Box Office Predictions: The ‘Venom’ Swan Song Should Easily Take #1
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: October 25th, 2024 - October 27th, 2024
Sony's Venom: The Last Dance is set to comfortably lead the domestic box office this weekend, but the third installment of the Venom series is also expected to open significantly below each of its two predecessors. Venom: The Last Dance is playing in 4,131 locations this weekend, is playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. Venom: The Last Dance was directed by Kelly Marcel and sees the return of series star Tom Hardy. Critical reviews for the film have been largely negative, but the previous two Venom films weren't favorites with critics either. Back in October of 2018, Venom debuted with $80.26 million, while Venom: Let There Be Carnage opened even higher during October of 2021 with $90.03 million. Unfortunately, a sizable portion of the Venom fanbase doesn't appear to be all that excited about Venom: The Last Dance, as some sequel fatigue looks to be kicking into gear for the series. It also feels like Venom: The Last Dance is lacking a must-see angle to really get the fanbase excited about the film. Still, given the size of the Venom fanbase, Venom: The Last Dance should still be able to make an impact at the box office this weekend and it's possible that the combination of opening the weekend before Halloween and not much being expected at the box office from this year's early November releases could lead to some relative back-loading for Venom: The Last Dance. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Venom: The Last Dance will debut with $61.5 million. That would represent the eighth largest unadjusted opening weekend ever for the month of October.
Paramount's Smile 2 is coming off of a very solid first place start of $23.02 million last weekend. Smile 2 has gone over well with both critics and audiences (the film received a B rating on CinemaScore) and could receive a bit of a boost this weekend from this weekend being the last frame prior to Halloween this year. As a sequel, Smile 2 won't be able to match the exceptional 18.0 percent second weekend decline of the first Smile, but the possibility still exists that Smile 2 may have more built-in back-loading than usual for a high-profile horror sequel. A solid second weekend decline of 43.5 percent would transfer into a second place take of $13.0 million for Smile 2 this weekend.
Third and fourth place will likely be occupied by Universal and DreamWorks Animation's The Wild Robot and Cineverse's Terrifier 3. Last weekend The Wild Robot decreased by just 27.9 percent to place in second with $10.10 million, while Terrifier 3 had a respectable second weekend decline of 50.9 percent to follow closely behind in third with $9.30 million. This weekend The Wild Robot might decline a bit more than last weekend and Terrifier 3 will likely hold up better this weekend than it did last weekend. Look for The Wild Robot to decrease 30.7 percent to place in third with $7.0 million and for Terrifier 3 to decline 39.8 percent to take fourth place with $5.6 million.
It may prove to be a very close race for fifth place this weekend between Focus' Conclave and A24's We Live in Time. Conclave, which was directed by Edward Berger and stars Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci and John Lithgow, opens in 1,753 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. We Live in Time, which was directed by John Crowley and stars Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh, will expand to a wide 2,924 locations this weekend on the heels of last weekend's promising estimated $4.19 million performance from 985 locations. The religious subject matter of Conclave and initial location count will make a break-out debut for the film difficult, but at the same time Conclave should be helped out by very strong critical reviews (perhaps more so beyond this weekend). While We Live in Time went wide enough last weekend to satisfy some of the initial demand for the film, the size of this weekend's expansion and the positive reception to the film could help lead to an increase this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective weekend grosses of $5.3 million for Conclave and $5.2 million for We Live in Time (which would represent a healthy 24.2 percent increase over last weekend).
Read more at BoxOfficeReport.com.
