Box Office Report: Taylor Tops Marty

Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.

Weekend Estimates Update - October 20th, 2023 to October 22nd, 2023:

AMC Theatres Distribution's release of Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film took in an estimated $31.0 million this weekend to lead the box office for a second consecutive frame. While Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film had been widely expected to remain in first place this weekend, the concert film ultimately had a more comfortable lead this weekend over runner-up Killers of the Flower Moon than had been expected. Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film declined a very sharp 66.6 percent from last weekend's debut, but that also represented a reasonable second weekend decline for a high-profile concert film, as high-profile concert films typically experience sharp second weekend declines. During the past week, Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film didn't screen from Monday through Wednesday. The concert film began playing again on Thursday, which resulted in a daily gross of $5.98 million. With the inclusion of Thursday's performance, Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film had a second weekend estimated four-day "weekend event" gross of $36.98 million. The lack of screenings from Monday through Wednesday no doubt helped the second weekend hold of the concert film. Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film was also helped out this weekend by strong word of mouth, as the concert film received a perfect A+ rating on CinemaScore (which should also lead to repeat business). Through Sunday, Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film has grossed an estimated $129.79 million domestically (over seven days of release). An update on the second weekend international performance of Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film will be available on Monday.

Paramount and Apple's Killers of the Flower Moon debuted in second place with an estimated $23.0 million. That was towards the lower end of consensus expectations, which where anywhere from $20 million to the low $30 million range heading into the weekend. Killers of the Flower Moon wasn't off to a great start this weekend with the film's expensive price-tag in mind, but with that said, as a prestige picture with the hope of being a major awards season contender (even more so having been produced by a major streaming company), obviously box office expectations for Killers of the Flower Moon are lower than they typically would be for a more mainstream film of its cost. Killers of the Flower Moon was directed by Martin Scorsese and stars Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro and Lily Gladstone. With the exception of 2010's Shutter Island, the other previous collaborations between Scorsese and DiCaprio (2002's Gangs of New York, 2004's The Aviator, 2006's The Departed and 2013's The Wolf of Wall Street) have all had back-loaded runs at the box office. With the aid of strong critical reviews, apparent strong word of mouth (the film received a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore) and the film likely being a major awards season contender, there is a good possibility that Killers of the Flower Moon could also hold up very well in the weeks ahead. The especially long 206-minute run-time of Killers of the Flower Moon could also lead to additional built-in back-loading. At the same time, the film's estimated opening weekend to previews gross ratio of 8.85 to 1 does indicate some relative initial front-loading with all factors considered and is slightly concerning going forward.
Internationally, Killers of the Flower Moon started out with an estimated $21.0 million from 63 international markets. That places the global launch for the film at $44.0 million. Estimated debuts for Killers of the Flower Moon by international market included $3.0 million in the United Kingdom, $2.6 million in France, $1.6 million in Germany, $1.4 million in Australia and $1.3 million in Spain.

Universal and Blumhouse's The Exorcist: Believer placed in a distant third with an estimated $5.60 million. That was down a sizable 49.0 percent from last weekend. Given that The Exorcist: Believer stabilized less than expected this weekend, it appears that last weekend's stronger than expected second weekend hold was largely due to last Friday being Friday the 13th (Lionsgate's Saw X also declined more than expected this weekend as well). The Exorcist: Believer passed the $50 million domestic mark this weekend and has grossed $54.20 million through 17 days. Next weekend will be interesting for The Exorcist: Believer, as on the one hand next weekend will serve as Halloween weekend at the box office, but on the other hand, The Exorcist: Believer will face major new competition for horror fans from fellow Universal and Blumhouse film Five Nights at Freddy's, which is expected to have significant break-out potential upon opening day-and-date theatrically and via streaming on Peacock.

The Exorcist: Believer grossed an estimated $8.2 million internationally this weekend from 80 international markets. That brings the film's international total to $53.4 million and current global haul to $107.6 million. This weekend saw The Exorcist: Believer debut with $0.5 million in South Korea. Additional totals for The Exorcist: Believer by international market through Sunday include $8.2 million in Mexico, $5.7 million in the United Kingdom, $3.2 million in France, $3.1 million in Spain, $2.9 million in Italy, $2.4 million in Germany, $2.2 million in Brazil and $1.8 million in Australia.

Paramount's PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie grossed an estimated $4.45 million to place in fourth. That represented a solid 35.4 percent decline from last weekend. With a healthy 24-day domestic total of $56.06 million, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie is running an impressive 61.5 percent ahead of the $34.70 million 24-day gross of 2021's PAW Patrol: The Movie (which declined 42.6 percent in its fourth weekend to gross $2.30 million). With a current international total of $92.3 million, the global total for PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie stands at $148.4 million. The film's global total has already surpassed the $144.3 million global final total gross of PAW Patrol: The Movie.

In a surprisingly strong performance, Disney's 30th Anniversary re-issue of The Nightmare Before Christmas started out in fifth place with an estimated $4.10 million. The Nightmare Before Christmas was playing in a relatively modest 1,650 locations this weekend, which gave the classic stop-motion animated film a very solid per-location average of $2,485 for the frame. The re-issue of The Nightmare Before Christmas opened an impressive 154.7 percent higher than the $1.61 million start of the 30th Anniversary re-issue of Disney's Hocus Pocus two weeks ago. This weekend's performance for The Nightmare Before Christmas was also 209.9 percent higher than the estimated $1.32 million start of the last re-issue of The Nightmare Before Christmas, which took place in October of 2021, shortly after the re-opening of domestic theatres during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Lionsgate's Saw X followed in sixth place with an estimated $3.59 million. That represented a 36.9 percent decline from last weekend, which was a very solid hold, especially since last weekend's performance clearly received a boost from Friday the 13th. With a 24-day domestic total of $47.23 million, Saw X is quickly approaching the $50 million domestic mark. Saw X is running 29.5 percent ahead of the $36.46 million 24-day gross of 2017's Jigsaw and will continue to increase the percentage gap between the two films, as Jigsaw declined 68.4 percent in its fourth weekend to gross $1.08 million.

In international box office news, Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Trolls Band Together grossed an estimated $14.3 million from 26 select international markets. That brings the early international total for Trolls Band Together to an estimated $16.0 million. Estimated debuts by international market for Trolls Band Together this weekend included $4.0 million in the United Kingdom, $2.6 million in Brazil, $1.7 million in France, $1.6 million in Germany & $1.2 million in the Netherlands. This coming week Trolls Band Together will open in Mexico on Thursday (October 26) and in Spain on Friday (October 27). Trolls Band Together will open domestically on November 17.

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