Weekend Estimates Update - September 29th, 2023 to October 1st, 2023:

Weekend Actuals Update:

With actuals, Paramount's PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie finished a bit under its weekend estimate, but still comfortably took first place this weekend with a debut of $22.764 million.

Meanwhile, Lionsgate's Saw X came in higher than its studio estimate with a second place start of $18.309 million, while Disney, 20th Century and New Regency's The Creator finished slightly ahead of its weekend estimate with a third place launch of $14.080 million.

Other weekend actuals for the frame include: The Nun II ($4.799 million), The Blind ($4.353 million 3-day / $5.198 million 4-day), A Haunting in Venice ($3.626 million), Dumb Money ($3.326 million), The Equalizer 3 ($2.701 million), Expend4bles ($2.508 million), Barbie ($1.425 million), My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 ($1.170 million), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem ($0.777 million), It Lives Inside ($0.735 million), Blue Beetle ($0.715 million), Oppenheimer ($0.612 million) and Gran Turismo ($0.500 million).

Weekend Estimates Update:

Paramount's PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was off to an impressive first place start this weekend with an estimated $23.00 million. The second theatrical computer animated PAW Patrol film exceeded expectations and opened a significant 74.9 percent ahead of the $13.15 million start of PAW Patrol: The Movie back in August of 2021. In comparison to PAW Patrol: The Movie, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie clearly benefited from opening exclusively in theatres (whereas PAW Patrol: The Movie opened day-and-date theatrically and via streaming on Paramount+) and from opening in significantly more locations as a result (PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie opened in 3,989 locations as opposed to 3,184 locations for PAW Patrol: The Movie). PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie also benefited from opening in a marketplace with very little current competition for family audiences. Heading into the weekend, many thought that it could prove to be a close three-way race for first place this weekend, but PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie ended up winning the weekend fairly comfortably (with an estimated $5.00 million lead over second place film Saw X). With strong word of mouth (the film received an A rating on CinemaScore), opening exclusively in theatres this time around and the lack of any new animated films opening in wide release this October, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie will have a good chance of holding up better than PAW Patrol: The Movie did (which was fairly front-loaded for a family film). To date, PAW Patrol: The Movie has grossed $23.1 million internationally from 45 international markets, for a global take of $46.1 million. Like PAW Patrol: The Movie, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was also directed by Cal Brunker.

Lionsgate's Saw X placed in second with an estimated $18.00 million. The tenth installment of the Saw horror film series opened in line with expectations and was off to a good start with the film's modest price-tag in mind. Saw X also opened a significant 105.7 percent ahead of the $8.75 million start of Spiral back in May of 2021 and 8.2 percent ahead of the $16.64 million launch of Jigsaw back in October of 2017. This weekend's healthy start for Saw X was welcome news for Lionsgate after the disappointing performance of the studio's Expend4bles (which experienced a very sharp 69.0 percent second weekend decline to place in ninth with an estimated $2.50 million). Saw X had been largely expected to open in third place this weekend (albeit in a close third place), but was ultimately able to open ahead of fellow new release The Creator by a comfortable amount to place in second. Saw X may have received a bit of a last-minute boost from stronger than expected critical reviews (whereas critical reviews for The Creator didn't end up as strong as had been largely expected). In addition to going over well with critics, Saw X also looks to be going over well with audiences, as the film received a B rating on CinemaScore, which is very solid for a horror film. With that said, Saw X did display initial front-loading this weekend (the film had an estimated opening weekend to opening day ratio of 2.25 to 1 after starting out with $8.00 million on Friday) and will have to deal with new direct competition for horror fans next weekend with Universal's The Exorcist: Believer entering the marketplace. Internationally, Saw X grossed an estimated $11.3 million this weekend from 50 international markets, for a global launch of $29.3 million. Saw X was directed by Kevin Greutert and stars Tobin Bell, Shawnee Smith, Synnøve Macody Lund, Steven Brand, Michael Beach and Renata Vaca.

