Box Office Predictions: ‘The Marvels’ To Debut In First With A Not-So-Marvelous Gross
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: November 10th, 2023 to November 12th, 2023
This weekend will see Disney and Marvel's The Marvels lead the box office upon arriving in theatres. However, the latest installment of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) clearly isn't generating the type of interest levels normally seen for a Marvel film (especially for an installment of the MCU). The Marvels, which is a sequel to 2019's Captain Marvel, was directed by Nia DaCosta and stars Brie Larson, Teyonah Parris, Iman Vellani and Samuel L. Jackson. The Marvels is playing in 4,030 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. On the average, critical reviews for The Marvels have been mixed, but more so positive than negative. Back in 2019, Captain Marvel had a break-out performance when it debuted with $153.43 million and went on to gross $426.83 million domestically. As impressive as the performance of Captain Marvel was, that performance was helped out greatly by both the film being the last MCU release prior to Avengers: Endgame and by the film representing the first solo female-led MCU film. This time around The Marvels doesn't have external factors to benefit from and on top of that the film's marketing campaign just hasn't gone over very well. A number of the recent Phase Four / Phase Five installments of the MCU not having gone over as well as the majority of earlier MCU films won't do any favors for The Marvels either. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Marvels will debut with just $47.5 million this weekend. That would represent the lowest opening weekend performance ever for a film within the MCU (a mark that is currently held by 2008's The Incredible Hulk with $55.41 million).
In other Marvel Cinematic Universe news (breaking just prior to the publishing of this weekend's predictions), Disney has just announced new theatrical release dates for a numbers of upcoming Phase Five and Phase Six MCU films. The upcoming Untitled Deadpool Sequel is now scheduled for July 26, 2024, Captain America: Brave New World will now arrive on February 14, 2025, Thunderbolts will now launch on July 25, 2025 and Blade will now open on November 7, 2025. Disney's Mufasa: The Lion King also has a new release date – December 20, 2024.
After being understandably front-loaded during the first few weekends of its run, AMC Theatres Distribution's release of Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film stabilized in a major (and surprising) way last weekend by declining just 11.8 percent to place in second with $13.61 million. With the arrival of The Marvels, Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film will be playing in 756 fewer locations this weekend than it was last weekend, and the concert film is also taking a hit to its average showtimes per location at remaining locations as well. The loss of theatres and showtimes will take a toll on Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film this weekend, but at the same time, with the momentum from last weekend the concert film could still be in store for a very solid hold (especially with the theatre count loss in mind). Look for Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film to decline 39.8 percent to hold steady in second place with $8.2 million.
Last weekend saw Universal and Blumhouse's Five Nights at Freddy's fall a very sharp 76.2 percent on its way to holding onto first place in its second weekend with $19.00 million. While in the bigger picture Five Nights at Freddy's has already had an exceptional performance at the box office, the PG-13 video game based horror film has yet to stabilize (due largely to so many fans of the Five Nights at Freddy's video game series having rushed out to see the film on opening weekend) and is highly likely to experience another very sharp decline this weekend. A 62.1 percent decrease from last weekend would transfer into a third place take of $7.2 million for Five Nights at Freddy's this weekend.
As we inch closer to awards season, a number of the critically acclaimed films currently in the marketplace could be in store for good holds this weekend. Last weekend Paramount and Apple's Killers of the Flower Moon stabilized very nicely by declining 26.2 percent to place in third with $6.87 million. With Killers of the Flower Moon losing its IMAX screens to The Marvels this weekend, Killers of the Flower Moon likely won't hold up quite as well this weekend, but the film could still be in store for a very solid 31.6 percent decline to place in fourth with $4.7 million. And after good performances last weekend by both A24's Priscilla (an estimated $5.08 million from 1,359 locations) and Pantelion's Radical (a $2.66 million start from just 419 locations), both films are expected to receive expansions this weekend (though this weekend's location counts for both films aren't currently yet available). The Sofia Coppola directed Priscilla could decrease just 25.3 percent to gross $3.8 million and the Eugenio Derbez-led Radical might decline only 21.0 percent for a second weekend take of $2.1 million.
This weekend also sees the release of Yash Raj Films' Tiger 3 (a Hindi-language action thriller sequel from India), Sony and AFFIRM's Journey to Bethlehem (a faith-based Nativity musical) and the moderate / semi-wide expansion of Focus' The Holdovers (the critically acclaimed film directed by Alexander Payne and starring Paul Giamatti). Journey to Bethlehem will be playing in 2,002 locations this weekend, The Holdovers will be playing in 778 locations and Tiger 3 will be playing in 750 locations. While it has the lowest location count of the three films (and also doesn't open until Saturday), Tiger 3 could still be the highest grossing of the three films this weekend with $3.9 million. Journey to Bethlehem could debut with $3.7 million this weekend (with the potential to hold up well in the lead-up to Christmas - if the film can hold onto screens and showtimes) and The Holdovers could take in $2.4 million this weekend (while also having the potential to hold up well in the weeks ahead).
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