Box Office Predictions: A Tight Race Between ‘Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse’ And ‘Transformers: Rise Of The Beasts’
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: June 9th - June 11th, 2023
It's looking to be a close race for first place at the domestic box office this weekend between Paramount's Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (in its first weekend) and Sony's Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (in its second weekend).
Last weekend saw Sony's Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse open with a spectacular $120.66 million. In addition to last weekend's debut, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse has been displaying strong initial holding power during the midweek this week. Like the film's predecessor, 2018's Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse has gone over very well with critics and audiences alike (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse received a strong A rating on CinemaScore). Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will also be helped out this weekend by holding onto a very high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend and could also receive a bit of a boost from moviegoers wanting to catch the film (or catch it again) before Warner Bros.'s The Flash enters the marketplace next weekend. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will take a hit from losing its IMAX screens to Transformers: Rise of the Beasts this weekend, though Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will be holding onto some of its non-IMAX premium screens. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will decline a very respectable 51.1 percent to gross $59.0 million this weekend, which would likely be good enough for the film to remain in first place.
This weekend's one new wide release is Paramount's Transformers: Rise of the Beasts. The film represents the seventh film within the Transformers film series. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts was directed by Steven Caple Jr. and stars Anthony Ramos and Dominique Fishback. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts will be playing in 3,678 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM (the film also had select early access screenings on Wednesday). Critical reviews for Transformers: Rise of the Beasts have been mixed. The Transformers series has seen its drawing power at the box office diminish over the years, with the last installment of the franchise, 2018's Bumblebee having a $21.65 million pre-Christmas opening, before going on to finish its domestic run with $127.20 million. A total domestic gross in the same general neighborhood as Bumblebee for Transformers: Rise of the Beasts wouldn't be surprising, but as a summer release, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts will get off to a much larger opening weekend start. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts could debut in a very close second place this weekend with $57.0 million.
Disney's The Little Mermaid is coming off of a second weekend performance which saw the film decline a sizable, but understandable 56.7 percent to gross $41.39 million. Thus far The Little Mermaid has been more front-loaded than the 2019 reimagining of Aladdin was (that film declined 53.2 percent in its second weekend to gross $42.84 million). In its third weekend, Aladdin declined 42.4 percent to take in $24.68 million. However, Aladdin lost 671 locations in its third weekend, while The Little Mermaid will be holding onto all of its locations this weekend. That should help this weekend's percentage hold for The Little Mermaid in the comparison with Aladdin. The Little Mermaid should also be impacted less this weekend by Transformers: Rise of the Beasts than it was last weekend by Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Look for The Little Mermaid to decrease a solid 40.8 percent this weekend to take third place with $24.5 million.
As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Disney and Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 could re-stabilize this weekend by declining just 30.7 percent to take fourth place with $7.4 million. After debuting in line with expectations with $12.36 million last weekend, Disney / 20th Century's The Boogeyman could decrease a very respectable 48.2 percent to round out this weekend's top five with $6.4 million. Universal's Fast X, which has been quite front-loaded thus far, could finally start to stabilize this weekend by slowing 43.7 percent to take sixth with $5.4 million.
Read more at BoxOfficeReport.com.
