Weekend Estimates Update - October 6th, 2023 to October 8st, 2023:

Weekend Estimates Update:

Universal and Blumhouse's The Exorcist: Believer debuted in first place this weekend with an estimated $27.20 million. That was on the lower end of consensus expectations, which were in the high-twenty million range to the mid-thirty million range heading into the weekend. With regard to the cost of the film, this weekend's results are a mixed bag, as on one hand, The Exorcist: Believer performed well with its modest production budget in mind, but on the other hand, the film's start left a lot to be desired given the enormous amount Universal paid for the rights to the franchise. While the original The Exorcist film is among the highest grossing films of all-time when adjusting for ticket price inflation, follow-up films in the series over the years haven't been able to come close to matching the box office performance of The Exoricst and that clearly continued with The Exorcist: Believer this weekend. The Exorcist: Believer opened 50.7 percent ahead of the $18.05 million start of 2004's Exorcist: The Beginning, but obviously The Exorcist: Believer has the advantage of nearly 20 years of ticket price inflation in the comparison between the two. The Exorcist: Believer opened 16.6 percent below the recent $32.60 million start of The Nun II. The Exorcist: Believer was directed by David Gordon Green and stars Leslie Odom Jr., Ann Dowd, Jennifer Nettles, Norbert Leo Butz, Lidya Jewett, Olivia Marcum and Ellen Burstyn.

The Exorcist: Believer started out with $11.84 million on Friday (which included an estimated $2.85 million from Thursday preview shows that began at 5PM), declined 23.6 percent on Saturday to gross $9.04 million and is estimated to decrease 30.1 percent on Sunday to take in $6.32 million. Especially poor critical reviews look to have already started negatively affecting the box office performance of The Exorcist: Believer and the film doesn't look to be going all that much better with audiences after receiving a lackluster C rating on CinemaScore (though it should be reminded that horror films tend to poll lower in general on CinemaScore). The Exorcist: Believer grossed an estimated $2.2 million from domestic IMAX screens this weekend, which represented 8.1 percent of this weekend's overall domestic gross.

Internationally, The Exorcist: Believer started out modestly with an estimated $17.9 million from 52 international markets. That places the film's global launch at $45.1 million. Estimated debuts for The Exorcist: Believer by international market included $4.0 million in Mexico, $2.1 million in the United Kingdom, $1.2 million in Italy, $1.0 million in Spain, $0.9 million in Germany, $0.9 million in Indonesia, $0.8 million in Australia and $0.7 million in India. The Exorcist: Believer will open in France this coming Wednesday (October 11) and in Brazil the following day (October 12), before opening in South Korea the following Wednesday (October 18). The Exorcist: Believer grossed an estimated $0.8 million from international IMAX screens this weekend, for a global IMAX launch of $3.0 million.

Paramount's PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie placed in second with an estimated $11.75 million. That was a 48.4 percent decline from last weekend, which represented a slightly better second weekend hold than that of 2021's PAW Patrol: The Movie, which declined a similar 49.4 percent to gross $6.66 million in its second weekend. In the bigger picture, with a healthy ten-day start of $38.87 million, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie has already nearly matched the $40.13 million final domestic gross of PAW Patrol: The Movie. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was fairly front-loaded for a family film, but going forward PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie may be able to hold up better than its predecessor did, thanks in part to strong word of mouth, opening exclusively in theatres this time around and the lack of any new animated films opening in wide release this October. Internationally, PAW Patrol: The Movie grossed an estimated $14.0 million this weekend from 57 international markets. Respective totals stand a $48.2 million internationally and at $87.1 million globally. Estimated totals for PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie by international market through Sunday include $13.2 million in China, $5.2 million in Germany, $4.5 million in Mexico, $4.1 million in Australia and $1.6 million in Brazil.

Lionsgate's Saw X placed in third with an estimated $8.15 million. The R-rated horror sequel declined 55.5 percent from last weekend, which while a sizable decline, also represented a very respectable second weekend hold for a Saw film (which have typically been very front-loaded towards opening weekend in the past). In comparison, 2017's Jigsaw declined 60.6 percent in its second weekend to gross $6.56 million (though it should be noted that the Halloween holiday took place before the second weekend of Jigsaw). Saw X also held up reasonably well given the new competition for horror fans from The Exorcist: Believer this weekend, though at the same time it also appears that the poor critical reception to The Exorcist: Believer may not be giving any real boost to the much better reviewed Saw X, at least not yet. With a very solid ten-day start of $32.55 million (especially with the film's modest price-tag in mind), Saw X is running 13.5 percent ahead of the $28.69 million ten-day gross of Jigsaw, and should continue to build its percentage lead over Jigsaw going forward. Saw X is also already approaching the $38.05 million final domestic gross of Jigsaw (and has already zoomed past the $23.22 million final domestic gross of 2021's Spiral).

Disney, 20th Century and New Regency's The Creator took fourth place with an estimated $6.10 million. The Creator declined a sharp 56.7 percent from last weekend. While The Creator didn't have a strong second weekend hold, the sci-fi film also didn't completely collapse this weekend, especially given that The Creator lost most (but not all) of its IMAX showtimes to The Exorcist: Believer this weekend. The Creator has grossed $24.93 million through ten days, which is below expectations and is very underwhelming with the film's price-tag in mind. The Creator is running 29.6 percent behind the $35.40 million ten-day start of fellow sci-fi film (and Disney / 20th Century release) Ad Astra back in September of 2019 (Ad Astra declined 47.3 percent in its second weekend to gross $10.01 million, though that film took a big hit from the release of Joker the following weekend). Internationally, The Creator grossed an estimated $10.8 million from 50 international markets this weekend, including a debut of $1.4 million in South Korea. Respective totals for The Creator stand at $36.9 million internationally and at $61.8 million globally. Additional totals for The Creator by international market through Sunday include $5.2 million in the United Kingdom, $3.6 million in France, $2.9 million in Germany, $2.2 million in Australia, $2.0 million in Spain, $1.6 million in Mexico and $1.3 million in Hong Kong.

Fathom Events and Tread Lively's The Blind continued to exceed expectations by rounding out this weekend's top five with an estimated $3.13 million. The Blind was down only 28.3 percent from last weekend's three-day opening weekend and was able to achieve that hold while also playing in a significant 401 fewer locations this weekend than last weekend (for a total of 1,314 locations this weekend). Releases from Fathom Events typically experience very sharp second weekend declines, but The Blind was clearly able to buck that trend this weekend. Through Sunday, the eleven-day total for The Blind stands at $10.49 million. That already ranks The Blind among the higher grossing releases ever for Fathom Events.

Meanwhile, the 30th anniversary re-issue of Disney's Hocus Pocus started out in tenth place with an estimated $1.54 million. That was below the $1.93 million grossed by Hocus Pocus during the first weekend of its previous re-issue back in October of 2020. Hocus Pocus didn't open as wide this time around; 1,430 locations this weekend in comparison to 2,570 locations in 2020, but on the other hand the 2020 re-issue of Hocus Pocus occurred during the re-opening phase of domestic theatres.

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