Box Office Report: ‘Gran Turismo’ And ‘Barbie’ Neck And Neck

Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.

Weekend Estimates Update - August 25th, 2023 to August 27th, 2023:

It indeed turned out to be a close race for first place at the domestic box office this weekend between Sony's Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story and Warner Bros.'s Barbie, as the two films are currently separated by just $200,000 based on studio estimates, with Gran Turismo currently having the edge. And with National Cinema Day (and $4 movie tickets) falling today (Sunday), there is a bit more uncertainty that usual (percentage wise) when it comes to this weekend's estimates for Sunday.

Sony's Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story debuted with an estimated $17.30 million this weekend. That was on the very high end of consensus expectations, which had ranged anywhere from $10 million to the higher teen millions heading into the weekend. It should also be mentioned that the weekend (and Friday) figure for Gran Turismo includes several days of select early access screenings prior to the film's traditional Thursday preview shows. While an official figure for the early access screenings hasn't been released, unofficial industry estimates place that figure in the neighborhood of $4 million. Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story was far less expensive than a typical high-profile summer release, so the film was also off to a respectable start this weekend with its price-tag in mind. Gran Turismo played on domestic IMAX screens this weekend, but split them with Universal's Oppenheimer and to a lesser extent Warner Bros.'s Blue Beetle. The estimated domestic IMAX weekend take for Gran Turismo was $1.1 million (which places the film's global IMAX total at $2.3 million). Gran Turismo was directed by Neill Blomkamp and stars Archie Madekwe, David Harbour and Orlando Bloom. In addition to being based on a true story, Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story is also based on the Gran Turismo PlayStation video game series.

Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story started out with $8.65 million on Friday (which included the mentioned early access shows and an estimated $1.4 million from Thursday preview shows that began at 2PM), declined 51.4 percent on Saturday to gross $4.20 million and is estimated to increase 6.0 percent on National Cinema Day Sunday to gross $4.45 million. Critical reviews for Gran Turismo have been mixed, but the film looks to be going over significantly better with audiences after receiving a strong A rating on CinemaScore. With that said, it will be difficult for Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story not to experience some initial front-loading due to the high percentage of the film's opening weekend gross that came from its collective previews. Internationally, Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story grossed an estimated $11.0 million this weekend from 61 international markets. This weekend saw the film debut with $2.2 million in Mexico, $0.65 million in Taiwan, $0.60 million in Brazil and $0.53 million in Indonesia. Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story is in its third week of international release; with current respective totals for the film standing at $36.5 million internationally and $53.8 million globally.

Warner Bros.'s Barbie grossed an estimated $17.10 million. That represented a slim decline of 18.7 percent from last weekend. In addition to continuing to benefit from terrific word of mouth, it looks like Barbie will benefit significantly from National Cinema Day, as the film is estimated to increase 44.9 percent from Saturday to take in $7.75 million on Sunday. Had pre-Thursday early access shows for Gran Turismo not been counted towards its opening weekend performance, Barbie would have been this weekend's top film. Regardless of what film officially ends up in first place this weekend, Barbie had an excellent hold and is now on the verge of reaching the $600 million domestic mark with 38-day domestic gross of $594.80 million. Before too much longer, Barbie will also be surpassing the $608.58 million final domestic gross of 2018's Incredibles 2 to move into thirteenth place on the all-time unadjusted domestic list.

Internationally, Barbie grossed an estimated $18.2 million this weekend from 75 international markets. That brings the film's international total to $745.5 million and the film's global haul to a massive $1.340 billion. Barbie is currently the second highest grossing film ever globally for Warner Bros. and on Monday the film is expected to surpass 2011's Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2 to become the highest grossing film ever for Warner Bros. globally. Barbie is also on the verge of passing the $1.359 billion current total global gross of The Super Mario Bros. Movie to become the highest grossing release of 2023 globally. Totals for Barbie by international market through Sunday include $114.9 million in the United Kingdom, $54.0 million in Mexico, $53.3 million in Australia, $51.4 million in Germany, $43.9 million in France, $43.4 million in Brazil, $34.9 million in China, $34.3 million in Spain, $34.1 million in Italy, $19.1 million in the Netherlands, $15.2 million in Argentina and $14.1 million in Poland.

Fellow Warner Bros. release Blue Beetle placed in third with an estimated $12.77 million. Blue Beetle held up well for a comic book based film in its second weekend, as the film was down 49.0 percent from last weekend. Like Barbie, Blue Beetle is also expected to receive a strong boost from National Cinema Day, as Blue Beetle is estimated to increase 45.5 percent from Saturday to gross $6.00 million on Sunday. Blue Beetle was also helped out this weekend thanks to good critical reviews, solid word of mouth, being a non-sequel and by last Sunday's performance being deflated somewhat by Tropical Storm Hilary hitting Southern California. Blue Beetle has grossed $46.31 million through ten days, which is just ahead of the $45.95 million ten-day start of fellow DCEU film Shazam! Fury of the Gods earlier this year (which declined a sharp 69.0 percent in its second weekend to gross $9.34 million). It is encouraging that Blue Beetle has already overtaken the pace of Shazam! Fury of the Gods given that Blue Beetle opened $5.08 million lower than Shazam! Fury of the Gods did. With that said the overall performance for Blue Beetle has still been lackluster, especially given the film's price-tag and that Blue Beetle is performing softer internationally than it has domestically.