Meanwhile, Disney, 20th Century and New Regency's The Creator had to settle for a third place start with an estimated $14.00 million. Heading into the weekend, consensus expectations for the sci-fi film had been in the high-teen millions to low-twenty millions range. In addition, The Creator was also significantly more expensive than both PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie and Saw X, and The Creator also had the benefit of playing on IMAX screens (the film grossed an estimated $3.0 million from domestic IMAX screens, which represented a significant 21.4 percent of this weekend's overall domestic gross). In addition to likely taking a hit from critical reviews being weaker than expected and rather average on the average, The Creator likely also took a bigger percentage hit than most other films this weekend by the flash flooding that hit New York City on Friday. The Creator also had trouble appealing to both female moviegoers and younger moviegoers, as 78 percent of the film's audience was over 25 and 69 percent of the film's audience was male. With all of that said, more than anything, it appears that The Creator is a case of a film where a relatively high level of excitement for the film among online movie fans ultimately didn't transfer over to more cause moviegoers (to a sizable degree in this case). The Creator opened 26.3 percent below the $19.00 million start of Disney and 20th Century's sci-fi film Ad Astra back in September of 2019. The Creator performed similarly internationally, with an estimated $18.3 million from 48 international markets. That places the film's global launch at $32.3 million. The Creator grossed an estimated $2.2 million from international IMAX screens, for a global IMAX take of $5.2 million. The Creator was directed by Gareth Edwards and stars John David Washington, Gemma Chan, Ken Watanabe, Sturgill Simpson, Madeleine Yuna Voyles and Allison Janney.

After leading the domestic box office each of the past three weekends, Warner Bros. and New Line's The Nun II placed in fourth this weekend with an estimated $4.68 million. That represented a 45.3 percent decline from last weekend, which was a very respectable hold given the amount of new competition in the marketplace this weekend (especially the new direct competition from Saw X), as well as the mentioned flash flooding that hit New York City on Friday. The 24-day domestic total for The Nun II stands at $76.76 million. Internationally, The Nun II grossed an estimated $12.8 million this weekend from 75 international markets. Respective totals for The Nun II stand at $154.4 million internationally and at a strong $231.2 million globally.

Fathom Events and Tread Lively's The Blind was off to a surprisingly strong start with an estimated fifth place gross of $4.12 million over the weekend. With the addition of Thursday's performance, The Blind has grossed an estimated $4.98 million in four days. Even by event screening release standards, The Blind, a biopic about Phil Robertson and the Robertson family, seemed to be flying under the radar prior to release, but The Blind ended up being a relatively strong performer this weekend, especially given the film's location count of 1,715 locations and that at many locations The Blind only received a few showtimes per day. The Blind was directed by Andrew Hyatt and stars Aron Von Andrian and Amelia Eve.

Disney and 20th Century's A Haunting in Venice placed in sixth with an estimated $3.80 million. That was down a solid 39.7 percent from last weekend, as A Haunting in Venice stabilized nicely this weekend. With a 17-day domestic total of $31.62 million, A Haunting in Venice is running just behind the $32.75 million 17-day gross of last year's Death on the Nile (though that film declined only 31.5 percent in its third weekend to gross $4.49 million). A Haunting in Venice continued to perform stronger internationally this weekend with an estimated $7.0 million from 52 international markets. That brings the film's international total to $58.2 million and global total to $89.8 million.

After a decent expansion into moderate release last weekend, Sony's Dumb Money was unable to keep up the momentum this weekend upon expanding to wide release with an estimated seventh place take of $3.50 million. Despite playing in 4.58 times as many locations this weekend (2,837) as last weekend (619), this weekend's performance for Dumb Money represented an increase of just 44.3 percent from last weekend. Although critical reviews have been very good on the average, there isn't much demand to see Dumb Money in theatres, especially outside of larger cities. And like The Creator, Dumb Money likely also took a larger percentage hit than most other films this weekend from the flooding in New York City. The 17-day domestic total for Dumb Money stands at $7.30 million and with a modest estimated per-location average of $1,233 this weekend; it will be difficult for the film to hold onto showtimes and screens after next week. Dumb Money was directed by Craig Gillespie and features an ensemble cast that includes Paul Dano, Pete Davidson, Vincent D'Onofrio, America Ferrera, Nick Offerman, Anthony Ramos, Sebastian Stan, Shailene Woodley, and Seth Rogen.

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