Box Office Predictions: ‘The Nun II’ Set To Scare The Competition
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: September 8th, 2023 to September 10th, 2023
After the successful start of Sony's The Equalizer 3 last weekend, another sequel is set to lead the way at the box office this weekend with the release of Warner Bros.'s The Nun II. The R-rated horror sequel (and latest installment of The Conjuring Universe) was directed by Michael Chaves and stars Taissa Farmiga, Jonas Bloquet, Storm Reid, Anna Popplewell and Bonnie Aarons. The Nun II is playing in 3,728 locations this weekend, is playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. Critical reviews for The Nun II have been mixed, but that does represent an improvement over the largely poor critical reviews for 2018's The Nun. Back in September of 2018, The Nun had a breakout opening weekend performance of $53.81 million, though the film was front-loaded and finished its domestic run with $117.45 million. There doesn't seem to be anywhere near as much demand for The Nun II as there was for The Nun, and The Nun II may find itself in a similar situation as Warner Bros.'s recent Meg 2: The Trench (which opened with $30.00 million domestically); as a sequel that while still having an audience also isn't a sequel that audiences were dying to see either. With A Haunting in Venice, Saw X and The Exorcist: Believer all entering the marketplace over the next month, audiences will also soon have plenty of other choices for their scares in the lead-up to Halloween. Look for The Nun II to debut in first place this weekend with $30.0 million.
Sony's The Equalizer 3 is coming off of respective three-day and four-day debuts of $34.60 million and $42.82 million, which represented the second largest Labor Day weekend opening of all-time. In addition to going over fairly well with critics, The Equalizer 3 looks to be going over well with audiences after receiving a strong A rating on CinemaScore. At the same time, The Equalizer 3 will be taking a hit to its average showtimes per location this weekend, including losing its IMAX screens, and could also be affected more than most other holdovers by the start of the NFL season this weekend. Previously, 2014's The Equalizer declined 45.1 percent in its second weekend (to gross $18.75 million), while 2018's The Equalizer 2 decreased 61.1 percent in its second weekend (to gross $14.02 million in the face of a debuting Mission: Impossible – Fallout). The Equalizer 3 likely won't decline as sharply as The Equalizer 2 did in its second weekend, but should still experience a second weekend decline closer to that of The Equalizer 2 than that of The Equalizer. A sharp 58.1 percent decrease would transfer into a second place take of $14.5 million this weekend for The Equalizer 3.
Also opening in wide release this weekend is Focus's My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3. The romantic comedy was directed by and stars Nia Vardalos and also stars John Corbett. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 is opening in 3,647 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. As was the case with My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 doesn't look to be going over well with critics. Back in March of 2016, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 debuted with $17.86 million and went on to finish with $59.69 million domestically. There appears to be less interest this time around and My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 in particular may be a film that audiences decide to wait until streaming for instead. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 opening to roughly half of the debut of its predecessor feels reasonable. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 will debut in third place this weekend with $9.3 million.
One of this weekend's bigger stories could prove to be Yash Raj Films' Jawan. The Hindi-language action thriller was directed by Atlee and stars Shah Rukh Khan. Jawan is being released in a semi-wide 827 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows. Back in January, Yash Raj Films had success with Pathaan, which also starred Shah Rukh Khan. That film had an opening weekend of $6.89 million (from 695 locations), after a mid-week Wednesday opening for a five-day start of $9.49 million. There appears to be even more anticipation for Jawan than there was for Pathaan, and the extra locations and Thursday previews will help in the box office comparison as well. Jawan could challenge My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 for third place this weekend with an impressive start of $8.9 million.
After four weekends in first place followed by three weekends in second place, Warner Bros.'s Barbie will likely round out this weekend's top five. Barbie held up well over Labor Day weekend, as the film declined a solid 32.4 percent over the three-day frame to gross $10.21 million. This weekend Barbie is holding onto most of its locations from last weekend and to a fairly high percentage of its showtimes, and the blockbuster film is also likely to be impacted a bit less by the start of the NFL season than most other holdovers this weekend. Barbie could decline a solid 38.3 percent to gross $6.3 million this weekend.
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