Weekend Estimates Update - November 24th, 2023 to November 26th, 2023:

Lionsgate's The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes pulled off an upset victory at the Thanksgiving weekend box office thanks in part to a better than expected hold and to the softer than expected start of Disney's Wish. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes took in an estimated $28.82 million over the three-day weekend and an estimated $42.00 million over the extended five-day Thanksgiving holiday frame. The film's second weekend decline of just 35.4 percent, easily represented the best second weekend percentage hold ever for a film in The Hunger Games franchise. The four previous The Hunger Games films experienced second weekend declines ranging from 49 percent to 62 percent, though it should also be reminded that all four previous films opened much higher than The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes did. Strong word of mouth clearly looks to be helping bring in fans of The Hunger Games franchise who may have originally been on the fence about watching The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes in theatres. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes is on the verge of surpassing the $100 million domestic mark with a ten-day gross of $98.37 million. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes was also helped out this weekend from holding onto IMAX showtimes, as IMAX screens this weekend were split between The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes and Napoleon. Over the five day-frame, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes grossed an estimated $2.2 million from domestic IMAX screens, which brings the domestic IIMAX total for the film to $6.7 million.

Internationally, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes grossed an estimated $26.2 million this weekend. That brings the film's international total to $98.9 million and current global haul to $197.3 million. Globally, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes is performing nicely with the film's price-tag in mind. With an estimated $4.3 million thus far from international IMAX screens, the global IMAX haul for The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes stands at $11.0 million.

While it still opened towards the higher end of consensus expectations, Sony and Apple's Napoleon also unexpectedly finished ahead of Wish this weekend. The Ridley Scott directed Napoleon, which stars Joaquin Phoenix and Vanessa Kirby, debuted in second place with respective estimated three-day weekend and five-day holiday grosses of $20.40 million and $32.50 million. Napoleon opened 47.6 percent ahead of the $22.01 million five-day Thanksgiving weekend start of fellow Ridley Scott directed film House of Gucci back in 2021, though it should be noted that Napoleon was significantly more expensive than House of Gucci was. Although the Apple Studios produced Napoleon carried a very large price-tag, similarly to Apple's recent Killers of the Flower Moon, box office expectations for Napoleon weren't anywhere near as high as they typically would be for a film of its cost. Napoleon grossed an estimated $5.3 million from international IMAX screens over the holiday frame. That represented 16.3 percent of the film's overall domestic start, which was especially impressive given that (as mentioned) Napoleon split IMAX screens with The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes this weekend. With a five-day to three-day weekend ratio of 1.59 to 1, Napoleon did display initial front-loading this weekend. The film's modest B- rating on CinemaScore also suggests that word of mouth is mixed for Napoleon; similar to the mixed critical reviews for the film.

Internationally, Napoleon started out with an estimated $46.3 million from 56 international markets. That places the global launch for the film at $78.8 million. Estimated debuts for Napoleon by international market included $6.6 million in the United Kingdom, $6.5 million in Mexico, $5.6 million in France, $3.4 million in Germany, $3.3 million in Spain, $3.1 million in Italy, $2.6 million in Australia, $1.6 million in the Netherlands, $1.2 million in Belgium and $1.2 million in Brazil. Napoleon started out with an estimated $3.7 million from international IMAX screens, which places the film's global IMAX launch at $9.0 million. Napoleon will open in China and Japan this coming Friday (December 1) and in South Korea the following Wednesday (December 6).

Meanwhile, Disney's Wish was off to a lackluster start with respective estimated three-day weekend and five-day holiday grosses of $19.50 million and $31.70 million. Heading into the extended holiday frame, consensus five-day expectations for Wish had tended to range from $45 million to $55 million. The expensive Wish had been expected to outpace the $40.57 million five-day Thanksgiving weekend start of Disney's Encanto two years ago, but ultimately opened 21.9 percent lower than Encanto for the five-day frame. Wish was at least able to open 68.1 percent ahead of the $18.86 million five-day Thanksgiving weekend start of last year's Strange World. Disney has clearly had struggles at the box office throughout 2023 and at least some of that looks to be the result of potential theatrical audiences waiting more and more for Disney releases to arrive on streaming via Disney+. With that said, it also appears that at the end of the day Wish (which was released in part as a celebration of the 100 year anniversary of Walt Disney Studios) just wasn't that appealing to family audiences. Direct competition from Trolls Band Together and mixed critical reviews for Wish didn't help matters either this weekend. With a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore Wish looks to be going better with audiences than it has with critics, though at the same time, Wish displayed significant initial front-loading over the holiday frame with a five-day to three-day weekend ratio of 1.63 to 1. Wish being more front-loaded than Napoleon over the holiday frame was especially alarming (and unexpected) for Wish, given that historically family films tend to be more back-loaded towards the three-day weekend portion of the five-day Thanksgiving holiday frame, than non-family films. Wish was directed by Chris Buck and Fawn Veerasunthorn, and features the vocal talent of Ariana DeBose, Chris Pine and Alan Tudyk.

