Box Office Predictions: ‘Wonka’ Set To Sweeten Moviegoers
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: December 15th, 2023 to December 17th, 2023
This weekend sees the launch of the first of Warner Bros.'s three high-profile December releases this holiday season, as Wonka enters the marketplace this weekend. Next week will also see the release of Warner's Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom on Friday, December 22 and The Color Purple on Christmas Day. Wonka serves as a Willy Wonka origin story and was directed by Paul King. The film stars Timothée Chalamet as Wonka and also features an ensemble cast that includes Calah Lane, Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Olivia Colman and Hugh Grant. Wonka is playing in 4,203 locations this weekend, will have a fairly high amount of average showtimes per location, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. On the average, critical reviews for the film have been good. In addition to appealing to Willy Wonka fans, Wonka should also appeal to fans of the Paddington films, which were also directed by King.
This past weekend Wonka was off to a very promising start internationally with an estimated $43.2 million from 37 international markets (the film will be opening in an additional 40 international markets this weekend), which is a good sign for the film's domestic performance. Back in July of 2005, Warner's Johnny Depp-led Charlie and the Chocolate Factory debuted with $56.18 million and went on to gross $206.46 million domestically. As a pre-Christmas December release, it will be difficult for Wonka to match the opening weekend performance of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, but the film will have a very good chance of ultimately having a higher total domestic gross, especially if Wonka goes over well with audiences. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Wonka will start out with $40.5 million this weekend.
Last weekend saw GKIDS's release of Studio Ghibli's The Boy and the Heron outpace its late-rising expectations with a first place start of $13.01 million. The critically acclaimed Hayao Miyazaki directed anime film looks to be going over well with audiences, as The Boy and the Heron received a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore. Midweek grosses for the film have been strong this week, though that is typically the case for anime films in their first week of release. Anime films usually experience especially sharp second weekend declines, but due in part to the film's overall reception and in part to past Studio Ghibli films not having been as front-loaded as other anime films, The Boy and the Heron likely won't be as front-loaded as more recent anime films have tended to be (especially anime films connected to an anime series). With that said, there should still be some initial front-loading for the film, especially since several days of preview grosses were included in the opening weekend gross for The Boy and the Heron. The Boy and the Heron could decline a very respectable 47.0 percent this weekend to place in second with $6.9 million.
Lionsgate's The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes and Toho International's Godzilla Minus One both held up very well last weekend, as The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes declined 34.4 percent to take second with $9.30 million, while Godzilla Minus One decreased just 24.8 percent to follow in third with $8.59 million. With not as much new product entering the marketplace this weekend as is usually the case for this pre-Christmas frame, holdovers in general should hold up better this weekend than they typically do. Look for both The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes and Godzilla Minus One to continue to hold up well this weekend, as The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes could slow just 27.9 percent to take in $6.7 million and Godzilla Minus One could decrease a similar 26.7 percent to register $6.3 million for the frame.
Despite the new competition for family audiences from Wonka, Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Trolls Band Together and Disney's Wish could also both hold up well this weekend, especially since both computer animated films have been holding up well during the midweek this week. Trolls Band Together could decrease 26.1 percent to take in $4.5 million this weekend, while Wish could decline a similar 24.6 percent for a weekend gross of $4.0 million.
On the platform front, this weekend will see Disney and Searchlight's Poor Things expand from 9 locations to 82 locations. Last weekend the critically acclaimed Yorgos Lanthimos directed film starring Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe grossed $661,230, for a very strong per-location average of $73,470. Given the strength of last weekend's platform launch and the awards season buzz for the film, Poor Things should have a strong expansion this weekend and could find itself towards the bottom of this weekend's top ten for all films. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Poor Things will gross $2.05 million this weekend, which would give the film a per-location average of $25,000 for the frame.
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