Box Office Report: Barbenheimer Is The Real Deal

Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.

Weekend Estimates Update - July 21st, 2023 to July 23rd, 2023:

Barbenheimer weekend proved to be a historic weekend at the box office, with Warner Bros.'s Barbie leading the way with an estimated domestic debut of $155.00 million. The Greta Gerwig directed blockbuster film starring Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling registered this year's largest three-day opening weekend to date, as Barbie opened ahead of the $146.36 million opening weekend of The Super Mario Bros. Movie back in April (in the comparison between the two films, it should be noted that The Super Mario Bros. Movie opened on a Wednesday). Barbie also set a new opening weekend record for a film directed by a by a female director, as it just outpaced the $153.43 million launch of 2019's Captain Marvel (which was directed by Anna Boden, as well as Ryan Fleck). As we have noted in our earlier box office coverage this weekend, making the opening weekend performance of Barbie even more impressive is that the film was able to achieve an opening weekend performance this massive without help from higher priced IMAX or 3D screens. Barbie did play on some other premium format screens this weekend, such as Dolby Cinema and Cinemark XD (though even then, Barbie didn't have those formants entirely to itself). The opening weekend performance for Barbie also represented the fifth largest July opening of all-time, the fifth largest opening weekend of all-time for Warner Bros. and the 24th largest unadjusted domestic opening weekend of all-time (and if the film comes in just slightly higher than estimated, it will overtake the $155.08 million opening of 2016's Rogue One: A Star Wars Story for 23rd place). Barbie also features an ensemble cast that includes America Ferrera, Kate McKinnon, Michael Cera, Ariana Greenblatt and Will Ferrell (among others).

Barbie started out with an estimated $70.80 million on Friday (including an estimated $22.3 million from Thursday preview shows that began at 3PM and additional select Early Access sneaks on Wednesday night), declined 32.1 percent on Saturday to take in $48.10 million (which was nearly on par with Friday's performance without previews), and is estimated to decline 24.9 percent on Sunday to gross $36.10 million. The audience breakdown for Barbie skewed 65 percent female, 35 percent male, 60 percent over 25 and 40 percent under 25. However, only 19 percent of the film's audience was over 35, as a huge 41 percent of the film's audience was in the 25-34 age range. The top ten DMA markets for Barbie this weekend were Los Angeles, New York City, Dallas, Chicago, the California Bay Area, Washington DC, Houston, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Boston. Barbie received a strong A rating on CinemaScore and currently boasts a 90 percent Verified Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes, as the film looks to be going over very well with audiences. In addition, the film's demographic breakdown is likely to help generate strong summer midweek business for Barbie going forward.

Barbie was also exceptional internationally, with an estimated $182.0 million debut from 69 international markets. That places the global launch for Barbie at a massive $337.0 million. Barbie was especially strong in Latin America, as Warner Bros. notes that Barbie had the largest opening weekend ever for a Warner Bros. release in the Latin America region. Estimated debuts for Barbie by international market included $22.9 million in the United Kingdom, $22.3 million in Mexico, $15.9 million in Brazil, $14.6 million in Australia, $9.9 million in Spain, $9.8 million in France, $8.2 million in China, $8.2 million in Italy, $7.2 million in Germany, $4.4 million in Argentina, $4.1 million in Colombia and $3.6 million in the Netherlands.

Barbenheimer weekend wouldn't be complete without Universal's Oppenheimer, which debuted with a very impressive second place estimate of $80.50 million. The Christopher Nolan directed film starring Cillian Murphy as J. Robert Oppenheimer, absolutely soared past expectations, which had tended to range anywhere from $45 million to $65 million heading into the weekend. Oppenheimer easily registered the largest opening weekend ever for a film counter-programing against a $100 million opener over the same weekend. Due in part to the film's 180-minute run-time and in part to there only being so many screens available, Oppenheimer didn't receive as many showtimes per location as a film of this size would typically receive. Helping to make up for that disadvantage in a big way was that Oppenheimer grossed an estimated $21.1 million from domestic IMAX screens, which represented 26.2 percent of the film's overall domestic gross this weekend (which IMAX notes is a new all-time domestic IMAX percentage record). All premium formats (including IMAX) were responsible for 47 percent of this weekend's total domestic gross for Oppenheimer. The debut for Oppenheimer represented the sixth largest opening weekend of 2023 to date and the largest non-Dark Knight Trilogy opening weekend ever for Christopher Nolan (easily surpassing the $62.79 million opening weekend of Inception back in July of 2010). Oppenheimer also features Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Robert Downey Jr., Florence Pugh and Josh Hartnett.

