls Band Together was directed by Walt Dohrn and once again features the vocal talent of Anna Kendrick and Justin Timberlake.

Internationally, Trolls Band Together grossed an estimated $6.7 million this weekend. The film has been playing for several weeks internationally and has grossed $76.3 million internationally to date. That brings the current global total for Trolls Band Together to $108.1 million. Totals for Trolls Band Together by international market through Sunday include $18.0 million in the United Kingdom, $10.0 million in France, $6.1 million in Germany, $5.6 million in Mexico, $5.1 million in Brazil and $4.4 million in Spain. Trolls Band Together will open in Australia later this month on Thursday, November 30.

At the moment it is a tie for third place this weekend between Disney and Marvel's The Marvels (in its second weekend) and Sony's Thanksgiving (in its first weekend).

After last weekend's already lackluster start, Disney and Marvel's The Marvels tumbled a deeply troubling 77.9 percent to gross an estimated $10.20 million this weekend. That represented the fourth largest second weekend decline ever for a film to open with at least $25 million (a feat which had recently been accomplished by Five Weeks at Freddy's). In addition to having a sharper second weekend decline than Five Nights at Freddy's (-76.2 percent), The Marvels also experienced sharper second weekend decline than last year's Morbius (-73.8 percent) and this year's The Flash (-72.5 percent). A number of factors came into play for this weekend's historic second weekend decline for The Marvels, including mixed critical reviews, relatively mixed word of mouth (the film received a B rating on CinemaScore), the film having lost most (but not all) of its IMAX showtimes to The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, four new wide releases having entered the marketplace this weekend and Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) films having become more front-loaded in general in recent years. With a ten-day start of just $65.02 million, The Marvels is running 25.7 percent behind the $87.52 million ten-day haul of The Flash. For what it's worth, with the benefit of Thanksgiving weekend, The Marvels is likely to stabilize more in its third weekend than The Flash stabilized in its third weekend (when it declined 65.4 percent).

The Marvels held up better internationally this weekend, but was still down a sharp 67 percent from last weekend with an estimated $19.5 million this weekend from 52 international markets. Respective totals for The Marvels stand at $96.3 million internationally and at $161.3 million globally. Estimated international totals for The Marvels by international market through Sunday include $14.7 million in China, $7.2 million in the United Kingdom, $5.2 million in Indonesia, $4.8 million in France, $4.8 million in Mexico, $4.8 million in South Korea, $3.9 million in Germany, $3.8 million in Japan, $3.5 million in Brazil, $3.2 million in Australia and $3.1 million in Italy.

Sony's Thanksgiving debuted with an estimated $10.20 million. While that was a bit below consensus expectations, the R-rated horror film was still off to a respectable start with its modest price-tag in mind. Thanksgiving was directed by Eli Roth and is an adaptation of the Thanksgiving fake-trailer that appeared in 2007's Grindhouse. Without taking into account ticket price inflation, the opening weekend performance of Thanksgiving came in just under the $11.42 million three-day start of 2010's Machete (which was also adapted from a fake-trailer in Grindhouse). Potential for Thanksgiving was likely limited at least somewhat from the sixteen year gap between the film and Grindhouse. Thanksgiving has gone over well with critics, but doesn't look to be going over quite as well with audiences after receiving a B- rating on CinemaScore (which is still a respectable rating by horror film standards). This coming week it may be a bit of a wild card when it comes to whether or not Thanksgiving sees a box office boost from the Thanksgiving holiday. Thanksgiving grossed an estimated $2.4 million from 11 select international markets this weekend, which places the early global total for the film at $12.6 million.

Universal and Blumhouse's Five Nights at Freddy's rounded out this weekend's top five with an estimated $3.50 million. That was down a sharp 61.1 percent from last weekend. While Five Nights at Freddy's has been quite front-loaded in general thus far, thanks in large part to the film's break-out debut back in October, the 24-day domestic total for the film stands at an impressive $132.61 million in the bigger picture. With a current global total of $271.8 million, this weekend also saw Five Nights at Freddy's surpass The Nun II to become the highest grossing horror film of 2023 globally. Five Nights at Freddy's grossed an estimated $9.9 million internationally this weekend, which brings the film's international total to $139.2 million.

Further down on this weekend's box office chart, Focus's The Holdovers grossed an estimated $2.70 million upon expanding to wide release in 1,478 locations, while Disney and Searchlight's Next Goal Wins followed closely behind with an estimated debut of $2.50 million from 2,240 locations. Despite playing in significantly less locations this weekend and also having played in semi-wide release last weekend, the Alexander Payne directed The Holdovers was able to outpace the Taika Waititi directed Next Goal Wins due in part to having far better critical reviews. With that said, The Holdovers also lost some momentum this weekend by declining 16.2 percent, despite the film's location count nearly doubling from last weekend. The Holdovers has grossed an estimated $8.36 million to date domestically and should continue to have a presence at the box office throughout the holidays and awards season. Next Goal Wins looks to be going over better with audiences than it has with critics after receiving a solid B+ rating on CinemaScore, but after this weekend's modest start the film will have trouble holding onto locations and showtimes after next weekend.

Read more at BoxOfficeReport.com