Box Office Predictions: Some Turtles And A Meg To Try (And Fail) To Unseat ‘Barbie’ From The Top Spot
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: August 4th, 2023 to August 6th, 2023
Even with two new high profile releases entering the marketplace, Warner Bros.'s Barbie is set to lead the weekend box office with ease for a third consecutive frame. Last weekend Barbie had a fabulous second weekend hold by declining just 42.6 percent to gross $93.01 million (which represented the seventh largest unadjusted second weekend gross of all-time). Barbie has continued to roll during the midweek, as the film's $15.30 million Tuesday gross was down 41.2 percent from the previous Tuesday. On Thursday, Barbie is set to surpass the $400 million domestic mark and the film should have no problem zooming past the $450 million domestic mark over the upcoming weekend. With the added presence of Paramount's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and fellow Warner Bros. release Meg 2: The Trench entering the marketplace this weekend, Barbie will be taking a larger percentage hit to its average showtimes per location this weekend than it did last weekend, but at the same time the film is still holding onto a sizable percentage of its showtimes and also won't be coming off of a weekend performance than includes preview grosses. Look for Barbie to decline 37.6 percent from last weekend for a first place take of $58.0 million. That would represent the eighth largest unadjusted third weekend gross of all-time.
Paramount's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem opened on Wednesday in 3,513 locations. The computer animated film was directed and co-written by Jeff Rowe, while Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg were co-writers and producers of the film. There has been a fairly high level of interest around Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and that interest should only continue to grow going forward thanks in part to the film's very strong critical reviews (which are easily the strongest ever for a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles theatrical film). Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem also looks to be going over extremely well with initial audiences, as the film has already received a strong A rating on CinemaScore. In all likelihood, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem will be the highest grossing new film domestically to be released this August.
On Tuesday, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem grossed an estimated $3.85 million from preview shows that began at 2PM. That represented a promising 55 percent of the $7.00 million Tuesday preview gross for Paramount's Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One in a similar situation a few weeks ago. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One grossed $78.49 million through its first Sunday, a comparison would translate into a five-day start of just over $43.0 million for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. As an animated film with family appeal, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem likely won't be as front-loaded towards Tuesday previews as Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One was, though at the same time Mutant Mayhem may be more Wednesday and Thursday heavy and a bit less weekend heavy than Dead Reckoning Part One was. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem will take second place over the three-day weekend with $32.5 million and will start out with $48.5 million over the film's first five days (including previews).
After two consecutive exceptional second place performances, Universal's Oppenheimer may place just behind Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem for third place this weekend. This past weekend, Oppenheimer declined 43.4 percent to gross $46.71 million. Oppenheimer and Barbie experienced very similar percentage declines last weekend and that may very well be the case once again this weekend. On Tuesday, Oppenheimer grossed $6.98 million for the day, which was down 42.2 percent from the previous Tuesday. On either Thursday or Friday, Oppenheimer will pass the $200 million domestic mark. Oppenheimer will once again be helped out this weekend by the continued high level of demand to watch the film on IMAX screens. A very solid decline of 37.9 percent from last weekend would transfer into a third weekend gross of $29.0 million for Oppenheimer.
Also opening in wide release this weekend is Warner Bros.'s Meg 2: The Trench. The follow-up to the 2018 break-out hit The Meg was directed by Ben Wheatley, sees the return of star Jason Statham and also stars Wu Jing. Meg 2: The Trench will be playing in an estimated 3,800 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. Back in August of 2018, The Meg was a major surprise at the box office with a debut of $45.40 million, before going on to finish its domestic run with $145.44 million. However, a sequel to The Meg likely isn't a sequel that audiences wanted all that badly, and Meg 2: The Trench could also see the Barbenheimer phenomenon limit its box office potential more so than most other late July / early August releases. Last weekend Disney's Haunted Mansion debuted with $24.08 million and this weekend Meg 2: The Trench could very well be looking at an opening weekend performance in the same neighborhood. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Meg 2: The Trench will debut in fourth place this weekend with $24.5 million.
As for some of the holdovers further down in this weekend's rankings, Disney's Haunted Mansion will likely take a hit from both of this weekend's new releases, which could help lead to Haunted Mansion declining a sharp 57.2 percent to place in fifth with $10.3 million. Angel Studios's Sound of Freedom could decrease a solid 40.7 percent to take sixth with $7.6 million, while Paramount's Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One could finally start to stabilize this weekend by slowing just 34.0 percent to follow in seventh with $7.0 million. And after exceeding expectations with a $10.43 million start last weekend, A24's well-received Talk To Me may decline a very solid 44.4 percent for an eighth place gross of $5.8 million.
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