Oppenheimer took in $33.08 million on Friday (which included an estimated $10.5 million from Thursday preview grosses that began at 5PM), declined a very reasonable 21.1 percent on Saturday to gross $26.11 million and is estimated to decrease 18.4 percent on Sunday to take in $21.31 million. Given the film's preview gross, audience demographics and strong initial word of mouth, it does seem that showtime capacity issues did prevent Oppenheimer from opening at least somewhat higher than it already did this weekend. The audience breakdown for Oppenheimer skewed 62 percent male, 38 percent female, 63 percent over 25 and 37 percent under 25. However, 60 percent of the film's audience was in the 18-34 age range, which strongly points towards Barbenheimer having helped give Oppenheimer a significant opening weekend boost this weekend. Like Barbie, Oppenheimer also looks to be going over very well with initial audiences, as the film also received an A rating on CinemaScore and currently has a 94 percent Verified Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes. In addition, the continued demand to see Oppenheimer on IMAX screens is sure to help initial holding power for the film going forward (including initial midweek grosses).

Internationally, Oppenheimer debuted with an estimated $93.7 million form 78 international markets. That places the global launch for Oppenheimer at $174.2 million. Estimated debuts for Oppenheimer by international market included $13.3 million in the United Kingdom, $7.0 million in India, $6.6 million in France, $6.4 million in Germany, $6.3 million in Australia, $4.5 million in Mexico, $3.9 million in Saudi Arabia, $3.5 million in Spain, $2.8 million in the U.A.E., $2.5 million in Brazil and $2.4 million in the Netherlands. Oppenheimer grossed an estimated $13.9 million from international IMAX screens, which represented 14.8 percent of the film's total international debut and places the global IMAX gross for Oppenheimer at $35.0 million. Oppenheimer is scheduled to open in South Korea on Tuesday, August 15 and in Italy on Wednesday August 23.

Overall, Barbenheimer weekend is estimated to total just over $300 million domestically. That represents only the fourth time that has happened and the first time since the opening weekend of Avengers: Endgame back in April of 2019 (which was prior to the COVID-19 Pandemic). Together, Barbie and Oppenheimer opened to a combined $235.5 million domestically and a combined $275.7 million internationally, for a combined global launch of $511.2 million.

Meanwhile, as had been expected, it was a very close race for third place this weekend between Angel Studios's Sound of Freedom and Paramount's Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One. Based on studio estimates, Sound of Freedom currently has the slight edge for third with an estimated $20.14 million. Sound of Freedom continues to display exceptional holding power, as the film declined just 26.2 percent from last weekend. In addition to continuing to benefit from strong word of mouth and becoming a news story of its own, Sound of Freedom was also helped out this weekend by holding onto a high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend and by serving as more of an alternative choice than Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One for the segment of the moviegoing population not interested in either Barbie or Oppenheimer this weekend. Sound of Freedom has grossed $124.75 million through 20 days of domestic release. That already gives Sound of Freedom a current total gross to opening weekend ratio of 6.34 to 1 (though the ratio is inflated from the film being a midweek opener). And the break-out performer is still showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon.

Paramount's Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One is currently in fourth place with an estimated $19.50 million. That was down a very sharp 64.3 percent from last weekend's three-day opening, which was also deflated from Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One having a midweek opening of its own. Obviously, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One took a large hit from Barbie and Oppenheimer this weekend, especially since Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One lost its IMAX screens to Oppenheimer. The twelve-day domestic total for Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One stands at $118.75 million. After this weekend's decline, it will be especially important for the expensive Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One to try to stabilize as soon as possible. Internationally, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One grossed an estimated $55.0 million this weekend from 71 international markets. Respective totals for Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One stand at $252.1 million internationally and at $370.9 million globally.

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