Weekend Box Office Predictions: June 30th - July 2nd, 2023

Upon arriving in theatres this weekend, Disney and Lucasfilm's Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is set to lead the extended five-day Independence Day holiday frame with ease. However, the expensive fifth installment of the Indiana Jones franchise isn't expected to come anywhere close to matching the $100.14 million opening weekend and $151.92 million five-day start of 2008's Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull back in May of 2008. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny sees the return of Harrison Ford as Indiana Jones one last time, also sees the return of John Rhys-Davies and features new cast members Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Antonio Banderas, Toby Jones and Mads Mikkelsen. This time around James Mangold has taken the reins as director from Steven Spielberg. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is opening in a ultra-wide 4,600 locations this weekend (due in part to the film likely having stronger appeal in more rural areas), will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. On the average, critical reviews for the film have been mixed, but more so positive than negative.

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny appears to be in a relatively tough spot, in that many older fans of the series weren't really craving another Indiana Jones film following the mixed reception to Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and at the same time there doesn't appear to be enough excitement about the film among teens and young adults to generate new fans of the series. With that said, there will still be a sizable segment of the Indiana Jones fanbase ready to take the adventure with Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny this weekend, and the film's older audience and the five-day holiday frame could lead to some relative initial back-loading for a high-profile sequel. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and five-day starts of $63.0 million and $85.0 million for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

This past weekend Sony's Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Disney and Pixar's Elemental were in a very close race for first place, with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse ultimately taking first with $19.00 million to $18.44 million for Elemental. The two well-received computer animated films will likely remain very close to one another this weekend in a race for second place, as both Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Elemental should continue to hold up well. In having the slightly larger performance last weekend and in looking to hold onto a higher percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will likely continue to have the slight edge over Elemental this weekend. A 32.6 percent decline would give Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $12.8 million over the three-day frame, while a very similar 33.3 percent decrease would transfer into $12.3 million for Elemental over the three-day weekend. The two films could find themselves even closer over the five-day frame, with respective potential five-day grosses of $18.8 million for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and $18.6 million for Elemental.

This weekend also sees the release of Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken. The computer animated film was directed by Kirk DeMicco and features a vocal cast that includes Lana Condor, Toni Collette, Annie Murphy, Colman Domingo and Jane Fonda. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken is playing in 3,400 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. As with Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, on the average critical reviews for Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken have been mixed, but more so positive than negative. Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be much interest in Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken among family audiences and the film being released while Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Elemental and The Little Mermaid are all still in the marketplace, won't help matters either. Back in June of 2021, fellow DreamWorks Animation film Spirit Untamed had a three-day opening weekend of just $6.10 million. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken could start out with a slightly larger three-day opening of $7.7 million this weekend. That would likely place Ruby Gillman in fifth place over the three-day frame, just behind Sony's No Hard Feelings and just ahead of Paramount's Transformers: Rise of the Beasts. Over the five-day holiday frame, Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken could be headed for an extended debut of $10.7 million.

As for Sony's No Hard Feelings and Paramount's Transformers: Rise of the Beasts; after debuting with $15.00 million last weekend, the fairly well-received No Hard Feelings could decline a respectable 47.3 percent over the three-day frame to place in fourth with $7.9 million. And after declining 43.2 percent to gross $11.75 million last weekend, the Independence Day frame could help Transformers: Rise of the Beasts further stabilize this weekend by decreasing a solid 37.9 percent to place in sixth with $7.3 million. Over the extended five-day holiday frame, No Hard Feelings could be in store for $11.9 million, while Transformers: Rise of the Beasts could register $10.6 million.

Read more at BoxOfficeReport.com.