Box Office Predictions: ‘Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse’ Returns To The Throne
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: June 23rd - June 25th, 2023
After the softer than expected debuts of both Warner Bros.'s The Flash and Disney's Elemental last weekend, Sony's Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will have a very good chance of returning to first place at the domestic box office this weekend. On Wednesday, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse grossed $3.82 million, which moved the film back into first place at the daily box office. While Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse declined a sizable 51.4 percent last weekend to place in third with $27.001 million, with no new direct competition to deal with this weekend and the film holding onto a far higher percentage of its showtimes per location this weekend than it did last weekend, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse should experience a much stronger percentage hold this weekend. Look for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse to decline just 25.9 percent this weekend to gross $20.0 million, which will likely be good enough for first place for the frame. That would also move Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse well past the $300 million domestic mark.
Disney and Pixar's Elemental is coming off of respective three-day and four-day second place debuts of $29.60 million and $34.91 million. While Elemental opened below already scaled back expectations last weekend, with the possible exception of Saturday, the film has been displaying very encouraging initial holding power thus far. And on Wednesday, Elemental grossed $3.56 million to move ahead of The Flash to remain in second place at the daily box office. Elemental also received a strong A rating on CinemaScore, which is another positive early sign for the film going forward. In general, Pixar films do tend to experience significant second weekend percentage declines; though non-sequels from Pixar tend to have much better second weekend holds than sequels. Elemental will also likely have inflated midweek summer business, due in part to skewing heavily towards both female moviegoers and family audiences. Elemental could have a very nice second weekend hold by declining 37.8 percent to remain in second place with $18.4 million.
This weekend sees the wide release of Sony's No Hard Feelings. The R-rated comedy was directed by Gene Stupnitsky and stars Jennifer Lawrence and Andrew Barth Feldman. No Hard Feelings is being released in 3,208 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. Critical reviews for No Hard Feelings have been mixed, but the film has the potential of being able to go over better with audiences than it has with critics. In the past, Lawrence has fairly consistently been able to help open films in the teen millions range (including 2013's American Hustle, 2015's Joy, 2016's Passengers and 2018's Red Sparrow), though it has been a lengthy five years since the release of Red Sparrow (which debuted with $16.85 million). No Hard Feelings could also get a boost from serving as an alternative choice to this summer's action-adventure and family fare. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that No Hard Feelings will debut in third place this weekend with $16.0 million; with strong holding power beyond this weekend being quite possible for the film.
Meanwhile, it looks like it's going to be a rough second weekend for Warner Bros.'s The Flash. Last weekend The Flash debuted in first place with respective three-day and four-day starts of $55.04 million and $61.20 million. But just as alarming (if not more so) than the film's grosses thus far, is just how front-loaded The Flash has been out of the gate. On Wednesday, The Flash declined a sharp 41.6 percent from Tuesday to fall to third place for the day with $3.08 million. The Flash received a B rating on CinemaScore, and while in general that is often a solid rating, it's a low rating when it comes to the lofty CinemaScore standards of high-profile comic book based films. In addition to mixed word of mouth, at this point, there is also clearly a notable level of online backlash against The Flash (for multiple reasons), with a good portion of the backlash coming from moviegoers with no desire to see the film anytime soon. There is also a recent history of other DCEU films experiencing very sharp second weekend declines, as this past March Shazam! Fury of the Gods declined 69.0 percent to gross $9.34 million in its second weekend, while back in August of 2021 even the better received The Suicide Squad decreased 71.5 percent in its second weekend to gross $7.47 million. With all factors considered, it appears highly likely that The Flash will experience a very sharp second weekend percentage decline this weekend. One factor that will help The Flash from potentially experiencing an even sharper decline this weekend is that the film will be holding onto its IMAX screens. The Flash could tumble 72.0 percent this weekend to land in fourth place with $15.4 million.
As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Paramount's Transformers: Rise of the Beasts declined 66.1 percent last weekend to place in fourth with $20.69 million, while Disney's The Little Mermaid decreased 52.3 percent to follow in fifth with $11.05 million. Both films should hold up significantly better this weekend. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts could decline a respectable 45.9 percent to round out this weekend's top five with $11.2 million. The Little Mermaid, which didn't really experience a Father's Day boost this past Sunday, could ease by just 25.8 percent this weekend to place in seventh with $8.2 million.
Upon expanding to 1,675 locations this weekend, Focus's Asteroid City could find itself in between Transformers: Rise of the Beasts and The Little Mermaid for sixth place. Last weekend the Wes Anderson directed film featuring an ensemble cast was off to a terrific platform launch with respective three-day and four-day grosses of $0.853 million and $1.005 million, from 6 locations in New York and Los Angeles. That represented the strongest platform launch for any platform release since the re-opening of domestic theatres back in August of 2020. Asteroid City will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. On the average, critical reviews for Asteroid City have been good, but not great. The largest unadjusted single weekend gross ever for a Wes Anderson directed film is the $8.54 million grossed by The Grand Budapest Hotel upon expanding to 977 locations in its fourth frame back in March of 2014. With Asteroid City having a quicker and larger expansion this weekend, the film could deliver the largest unadjusted single weekend gross ever for a film directed by Anderson. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a $9.3 million gross for Asteroid City this weekend.
Read more at BoxOfficeReport.com.
