*Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of* *BoxOfficeReport.com*.

Weekend Box Office Predictions: June 2nd - June 4th, 2023

Sony's Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is set to impress in a big way at the box office this weekend. The first sequel to 2018's Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, was directed by Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, and Justin K. Thompson and features the vocal talent of Shameik Moore, Hailee Steinfeld, Brian Tyree Henry, Luna Lauren Vélez, Jake Johnson and Jason Schwartzman. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is playing in 4,313 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. The extremely well-received Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse had a pre-Christmas opening weekend of $35.36 million and went on to finish its domestic run with $190.24 million. As the first sequel to a very popular film that displayed very strong holding power and in going from a pre-Christmas release date to a summer release date, those factors alone will lead to a far larger opening weekend performance for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse this time around. And as was the case with Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, reviews for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse have been exceptional. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is no doubt one of the more anticipated films of this summer and will have a good chance of being this summer's highest grossing film domestically when everything is said and done. One factor that could limit break-out potential for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse from reaching even greater heights this weekend is that the film may not have quite enough showtimes to fulfill all opening weekend demand, due to the overall amount of high-profile competition in the current marketplace. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will debut with $123.0 million this weekend. That would represent the second largest opening weekend of 2023 to date domestically and the sixth largest opening weekend ever for the month of June.

Disney's The Little Mermaid is coming off of respective three-day and four-day holiday weekend debuts of $95.58 million and $118.82 million. That was just below the lower end of consensus opening weekend expectations for the film. While The Little Mermaid displayed some initial front-loading last weekend, the live-action reimagining has held up nicely on Tuesday and Wednesday, though in general summer midweek grosses for The Little Mermaid should be relatively strong due in part to the film skewing quite heavily towards female moviegoers, as well as family audiences. Word of mouth for The Little Mermaid looks to be very good, as the film received a strong A rating on CinemaScore. However, as for this weekend, The Little Mermaid will take a hit from losing IMAX and other premium screens to vSpider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (which will also compete with The Little Mermaid for family audiences). Back in June of 2019, Disney's live-action reimagining of Aladdin declined 53.2 percent in its second weekend to gross $42.84 million. The Little Mermaid likely won't hold up that well this weekend, but the film's second weekend percentage decline may prove to be a respectable one with all factors considered. Look for The Little Mermaid to decrease a sharp 58.1 percent to place in second this weekend with $40.0 million.

Also opening in wide release this weekend is Disney / 20th Century's The Boogeyman. The PG-13 rated horror film based on a short story by Stephen King, was directed by Rob Savage and stars Sophie Thatcher, Chris Messina, Vivien Lyra Blair, and David Dastmalchian. The Boogeyman is playing in 3,205 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. Critical reviews for The Boogeyman have been mixed. PG-13 rated horror films often exceed expectations at the box office, but that may prove to be more difficult for The Boogeyman due in large part to younger audiences being much more likely to watch Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse or The Little Mermaid instead this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a third place start of $12.0 million for The Boogeyman this weekend.

Last weekend Universal's Fast X took second place with respective three-day and four-day weekend grosses of $23.03 million and $28.54 million, while Disney and Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 followed closely behind in third place with respective three-day and four-day grosses of $20.81 million and $26.83 million. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is likely to move ahead of Fast X in this weekend's box office rankings, thanks in part to better word of mouth, losing fewer locations this weekend and Fast X losing the remainder of its IMAX showtimes. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 could decline 44.7 percent this weekend to take fourth place with $11.5 million and Fast X could decrease 63.1 percent to follow in fifth with $8.5 million. And with new direct competition from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Universal's The Super Mario Bros. Movie could fall a sizable 50.1 percent to place in sixth with $3.2 million.

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