Box Office Predictions: ‘Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One’ To Leap Over The Competition
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: July 14th, 2023 to July 16th, 2023
Wednesday Afternoon Update:
Paramount's Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One started out with an estimated $7.0 million from Tuesday preview shows that began early at 2PM. That figure doesn't include grosses for select Early Access shows for the film prior to Tuesday.
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One represents the seventh installment in the Mission: Impossible franchise. The Tom Cruise led sequel was directed by Christopher McQuarrie (who also directed 2015's Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation and 2018's Mission: Impossible – Fallout) and also features Hayley Atwell, Ving Rhames, Simon Pegg, Rebecca Ferguson, Vanessa Kirby and Henry Czerny. The film will be playing in 4,049 locations beginning on Wednesday and will also be playing on IMAX screens. On the average, critical reviews for Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One have been exceptional. There appears to be a bit more pre-release excitement for Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One than there was for either Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation or Mission: Impossible – Fallout, though some of that may also be a result of the film potentially being more front-loaded towards opening week, due in part to Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One opening the week before Warner Bros.'s Barbie and Universal's Oppenheimer arrive in theatres. The break-out performance of last year's Top Gun: Maverick could also give an additional box office boost to Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One this summer (though likely not a huge one).
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation had a three-day opening weekend of $55.52 million and grossed $69.54 million in its first five days, while Mission: Impossible – Fallout had a three-day opening weekend of $61.24 million and grossed $77.53 million in its first five days (both of those films opened on a Friday). Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One could prove to be relatively weekend heavy out of the gate this week, due in part to the film's 163-minute run-time, in part to the film's audience likely skewing significantly older and in part to potentially strong initial word of mouth. Earlier today, prior to the release of the film's Tuesday preview gross, BoxOfficeReport predicted that Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One would debut with $62.0 million over the three-day weekend and $92.0 million over the film's first five days (including all preview grosses).
Last week saw Angel Studios's Sound of Freedom break out with $19.68 million over the weekend and $41.67 million over the film's first six days (including previews). On Monday Sound of Freedom moved into first place at the daily box office with $4.00 million and the film technically remained in first place on Tuesday with $3.83 million (with preview grosses for Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One officially being counted towards Wednesday's opening day performance). In addition to holding up very well thus far (especially for a pre-sales heavy film), the film's perfect A+ rating on CinemaScore also points towards word of mouth being extremely strong for Sound of Freedom. Due in part to how well the film performed last weekend with its average showtimes per location in mind, Sound of Freedom will also benefit this weekend from holding onto a very high percentage of its showtimes per location from last weekend. Last weekend's three-day opening weekend figure having been deflated by the midweek opening is another factor that will help the second weekend hold for Sound of Freedom. Look for Sound of Freedom to take second place this weekend with $15.2 million, which would represent a decline of only 22.8 percent from last weekend.
Sony and Blumhouse's Insidious: The Red Door also had a break-out performance of its own last weekend with a first place debut of $33.01 million. With a C+ CinemaScore rating, word of mouth looks to be mixed for Insidious: The Red Door and the film has also displayed initial front-loading thus far. At the same time, similar to Sound of Freedom, Insidious: The Red Door looks to be holding onto a fairly high percentage of its average showtimes per location this weekend, as Insidious: The Red Door is also coming off of an especially strong performance with the film's average amount of showtimes in mind. Insidious: The Red Door could also get a bit of a boost this weekend from serving as an alternative choice to the weekend's other top films. Back in January of 2018, Insidious: The Last Key declined 58.0 percent in its second weekend to gross $12.42 million. A similar 58.2 percent decrease would transfer into $13.8 million for Insidious: The Red Door this weekend.
Disney and Lucasfilm's Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is coming off of a second weekend performance which saw the film decline a sizable 54.6 percent to place in second with $27.42 million. With Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny losing a sizable percentage of its average showtimes per location this weekend, as well as losing IMAX screens to Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, it will be difficult for the Dial of Destiny to stabilize much this weekend. Look for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny to decline a sizable 50.8 percent to place in fourth with $13.5 million.
Fellow Disney release Elemental held up far better last weekend by declining a slim 17.3 percent to place in fourth with $10.03 million. The well-received Pixar film is likely to hold up very well once again this weekend, thanks in part to continued strong word of mouth, to the film holding onto a high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend and in part to potentially getting an added boost this weekend from moviegoers wanting to catch Elemental (or catch it again) before Barbie, and to a lesser extent Oppenheimer arrive in theatres next week. Elemental could decline a slim 15.3 percent to round out this weekend's top five with $8.5 million.
Sony's Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will also likely continue to hold up well this weekend. After declining 33.1 percent last weekend to gross $8.03 million, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse could decrease just 26.5 percent this weekend to place in sixth with $5.9 million. With $360.45 million through Tuesday, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is currently this summer's highest grossing release domestically.
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