Internationally, Wish started out with an estimated $17.3 million from 27 select international markets. That places the global start for Wish at $49.0 million. Estimated debuts for Wish by international market included $3.5 million in China, $3.0 million in the United Kingdom, $2.1 million in Mexico and $1.5 million in Spain. Wish only opened in a handful of larger international markets this weekend and will open in additional markets all the way through early January. This coming week will see Wish debut in France and Germany.

Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Trolls Band Together ended up fairly close to Wish this weekend with respective fourth place estimated three-day weekend and five-day holiday grosses of $17.52 million and $25.30 million. Over the three-day frame, Trolls Band Together was down a very solid 41.6 percent from last weekend's debut. Strong word of mouth (Trolls Band Together received an A rating on CinemaScore) and the underperformance of Wish both looked to have helped out Trolls Band Together this weekend. After ten days of release, Trolls Band Together has grossed $64.47 million domestically. The box office performance of Trolls Band Together highlights Universal's continued strength at the box office with animated films, across both DreamWorks Animation and Illumination. Internationally, Trolls Band Together added an estimated $3.1 million this weekend from 67 international markets. Respective totals for the film stand at $81.4 million internationally and at $145.8 million globally. This Thursday (November 30) Trolls Band Together will open in Australia.

Sony's Thanksgiving rounded out this weekend's top five with respective estimated three-day weekend and five-day holiday grosses of $7.15 million and $11.13 million. The R-rated horror film held up very nicely this weekend, as the film's 3-day performance was down just 30.6 percent from last weekend. Strong critical reviews, solid word of mouth and the Thanksgiving holiday frame all look to have helped out Thanksgiving this weekend. Whether or not Thanksgiving is able to hold up well after Thanksgiving weekend remains to be seen, but as for now, the modestly budgeted film has grossed a solid $24.19 million through ten days. Internationally, Thanksgiving grossed an estimated $1.5 million this weekend from 16 select international markets. That brings the film's early international total to $4.9 million and current global haul to $29.1 million. This coming week Thanksgiving will open in a number of new international markets, including Belgium and France on Wednesday (November 29) and Mexico and the Netherlands on Thursday (November 30).

Disney's The Marvels followed in sixth place with respective estimated three-day weekend and five-day holiday grosses of $6.40 million and $9.20 million. After last weekend's historic second weekend decline, The Marvels was able to stabilize this weekend by declining 36.8 percent, especially since The Marvels was also playing in 960 fewer locations this weekend than last weekend. With that said, the 17-day domestic total for The Marvels is still a very disappointing $76.85 million. Prior to the release of The Marvels, the lowest grossing Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) films domestically had been 2008's The Incredible Hulk ($134.81 million) and 2021's Eternals ($164.87 million). Internationally, The Marvels grossed an estimated $7.9 million this weekend from 52 international markets. That brings the film's international total to $110.2 million and current global total to just $187.1 million.

Living up to its name, Focus's The Holdovers held up very nicely this weekend to place in seventh with respective estimated three-day weekend and five-day holiday grosses of $2.75 million and $3.75 million. After a so-so expansion into wide release last weekend (when the film declined 16.3 percent upon adding 700 locations), The Holdovers re-established momentum this weekend by increasing 2.0 percent from last weekend (while adding just 123 locations this time around, for a total of 1,601 locations). It may have just taken an extra week for word of mouth to start to build more for The Holdovers in newer areas playing the film, and the film's Christmas-time setting also likely helped its performance over Thanksgiving weekend as well. Through 31 days of release, the total domestic gross for the critically acclaimed Alexander Payne directed The Holdovers stands at a promising $12.89 million.

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