Blue Beetle grossed an estimated $10.0 million this weekend from 71 international markets. Respective totals for Blue Beetle stand at $35.5 million internationally and at $81.8 million globally. Totals for Blue Beetle by international market through Sunday include $4.9 million in Mexico, $4.2 million in Brazil, $3.5 million in the United Kingdom, $2.8 million in France, $1.7 million in Indonesia and $1.4 million in Spain.

Universal's Oppenheimer claimed fourth place with an estimated $9.00 million. Oppenheimer held up especially well this weekend by declining a very slim 16.1 percent from last weekend. In addition to the boost from National Cinema Day, Oppenheimer also received a boost this weekend from returning to a number of IMAX screens. Oppenheimer grossed an estimated $2.3 million from domestic IMAX screens this weekend, which brings the film's domestic IMAX total $84.1 million. Oppenheimer remains the fourth highest grossing IMAX release of all-time domestically (behind only Avatar, Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar: The Way of Water). This weekend saw Oppenheimer pass the $292.59 million total domestic gross of 2010's Inception to become the highest grossing non-Dark Knight trilogy film for director Christopher Nolan domestically. Oppenheimer is also estimated to surpass the $300 million domestic mark on Sunday, as the film's estimated 38-day domestic total stands at $300.02 million.

Thanks in part to a $9.2 million debut in Italy, Oppenheimer held up especially well internationally once again this weekend. Oppenheimer grossed an estimated $29.1 million from 82 international markets this weekend. That brings the film's international total to $477.2 million and current global haul to $777.2 million. Additional totals for Oppenheimer by international market through Sunday include $67.5 million in the United Kingdom, $42.7 million in Germany, $37.2 million in France, $24.3 million in Australia, $19.7 million in Spain, $18.8 million in South Korea and $18.8 million in Mexico. Oppenheimer grossed an estimated $2.7 million from international IMAX screens this weekend. With respective IMAX totals of $70.4 million internationally and $154.5 million globally, Oppenheimer currently ranks as the sixth highest grossing IMAX release of all-time internationally and the fifth highest grossing IMAX release of all-time globally. Oppenheimer opens in China (including on IMAX screens) this coming Wednesday (August 30).

In their respective fourth weekends of release, Paramount's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem placed in fourth with an estimated $6.10 million and Warner Bros.'s Meg 2: The Trench followed in fifth with an estimated $5.10 million. Both films held up very nicely this weekend, as Meg 2: The Trench is estimated to decline 24.6 percent from last weekend, while Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem is estimated to decrease 28.6 percent (and it wouldn't be a surprise for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem to have a stronger than estimated hold on Sunday). Respective 24-day domestic totals stand at $98.14 million for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and at $74.43 million for Meg 2: The Trench.

While Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem continues to outperform Meg 2: The Trench domestically, Meg 2: The Trench continues to significantly outpace Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem internationally. This weekend Meg 2: The Trench grossed an estimated $15.2 million from 77 international markets (including a $2.9 million debut in Japan and $2.8 million from China – where the film has grossed $112.9 million to date). Respective totals for Meg 2: The Trench stand at $278.1 million internationally and at $352.5 million globally. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem grossed an estimated $4.2 million this weekend from 51 international markets. Respective totals for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem stand at $37.0 million internationally and at $135.1 million globally.

Just in time for National Cinema Day on Sunday, this weekend also saw a handful of new releases receive smaller nationwide launches. Roadside Attractions' Liam Neeson vehicle Retribution led the pack with an estimated eighth place start of $3.35 million (from 1,750 locations), Briarcliff Entertainment's The Hill followed in ninth with an estimated $2.52 million (from 1,570 locations), Bleecker Street's Helen Mirren led Golda started in fourteenth with an estimated $1.72 million (from just 883 locations) and Universal's 30th Anniversary re-issue of Jurassic Park landed in fifteenth place with an estimated $1.70 million (from 1,224 locations). Given modest pre-release expectations and location counts, all four films were off to relatively decent starts this weekend. It should also be noted that the re-issue of Jurassic Park received less than a single screen of full showtimes per day at many locations this weekend.

On the platform front, MGM and Orion's Bottoms was off to a strong start with an estimated $516,254 from 10 locations in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Austin. That gave the Emma Seligman directed R-rated teen comedy a terrific per-location average of $51,625 for the frame. Bottoms has gone over especially well with critics, which no doubt helped the film's platform launch this weekend. MGM notes that the initial audience for Bottoms skewed heavily towards moviegoers in the 18 – 34 age group (86 percent) and towards LGBTQ+ moviegoers (59 percent). Next weekend Bottoms will expand to an estimated 700 theatres on Friday (September 1).

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